In State Legislatures Nationwide, Republicans Are Consolidating Power

Congress gets most of the national attention in the redistricting wars, but state legislatures are key battlegrounds that deserve some scrutiny.

For one thing, there are thousands of state legislative districts — all the more opportunity for a sneaky gerrymander to slip by unnoticed. 

Also, state legislatures, as we’ve seen over the past year, hold immense power in the democratic process — including setting election rules and responding (or not) to the COVID pandemic. 

Here are five of the most dramatic examples of state-level gerrymandering we’ve seen this year.

Texas

Texas Republicans’ redistricting maps, which were signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott (R) in October, have attracted their share of lawsuits, including the Justice Department’s only redistricting lawsuit so far this year. 

The DOJ sued over the congressional and state House maps, alleging that the legislature had “eliminated Latino electoral opportunities in the State House plan through manipulation or outright elimination of districts where Latino communities previously had elected their preferred candidates.” 

The suit highlights House District 118, which had a solid Latino majority leading into the redistricting process. The Texas House adopted an amendment to alter the district over the objections of the majority of the Bexar County delegation, the suit noted, and the change allegedly resulted in a 10 percent decrease to the Latino citizen voting-age population in the district. 

The maps protect GOP incumbents in the state and their legislative majorities. And despite people of color making up 95% of Texas’ population growth over the past decade, there are no new Latino-majority districts in the new state House and Senate maps, nor new Black-majority districts. The House map actually decreases the number of districts with Black or Latino majorities. 

North Carolina

Amid the multiple lawsuits over North Carolina Republicans’ state legislative and congressional maps, the state’s Supreme Court postponed primary elections, citing “the great public interest in the subject matter.”

It’s not hard to see why people are interested: The maps passed by the state legislature would give Republicans 24 safe Senate seats, as opposed to 17 safe seats for Democrats, the News Observer reported. In the House, the balance of safe seats is 55-41 in Republicans’ favor. 

The Princeton Gerrymandering Project, a nonpartisan group that scores redistricting proposals, gave the state House and Senate maps “F” grades overall, as well as Fs for partisan fairness. 

Ohio

Donald Trump won Ohio’s presidential electors with 53% of the state’s vote to Joe Biden’s 45% in 2020, up a few points from his 51-43% win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Before that, Barack Obama won the state in back to back presidential contests. 

And yet, the maps approved by Ohio’s redistricting commission, on a party line vote, would effectively give Ohio Republicans 64.4% of the legislature, the Columbus Dispatch reported — a 62-37 House margin and a 23-10 Senate margin. This despite Ohio voters passing two initiatives over the past decade to rein in partisan gerrymandering. 

Presidential margins are a rough metric, but what Republicans on the Ohio redistricting commission used is perhaps more bizarre: Republican candidates won 13 out of the 16 last statewide elections, or 81%, they said, and the vote proportion in those elections went for Republicans 55-45. 

“Thus, the statewide proportion of voters favoring statewide Republican candidates is between 55% and 81%,” the commission said in a statement. In the words of the Columbus Dispatch’s editorial board: “Huh?” By this logic, New York, which always elects Democrats to state-wide office, would be justified in drawing a map with 100% Democratic districts, noted an analysis on Democracy Docket, the website from Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias.

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), a member of the redistricting commission, voted for the maps even though he later acknowledged, “What I am sure in my heart is that this committee could have come up with a bill that was much more clearly constitutional. I’m sorry that we did not do that.” 

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is a perfect example of how redistricting wins in years past can build on themselves: In 2011, Republicans controlled the state’s legislature and governorship, and they passed a redistricting map heavily slanted in their own favor. This year, with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in office, things weren’t going to be so simple. 

Typically, the partisan split would result in courts drawing the districts, Wisconsin Public Radio noted. But this time, the right-wing Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty sued, calling for the court to pursue a “least changes” map — that is, incorporating the fewest number of changes to the previous, Republican dominated map. The state’s Supreme Court not only agreed with them, it said the new map wouldn’t necessarily have to change on account of being disproportionately Republican. 

The state doesn’t have its final map yet: Watch this space. But things are not looking good. Evers has submitted his own proposed “least changes” map to the court, but it’s improving on a heavily gerrymandered state, and as such, can only go so far. 

Georgia

Republicans control both the legislature and governor’s mansion in Georgia, and the party will reap the rewards.

The effect will be especially clear in certain districts: Joe Biden won 59% of State Sen. Michelle Au’s district in 2020, for example, but the map set to be signed by Gov. Brain Kemp would make the area a 52% Trump win.

There are also issues of racial representation that open the state up to lawsuits — which are expected en masse. House Speaker David Ralston (R) acknowledged earlier this month that “abusive use of the political process” was just part of redistricting, and pointed to Democratic perpetrators like Illinois and New York to make the case that both sides do it.

