Here is a graph that provides important perspective on the current outbreaks in the South and Southwest compared to the COVID outbreak in the New York City metropolitan region in March and April.

This graph shows daily fatality numbers in New York, Florida, Texas and Arizona on a per capita basis (fatalities per million residents) expressed as a seven day moving average. These are statewide numbers for New York. But it’s overwhelmingly the New York City metropolitan area. As you can see, that outbreak still totally dwarfs what is currently happening in any of the other three states. Arizona is substantially worse than Texas or Florida. But the state’s apparent peak is still only slightly more than a quarter of the daily death toll New York saw in early April.

There are plenty of explanations out there for President Trump’s minor shift in coronavirus posturing in recent weeks. The President is suddenly encouraging mask-wearing, cancelling the in-person convention and giving new COVID-19 briefings. Maybe fellow GOPers’ messaging on masks had an impact. Maybe he didn’t want another Tulsa repeat. Or maybe, as the virus creeps into his inner administration circle, he’s taking it more seriously.

But according to new reporting in the Washington Post, it’s the same as it ever was — all about his reelection.

One of the most pressing questions about the COVID epidemic is why some places are doing so much better than others. This applies both globally and within the United States. One example that gets raised a lot is why is New York State doing so relatively well while states in the South and Southwest are being hit so hard?

We need to start the conversation saying a) We don’t completely know and B) There are clearly multiple factors. But let me share some thoughts with you on one part of this debate.

While I still cringe that I see people in New York City not wearing masks, the truth is mask wearing is near universal in New York City. My sense is that aggressive mitigation efforts, both pressed by state authorities and embraced by the population, is the main reason why New York has at least to date avoided a second wave of infection. The last time New York’s case positivity rate went over 2% was June 2nd.

A new Politico report tells the story of how President Trump apparently made the move to cancel the in-person convention event in Jacksonville, Florida next month.

But I find that hard to believe.

The Jacksonville GOP convention flop is a microcosm of the administration’s failed COVID response. Months ago Democratic leaders saw the writing on the wall – the impossibility of holding a mass, packed indoor event during a pandemic – and essentially cancelled the 2020 convention in favor of an online affair. The President and many others at his lead portrayed this and messaged it as an example of the Democratic girlyman-ism which makes it so critical to keep Trump and Republicans in power.

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President Trump doesn’t have anything on his public schedule until 5 p.m. today.

And it’s painfully obvious.