Clinton Mostly Ahead In New Batch Of Swing State Polls

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at a rally at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Circuit Center, in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, June 14, 2016. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)
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Hillary Clinton holds the lead in three out of the four swing states in a new batch of polls taken after the first presidential debate.

Clinton led in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania polls from Quinnipiac University, as well as a North Carolina poll from Bloomberg Politics. Donald Trump held the lead in Quinnipiac’s poll of Ohio voters.

Clinton’s greatest advantage comes in Florida and Pennsylvania from Quinnpiac, where she leads by five points in both state polls.

In Florida, Clinton is ahead in a head-to-head matchup with Donald Trump, 49-44, and she polls ahead, 48-43, in Pennsylvania.

When third party candidates are included, Clinton still leads by five points, 46-41, in Florida, with Libertarian Gary Johnson polling at 5 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2 percent.

This latest poll shows a gain in Florida for the former Secretary of State since last month’s Quinnipiac poll, where she was tied with Trump in both the head-to-head and four-way presidential polls.

Her lead shrinks slightly in the four-way match in Pennsylvania, to four points, 45-41, with Johnson at 5 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

Clinton also holds a slight lead in North Carolina, according to polls from both Quinnipiac and Bloomberg Politics.

Quinnipiac shows her ahead among likely North Carolina voters by three points, 49-46, while Bloomberg puts her ahead by just one point, 46-45.

In a four-way match, Clinton leads 46-43 in the Quinnipiac poll, with Johnson following at 7 percent. According to Bloomberg’s results, she leads in North Carolina by one point, 44-43, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 2 percent.

The two new polls show Clinton maintained leads she held in an early September Quinnipiac swing state polls, in North Carolina (47-43) and Pennsylvania (48-43).

Trump still leads Ohio, 49-46, in a head-to-head match in the Quinnipiac poll. With third party candidates included, 47-42, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 1 percent.

The businessman’s lead has increased slightly since Quinnipiac’s early September poll of Ohio, where he led by one point in a head-to-head match and by four-points with third-party candidates included.

The Quinnipiac swing state poll was conducted via live telephone interview from Sept. 27-Oct. 2. The survey included 545 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent; 507 likely North Carolina voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent; 497 likely Ohio voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent; and 535 likely Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

The Bloomberg Politics poll was conducted via live interview by Selzer & Company between Sept. 29-Oct. 2 among 805 likely North Carolina voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

TPM’s PollTracker Average in Florida shows Clinton leading Trump, 48.1 to 43.7.

TPM’s PollTracker Average in North Carolina shows a tossup, with Clinton leading Trump, 46.2 to 44.2.

TPM’s PollTracker Average in Ohio shows a tossup, with Trump leading Clinton, 45.7 to 44.3.

TPM’s PollTracker Average in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Trump, 47.9 to 44.

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  1. Avatar for mjv135 mjv135 says:

    I live in central/southern Ohio, it feels like we’re slowly being annexed by West Virginia. Every summer there’s more confederate flags, the accents get thicker, and the skin gets thinner.

  2. Avatar for magari magari says:

    Very relieved to see this, especially for Pennsylvania. I live in the Harrisburg area, but stayed in upper Dauphin County two weeks ago. I saw Trump signs in yards, which is to be expected in that area. I happened to meet a woman in a coffee shop who is working for the Dauphin County Committee for Hillary. She was doing voter registration at a large fair in the upper county and was appalled that the Democratic Committee was selling Hillary yard signs for $5.00 apiece. Huh??? At the same fair, the Trump people were set up at the entrance, giving away yuuuge Trump signs. If I went by what I saw, I’d believe that PA was going big for Trump. Nowhere have I seen yard signs for Hillary. I’ll be in Massachusetts next week and should see visible support for Hill. Thank goodness for TPM and the commenters here, as well as other sites I read all the time.

  3. Avatar for bd2999 bd2999 says:

    Actually, Southern Ohio, particularly the South Eastern portion, has almost always been that way. There are patches elsewhere. I have not seen has many flags, at least not consistently.

    Really, if you see any map of the state with how they vote there are only a few points of blue, population centers, and the rest is red. Just the way it is really. I usually thought they were reasonable conservatives for the most part, but that seems to not be the case this year.

  4. Don’t count on Ohio going for Trump. Hillary’s support in Cleveland, Toledo. Cincinnati, and other large urban areas (and their suburbs) is solid, and without Ken Blackwell moving voting machines out of these areas, Trump’s support in rural Ohio will not be enough.

  5. can’ say i understand whats with Ohio any input from anyone?

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