In another sign the presidential race is tightening, Donald Trump now holds a lead among likely voters, in both a head-to-head match up with Hillary Clinton and in a four-way race with third party candidates, according to the new CNN/ORC national poll.
Trump leads Clinton by one point, 49-48, among likely voters in a head-to-head matchup. When third party candidates are added to the question Trump leads Clinton by two points, 45-43, among likely voters, with Johnson at 7 points and Stein at 2 points.
This was the first CNN/ORC poll of the general election to filter for likely voters. Clinton had consistently lead in the previous CNN/ORC polls of registered voters, except for a poll immediately following the Republican convention when Trump saw a bounce.
In the broader pool of registered voters, Clinton still leads, though more narrowly than before, according to the poll. In a head-to-head matchup among registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by two points, 48-46, down from her 52-43 lead over Trump in the CNN/ORC poll released in early August. When third party candidates are added to the question, Clinton leads Trump by three points, 44-41, among registered voters, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 points and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 points.
ORC International conducted the survey via phone Sept. 1-4. It surveyed 886 registered voters with a margin of error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and surveyed 786 likely voters with a margin or error plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Clarification: This post has been updated to highlight the survey results among likely voters.
TPM:
Outlier, people. Don’t panic. Not yet.
And yet it is maddening. For the horserace they want, the MSM is touting this poll wholesale this morning across the board. They’ve mentioned nothing about the new NBC poll (even MSNBC ignored it and spent half and hour discussing the CNN poll. It was, however, Moanin’ Joe…admittedly.), nothing about the electoral map, nothing about battleground states…etc.
Its their change from RVs to the LV screen. Typically, that switch is favorable to republicans, though there was some evidence that it wouldn’t be this year.
But, without knowing the details of how they made their screen, the poll is consistent with that switch in that it is also indicate a sizable enthusiasm gap among Dems. That is my biggest worry about this election cycle.
The other big concern I have here is there is a shift among favorable/unfavorable ratings…more people have a favorable rating of Trump, and more people have an unfavorable rating of Clinton.
That one just hurts my head, and I look squarely at the broader MSM for that one. No mention of the Bondi bribe story that twitter has been heating up over all weekend, and no mention of the fact that a trial against Trump for rape of a 13 year old starts in less than 2 weeks. This will be the third time he has been accused of rape/attempted rape in court and almost nobody is even aware of that.
Likewise, there as been zero coverage of him using foreign models illegally (largely under age as well), coaching them on how to lie to customs officials and federal immigration forms, while housing them in squalor and paying them next to nothing.
Bang him over the head with those three stories for a week or so…toss in bribing the AG (now governor) in TX too, and hiring illegal immigrants from Poland and then stiffing them for a little extra spice. Then lets see where his favorables are.
@sherlock1 Well ,duh!!! The NBC is the epitome of what they DON’T want. Not only is she ahead, but it literally shows no change. The very definition of “not news” is no change. Plus if you are going to screech about a non existent pivot for over a week…you want to see the “rewards” for your efforts. CNN/ORC poll shows that.
We have to consider the possibility that the Cinton campaign isn’t operating as effectively as it might. It seems to me that the priorities are:
(1) Find a way to stop Trump dominating the news stories, day in, day out.
(2) Find a way to communicate a pithy, positive narrative about HRC’s agenda.
As to (1), this can be achieved by getting Elizabeth Warren and Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders more actively involved in attacking Trump, and consistently using language people will understand. “Mentally unstable.” “Chicken.” “More loyal to Putin than to the American people.” “Scared of Putin.” Do not shrink from using these actual phrases, phrases that will generate debate. Refer to the fake doctor’s report, to the failure to release tax returns etc. Stick to the message.
As to (2), I have no idea. I don’t know. “Tough.” “Worker.” “Champion of justice.”
well that starts happening today. And could we all please remember the final outcome of 2012 Obama at 51 percent Romney 47.
The US today is just too polarized to see a much wider margin between Republican and Democrat.