“You never hear those talked about — the blatant abusive use of the political process — but it’s a part of the process, and I don’t know how you take it out,” Ralston said. “I think the maps, notwithstanding the rhetoric, are fair. They very carefully followed the law. They follow the Voting Rights Act. Now we’ll see what happens.”

Merry Christmas, Everyone

Merry Christmas, everyone. (If you don’t celebrate, just let it roll over you.) I want to thank everyone who is a reader of this site and especially our over 33,000 members. You make all this possible and we really cannot thank you enough. I hope everyone has a wonderful day with their families, whether that’s an extended clan or just a special person in your life, and a day full of warmth and free of care.

Gutfeld!: A Monument To Lazy Conservative Comedy

Gutfeld! is Fox News’ weekday late night show hosted by Greg Gutfeld that promises to “look at the news of the day through a satiric lens fused with pop culture” and “feature refreshing, light-hearted takes on the day’s top headlines” from various guests. The show debuted in April, and it’s been an undeniable success since then, rising above almost all other late night comedy programs in the ratings, according to Nielsen. It was also among the ten top rated cable news shows in November (all the other programs with higher ratings were also Fox shows, reinforcing the right-wing outlet’s status as the country’s most-watched TV network).

Continue reading “Gutfeld!: A Monument To Lazy Conservative Comedy”

2021’s Climate Disasters Revealed An East-West Divide

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It first appeared at The Conversation.

Alongside a lingering global pandemic, the year 2021 was filled with climate disasters, some so intense they surprised even the scientists who study them.

Extreme rainstorms turned to raging flash floods that swept through mountain towns in Europe, killing over 200 people. Across Asia, excessive rainfall inundated wide areas and flooded subway stations in China. Heat waves shattered records in the Pacific Northwest, Europe and the Arctic. Wildfires swept through communities in California, Canada, Greece and Australia. And those were only a few of the extremes.

In the U.S. alone, damage from the biggest climate and weather disasters is expected to total well over US$100 billion in 2021.

Many of these extreme weather events have been linked to human-caused climate change, and they offer a glimpse of what to expect in a rapidly warming world.

In the U.S., something in particular stood out: a sharp national precipitation divide, with one side of the country too wet, the other too dry.

As a climate scientist, I study the impact of global warming on precipitation and the water cycle. Here’s what happened with precipitation in the U.S. in 2021 and why we’re likely to see similar scenarios in the future.

The east-west weather divide

The eastern U.S. weathered storm after storm in 2021. Record rainfall in Tennessee triggered deadly flash flooding in August. The remnants of Hurricane Ida merged with another front days after the hurricane hit Louisiana and became so intense they set rainfall records and flooded subway stations and basement apartments in New York and Pennsylvania, with devastating consequences. Severe storms hit several states with deadly tornadoes in December.

Almost the entire West, meanwhile, was in some stage of drought, helping to fuel wildfires that swept through forests and towns.

This kind of east-west weather divide can be enhanced by La Niña, a periodical phenomenon fueled by Pacific Ocean temperatures that tends to leave the Southwest drier than normal and the North and much of the eastern half of the U.S. wetter.

But something else is going on: Global warming fuels both dryness and extreme rainfall.

Several cars and a large pickup truck are piled up against a bridge after being swept downstream by a flood.
Flash flooding swept away cars and damaged homes in Tennessee in August 2021. AP Photo/John Amis

3 impacts of global warming on rainfall

Three things in particular happen to precipitation when the planet warms.

1) Global warming leads to more overall precipitation.

Higher temperature increases evaporation from Earth’s surface. It also increases the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture at a rate of about 7% per degree Celsius that the planet warms. With more moisture evaporating, global precipitation is expected to increase, but this increase is not uniform.

2) Global warming leads to more intense precipitation.

With higher temperature, more moisture is needed to reach the condensation level to form precipitation. As a result, light precipitation will be less common. But with more moisture in the atmosphere, when storm systems do develop, the increased humidity leads to heavier rainfall events.

In addition, storm systems are fueled by latent heat – the energy released into the atmosphere when water vapor condenses to liquid water. Increased moisture in the atmosphere also enhances latent heat in storm systems, increasing their intensity.

Research shows that both the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events has increased since the 1950s over most land areas.

People walk down stairs into a flooded subway station.
The remnants of Hurricane Ida flooded subway stations in New York City in September 2021. David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

3) Global warming tends to make wet places wetter and dry places drier.

Precipitation is not distributed evenly over the planet because of the global atmosphere circulation pattern. This global circulation brings moisture to places where winds come together, such as the tropical regions where we find most of the world’s rainforests, and away from places where winds diverge, such as the midlatitudes where most world’s deserts are located.

Assuming no significant changes in global wind patterns, increases in evaporation and moisture will mean more moisture is transported from dry areas to wet areas and into the storm tracks at higher latitudes. Global warming could also potentially change the global circulation pattern, causing a shift in the world’s wet and dry regions.

