Democratic Senate Challenger Ahead 45-41 In Pennsylvania Poll

Katie McGinty addresses a reporter's question after casting her vote Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Wayne, Pa. Former Congressman Joe Sestak looks to hold off McGinty, the party-endorsed candidate, and win the Democrati... Katie McGinty addresses a reporter's question after casting her vote Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Wayne, Pa. Former Congressman Joe Sestak looks to hold off McGinty, the party-endorsed candidate, and win the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, setting up a rematch with the Republican incumbent Pat Toomey. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Larma) MORE LESS
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In the back-and-forth U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, Democratic challenger Katie McGinty has taken a four-point lead on Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) in a new Monmouth poll.

This latest poll pushes the closely followed race into a tossup on TPM’s Senate Scoreboard.

McGinty, a former member of the Bill Clinton administration, leads Toomey, 45-41, with Libertarian candidate Edward Clifford polling at 6 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters.

Emerson College released a poll of the same race yesterday, showing Toomey leading by seven points. Monmouth has not previously polled the 2016 Senate race in the swing state.

The race has been closely followed because it is considered crucial for Democrats to win in order to gain control of the Senate.

The poll was conducted Aug. 26-29 among 402 likely Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

TPM’s PollTracker Average shows a tossup, with Toomey leading McGinty, 43.2 to 41.9.

Latest Polltracker

Notable Replies

  1. Do you people who write this drivel and then post a cryptic note on Twitter actually get paid?

    Yesterday, you folks were championing another non-random, (only landline and automated) poll that had the exact opposite result.

    Make up your freaking minds or try discussing this issues and not making this a farce of a horse-race. Or are you folks not capable of dealing with actual issues.

    UNSUBSCRIBING!

  2. I just don’t understand the problem. The headline is correct. Democratic Senate Challenger ahead 45-41 in Pennsylvania Poll. I’m glad TPM shares some polling results, but it’s not inaccurate or horserace reporting to report on the results of polling. What am I missing?

  3. I don’t know about @commenterperson, but for me, the problem is three fold:

    1. These are individual polls with differing methodologies.
    2. As Norman Ornstein has pointed out, for “college pollsters” like Emerson, Monmouth or Quinnipiac, accuracy is perhaps not as important as notoriety.
    Norman Ornstein
    ‏@NormOrnstein
    What many poll-watchers know: Quinnipiac polls are about publicity, not accuracy:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/how-did-marist-monmouth-suffolk-and-quinnipiac-get-known-for-political-polling/2016/08/02/15429962-532b-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html
    
    1. Unlike Sam Wang, most poll trackers aggregate their polls using the average, instead of the median. So, a gross outlier can move the average by an unduly amount by itself. Like taking the average income of a room full of people, one of whom is a millionaire, and the rest are white and blue collar workers. The median is a much more informative measure of central tendency in these cases, which is why Sam Wang employs the poll results medians.

    In short, what the TPM polls lack in context and utility, they more than make up for in providing amusement.

  4. While the points you make are absolutely true, I still don’t see the harm in posting the results of individual polls particularly when it’s stated that it’s a single poll showing these results. Plus, TPM always makes a point of noting what TPM Polltracker aggregate. And I tend to think TPM readers tend to be so much more informed than the average voter. But I guess the horserace stuff used to bother me a lot more too. This year I’m just so damn grateful the media may be inadvertently keeping potential Democratic voters from lulling themselves into a false sense of security in which it’s OK to vote for a third party candidate or not vote at all.

  5. I don’t see the harm either. But it still won’t stop me from enjoying the taste of a full-on needling. Like the guy who got seen leaving the hoochy-coochy show by his minister: “Reverend, I was ashamed to be there, but not enough to leave.”

Continue the discussion at forums.talkingpointsmemo.com

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