Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 45 percent to 43 percent in North Carolina, according to a new poll of likely voters out Tuesday from Emerson College.
Libertarian Gary Johnson holds 8 percent of the vote, with the Green Party’s Jill Stein at 2 percent and another 2 percent undecided.
The survey was Emerson College’s first general election poll of North Carolina. Although the results are within the margin of error, Clinton leads Trump 54 percent to 33 percent when voters were asked which candidate they expect to win in November.
The poll found Trump does better with independent voters than Clinton, leading 45-34, with Johnson getting 14 percent of the independent vote. White voters favored Trump over Clinton 63-24, whereas African American voters favored Clinton 75-16 percent, Hispanic voters 59-15 and multiracial voters 94-6.
Clinton also has a narrow lead over Trump among women, 49-44, while men are more likely to support Trump 47-37, according to the survey.
The Emerson College poll was conducted Aug. 27-29 and surveyed 800 likely general election voters using an automated survey on landline phones. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percent.
TPM’s PollTracker Average in North Carolina shows Trump leading Clinton 43.9 percent to 43.1 percent.
People are stupid
True, but they’re not nearly as dumb as landline only, robocall polls in a state with large young and minority populations. It looks like all of the Emerson polls have leaned pretty heavily toward Republicans and have been out of line with other available polling.
I don’t get it. Didn’t Josh just yesterday have a long piece on how Emerson’s polling is landline only, and therefore is less likely to survey younger people? I’m not in a position to evaluate Josh’s analysis, but it seems reasonable to suspect that Emerson isn’t entirely accurate with its polling this year (538 rates them a B, not the worst, but not the best either).
If that’s the case, though, why the breathless OMG take in the article? Everyone has NC going blue this year.
Relax. The Emerson polls always skew right. Nothing to see here.
Landline only and his lead is just two? Hillary must be ahead by quite a bit.