A short time ago, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, claiming it was necessary to root out North Korean sympathizers in the the South. So far it hasn’t gone like your standard presidential coup. Unsurprisingly, the leader of the opposition denounced the move. But then so too did the head of Yoon’s own political party. Yoon is a Trump-like figure and he’s been mired in declining popularity, a series of scandals and budget stand-offs with the opposition. In other words, the “threat” seems more Yoon’s plummeting public support than any communist infiltration in the South. Militaries of course operate by their own logic. But absent a threat that military leaders find compelling — communism during the Cold War — they generally won’t join up with a President who is already flailing.
A short while ago, the military announced a suspension of parliamentary activity. So Yoon appears to have at least some military support. But man-on-the-street interviews from Seoul suggest the civilian population is less supportive or terrorized than bewildered by what the President thinks he’s doing. The head of the opposition has called on members of parliament to converge on the parliament to oppose the effort.
I’m not a Korea expert by any means. But this at least doesn’t have the look of the kind of effort that’s going to stick. But the backdrop of this effort has obvious international echoes and repercussions. During the Cold War, South Korea oscillated autocracy, liberal democracy and dictatorship. But it’s had a thriving and boisterous democracy since the late 1980s. It’s hard not to see this decision as part of the autocratic tide sweeping the world and perhaps Donald Trump’s return to power in the U.S. It’s difficult to imagine something like this being attempted 10 or 20 years ago. But now, who knows? How this plays out will be seen as signal for what’s possible and acceptable in the global order today.