Rows of dead trees lie on their sides in a flat field.
A California farmer pulled out almond groves in June 2021 because of a lack of water to irrigate them. Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

Mountains, moisture and the east-west divide

These dynamics are also affected by local conditions, such as the shape of the land, the types of plants on it and the presence of major water bodies.

The western U.S., with the exception of the West Coast, is dry in part because it lies in the rain shadow of mountains. The westerly wind from the Pacific Ocean is forced upward by the mountain ranges in the West. As it moves up, the air cools and precipitation forms on the windward side of the mountains. By the time the wind reaches the leeward side of the mountains, the moisture has already rained out. As the wind descends the mountains, the air warms up, further reducing the relative humidity.

Higher temperature in areas like these where the moisture supply is already limited means less humidity in the air, leading to less rain. Higher temperature and less precipitation would also reduce snow packs in the mountains and cause earlier melt in spring. All these changes are likely to increase aridity in the West.

People looking from a viewing platform at Lake Mead, where a white ring on the stone walls shows how far water has dropped below normal.
The ‘bathtub ring’ around Lake Mead in July 2021 reflected record low water levels in the Colorado River reservoir, which fell below 35% capacity and triggered water use restrictions. Photo by David McNew/Getty Images

The eastern U.S., on the other hand, receives abundant moisture from the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico carried by the easterly trade wind. With abundant moisture supply, increasing temperature means more moisture in the atmosphere, leading to more precipitation and stronger storms.

This is what years of precipitation records show and what is projected for future precipitation based on climate models. Both show a decrease in annual precipitation in the West, likely meaning more long periods of drought, and an increase in the East with global warming.

Shuang-Ye Wu is a professor of geology and environmental geosciences at the University of Dayton.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Conversation

A Look Back At Some Of The Most Birdbrained Alleged Insurrectionists We’ve Met This Year

Jan. 6 saw a horrifying attack on the Capitol that exposed huge cracks in the country’s democratic project, and ex-President Donald Trump and his top enablers — many of whom are still in Congress — have made it clear that the assault only swelled their thirst to maintain power at any cost. Several of Trump’s toadies helped the former president fuel and foment the insurrection using their top positions in government.

But let us also not forget the more ridiculous Jan. 6 characters, e.g. the QAnon Shaman, who have utterly beclowned themselves during and in the aftermath of the attack — like Wile E. Coyote running directly into a wall with a fake tunnel painted on it.

Continue reading “A Look Back At Some Of The Most Birdbrained Alleged Insurrectionists We’ve Met This Year”

Where Things Stand: Looking Back On The Dumb

We’re ending the year in a befuddling place. The past week I’ve been having déjà vu, rocketing myself back to a simpler, but overall more confusing time — once again rounding out each evening with stupid little Victorian-era strolls around the neighborhood as my one activity for the day, all to maintain my stupid sanity.

The last few weeks have not been promising for the sweetly naive among us who were still holding on to hope for a brighter 2022. And the year as a whole has been a hard one. Kicking off the year with a literal insurrection didn’t do much to forecast optimism. Some of you, understandably, had to step away from the news at points throughout the year. And we don’t blame you! Between the Capitol attack and another impeachment and the GOP embrace of anti-vaxxers and extremists continuing their gradual takeover of Congress and the lingering Big Lie and this deadly COVID spike — it’s all been a lot. (Though, we did have a few bright spots this week!)

But our gallows humor got us through. And if we can’t, at least, release a few dark cackles into the void while the world burns, then we’ve lost our humanity.

Continue reading “Where Things Stand: Looking Back On The Dumb”

COVID Notes #7

You’ve likely seen a lot of reports in recent days about the disease severity of the Omicron wave. From some you hear increasing evidence that the Omicron wave is less severe, maybe much less severe, than previous COVID waves. Others claim there’s no solid evidence Omicron causes less severe disease. Who’s right? Some of the disconnect is differing degrees of caution. We’ve only known about Omicron for about six weeks. How much evidence do you need before you’re willing to say something is more mild, less lethal when probably hundreds of millions of people are about to get it and they need guidance about risk? But most of it is not that. Not anymore. Most of the seemingly contradictory claims are about different kinds of evidence and really different questions being asked.

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Jim Jordan Has Some ‘Real Concerns’ About Jan. 6 Committee’s Interest In Him

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) on Wednesday predictably tensed up when asked about the Jan. 6 committee’s request for information related to the deadly Capitol insurrection.

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Crisis of Command

I want to expand on what I mentioned in Morning Memo about some really good work from the Just Security guys on better understanding the delay in the deployment of the National Guard.

From the get-go, TPM’s coverage has been more circumspect about the decision to involve the military in the response to the attack.

Why?

Continue reading “Crisis of Command”