We appear to have a very high casualty mass shooting unfolding in Lewiston, Maine. CNN reports that there are at least 16 fatalities and as many as 60 additional wounded. There appears to be a single gunman who opened fire at at least two three separate locations. The gunman is apparently still at large. And the entire city of Lewiston remains under a shelter in place order. There are lots of scattered reports, some of which seem contradictory or poorly sourced. But those seem to be the essential details as of this moment.

Late Update: NBC and Fox are now reporting at least 22 fatalities … the upshot of all the reports is that police in Lewiston were overwhelmed by the situation. They’ve had to call in state and federal manpower to assist with the manhunt. Police from other jurisdictions and states are moving in to assist. If you’re not from the northeast this is very far from anything that can be called a large city. So the time to get there is significant.

From TPM Reader ES …

I had a hard time articulating this for myself — but now it’s clearer: the political and strategic confusion for everyone stems from the fact that what Hamas did to Israelis is not “resistance” but something else. It’s not even so-called asymmetric warfare or terror bombings. It’s not something that past resistance or anticolonial or liberation movements used to do. It’s something completely outside of it. In fact it’s more the kind of atrocities that victorious States or armies perpetrate.

Moments from now Mike Johnson of Louisiana will become Speaker of the House and I just found out that Johnson and his wife have a podcast about ‘religious conservatism’, basically a heavy focus on abortion bans, opposing gay marriage and the like. Before entering Congress Johnson was a ‘religious liberty’ activist. It’s on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and the rest. You have to figure that opposition researchers are going to be listening to it pretty closely. The first episode I’m listening to is Episode 12 “The Truth about January 6th that You’ve Never Been Told”. After that there’s Episode 14 “Post-Roe America: What Happens Now?” Johnson supports an absolute national ban on abortions.

It certainly *seems* – and I stress *seems* – like Republicans have finally managed to thread the Speaker needle and will elect Mike Johnson of Louisiana in a couple hours. When the caucus did a roll call late yesterday evening a few voted present but none voted against him. But 20 or so weren’t there. Those who were put on a big show of unity in a late evening press conference and the consensus seems to be that it’s happening. There’s a bit of uncertainty created by that non-trivial number not showing up for that final key vote. But no members have made any announcements or moves overnight or this morning that suggest they’re going to oppose Johnson on the floor or take any steps to halt his momentum.

My best guess is it probably happens. But given the events of the last three weeks we can’t be certain until we see the actual vote.

How did they finally pull this off?

I mentioned in this week’s podcast that the current state of the House GOP Speaker debacle-ship reminds me of the day Denny Hastert became Speaker. Hard on the heels of a disappointing (Clinton-Lewinsky) scandal mid-term, in rapid succession one Speaker and one Speaker designate were blown out of the water by extra-marital affairs. In a rush to safety, as the financial journalists have it, Rep. Denny Hastert was elected Speaker essentially by affirmation. The one thing Republicans wanted more than anything was a return to calm and Hastert’s biography and demeanor offered it. Certainly someone as frumpy and avuncular as normie embodiment Hastert wouldn’t be off cheating on his wife or bringing the caucus into disrepute. So Hastert it was.

Obviously, it didn’t turn out quite as expected. But that’s how it looked at the time.

According to Israeli media reports, the Mossad and Shin Bet (Israel’s international and domestic intelligence agencies) have created a new unit with the Hebrew acronym Nili, to track down and kill all the Hamas fighters who participated in the October 7th incursion into southern Israel which left more than 1,400 Israelis dead, mostly civilians.

According to Israel the attack was carried out by the Nukhba (elite) Force, a naval commando unit of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassem Brigades, Hamas’s military wing.

Press reports suggest the attack was carried out by roughly 2,500 Nukhba fighters.

Let me try to briefly up date you on where Jim Jordan’s zombie Speakership seems to be. As you know, he lost a Speakership vote Tuesday with 20 Republicans in opposition and then lost another yesterday with 22 votes in opposition. In the second outing, a couple switched to supporting him but more flipped in the other direction. After that he remained committed to forcing a third vote even though there was a strong consensus that his losing ground in the second vote meant his bid was over.

A few assumptions and developments are operating behind the scenes.