What Is Russia Thinking #2

Posted on by Josh Marshall

From TPM Reader PC …

The remarkable thing about the change in Russian messaging about their objectives is the threat it poses to Putin’s regime survival.

Even before the military changed their public tune, on March 16 Lavrov described ceasefire negotiations as being “close to agreement” on terms that were basically: give up Donbass and Crimea (no clarity on borders, or the potential land bridge between them) and give up NATO membership (no clarity on EU membership, just “neutrality”).

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Trying to Make Sense of the Russian (Maybe) Pivot

Posted on by Josh Marshall

From what I can tell, the more serious-minded military analysts and Ukraine experts are this afternoon trying to make sense of just what this afternoon’s Russian military briefing means. Is this just chatter along the lines of claims of a soon to be announced ceasefire or is this really the signal that the Russian leadership is looking for an offramp from this strategic catastrophe entirely of its own making? I don’t think anyone quite knows what to make of it yet. The claims of ‘this is what we meant to do all along’ are absurd on their face. And yet, they’re the most plausible and possibly even the most predictable path to a face-saving exit. In fact, we shouldn’t have to wait long to find out. If this signals a true pivot in Russian policy and war aims we should see movements on the ground in fairly short order.

But one really has to question whether this pivot is even possible. And by possible I mean is it in any way a plausible path to the end of the conflict on any terms?

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What Is Russia Thinking?

Posted on by Josh Marshall

TPM Reader PT tries to puzzle out what the people in charge of the Russian military are thinking …

After reading your posts on the latest proclamations from Russia’s General Staff, I find myself scratching my head (figuratively) and muttering, “I don’t get it” (also figuratively).

Specifically, I don’t see how these comments set the conditions for an end to the war on terms other than an abject Russian retreat.

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Ohio Republicans Are Gaming The System To Push Through Gerrymandered Districts

Posted on by Matt Shuham

A bipartisan majority on the Ohio Supreme Court has rejected Republican-drawn maps for U.S. congressional districts and state legislative districts a combined four times this year, handing Republicans rejection after rejection on the grounds that their proposed maps are illegally slanted in their own favor. 

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Republicans Are Now Gunning For Marriage Equality — And They’re Flaunting It

Posted on by Kate Riga

An upcoming Supreme Court decision cast a shadow across the hearing room where Supreme Court nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson sat for three days, fielding questions about her qualifications for the job: Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. 

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Wyden: Thomas Must Recuse

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Sen. Ron Wyden says that Clarence Thomas’ conduct on the court “looks increasingly corrupt” and that at a minimum he should recuse himself from any cases tied to the January 6th conspiracy or the 2024 election if ex-President Trump chooses to run again for election. I was gratified to see this because I had suggested the same and it seems really the minimum that should be required of him. (He’s already sat in review of other January 6th cases and ruled adverse to the investigation.)

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Putin Laments ‘Cancellation’ Of Russian Federation With J.K. Rowling Comparison

Posted on by Josh Kovensky

Russian President Vladimir Putin indulged in a bit of American culture war fantasia on Friday, accusing the West once again of trying to “cancel” Russia while comparing his state’s plight to that of J.K. Rowling.

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Russian Generals: Yeah, We Meant to Do That

Posted on by Josh Marshall

We have a bit more detail now on that Russian General Staff update in which they seem to argue that most of their military operation in Ukraine is now done and they’re going to focus just on “liberating” Donbas, the region in the east of the country, part of which had been under de facto Russian occupation back to 2014. Christopher Miller of Buzzfeed gives us a bit more of the nuance and detail.

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