We’re really getting down to the wire on the midterms and in ways that aren’t necessarily inspiring if you’re a Democrat. The conventional wisdom now has it that after a summer of Dobbs backlash that buoyed Democrats, inflation and the economy have now reclaimed center stage putting Republicans back in the ascendent. Is this true? Is there evidence to support this?

There’s definitely some.

If Donald Trump runs again and wins in 2024, he’s reportedly already decided that the QAnon congresswoman who kicks teen activists and thinks that wildfires are started by secret space lasers will be part of his administration.

While it’s unclear whether he sees Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) as a good fit for a Cabinet position, department appointment or some type of White House role, Trump has reportedly told at least two people close to him that Greene would be “great” and he wants her “very close in a second term,” according to a new report from Rolling Stone. One of the sources told Rolling Stone that Trump specifically floated giving Greene a role in the Justice Department.

Russia’s military situation in Ukraine has become so dire in recent weeks that, as you know, there’s been increasing discussion of whether President Putin might resort to the use of nuclear weapons to stabilize it or overawe Ukraine’s western allies into discontinuing aid. We think, rightly, about how terrifying this prospect is. But we shouldn’t forget that it is also a gauge of just how bad Russia is doing in conventional terms. But Putin may get relief if he’s able to hold on until January when a Republican House would block any more military aid to Ukraine.

That is what Kevin McCarthy is now signaling.

It’s quite late in the game. But the White House at least is upping its Roe and Reform promise. If Democrats gain seats, Biden says, he’ll sign a bill restoring Roe. That’s good. But it’s not going to be enough. To really break through this late in the election cycle, it’s going to take pledges for congressional leaders, specific senators seen as conceivable hold outs on the filibuster and more. Specificity remains critical. Being specific makes the pledge credible, tangible. Saying “if more are elected” makes you wonder how many more. 10 more, 2 more. The point is to make it concrete enough that Georgia voters know it’s in their hand in the Warnock-Walker Senate race. That it’s in the hands of voters in Virginia’s 7th district in the Spanberger/Vega race. There’s time to make a difference but it needs to be a full court press and it needs to be specific — specific number of wins, a specific time frame in which Democrats will pass such a law.

We’ve already written a lot in recent months about the near certainty that a Republican House will threaten a national debt default next year to force Joe Biden to essentially undo the legislative agenda he passed in his first two years in office. I didn’t realize that they are apparently focused on major cuts to Social Security and Medicare, or as they are calling it “structural changes” to the two programs. I take this from this morning’s PunchBowl newsletter.

Punchbowl cites this BGov piece and apparently their own reporting. But I’m reminded that our Kate Riga was on this aspect of the story on Friday, indeed citing the same BGov piece.