Donald Trump leads among North Carolina voters by a single point, according to a new poll from Elon University.
The state has been closely watched as a swing state in the general election, and is currently a tossup on TPM’s Electoral Scoreboard.
Trump comes out ahead of Hillary Clinton, 44-43, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson following at 6 percent.
Elon University has not recently surveyed likely North Carolina voters on the election, but a Quinnipiac University poll released early this month showed Clinton ahead by four points, 47-43.
The Elon University poll was conducted via live telephone interviews from Sept. 12-16 among 644 likely North Carolina voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.86 percent.
TPM’s PollTracker Average in North Carolina shows a tossup, with Clinton leading Trump, 44.2 to 43.4.
Sorry Elon, but your poll is sophomoric.
The likely voter screen consists of only people who say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote and claim to know where their precinct is. (Early voters, of course, don’t need to know where their precinct is.)