Yet More on Tanker Shipping!

Here’s another post following up on the earlier one about free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the pinched off little turn in the Persian Gulf where the waterway is at its narrowest. On Bluesky, in response to my earlier post, one user pointed me to this video, a daily ~30 minute update on a YouTube channel called What’s Going on With Shipping.

I want to start by stating clearly the basis upon which I’m sharing this video. I’d never heard of the channel before a couple hours ago. It’s run by a guy named Sal Mercogliano who says he’s a former merchant mariner and historian who teaches maritime history and also consults on the topic. In other words, he appears to be a merchant shipping and tanker professional/nerd. And he runs this shipping news channel. I can’t independently vouch for his credibility. However, I watched today’s episode and a number of factors — subscriber count, reliance on credentialed news articles and industry data sources, tone, meticulousness and more — make me think that it’s at least legit enough to get a beginning overview of the situation in the Gulf. I found it fascinating. It reminds me — sadly — of reporting on the supply chain breakdowns at the beginning of the COVID pandemic. You suddenly had to come up to speed on the complex but to most of us little-understood world of global supply chains, the underbelly and machinery of how the modern interconnected world actually runs.

Continue reading “Yet More on Tanker Shipping!”

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Double Stunning Election News Out of Montana

Out of the blue we learn tonight that U.S. Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) isn’t running for reelection. Montana is one of those states that is certainly a tough challenge for Democrats. But it’s not impossible. So this adds to Republican challenges in holding the Senate. But we also seem to have a replay of what Dem Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia caught grief for last year. Garcia waited for the very last moment under the filing deadline to announce his retirement, leaving only enough time for his hand-picked successor, Garcia’s Chief of Staff Patty Garcia (no relation), to file her candidacy papers for the election. Since Garcia’s is a solid Democratic district, allowing Patty Garcia to run in the primary unopposed means that she is basically guaranteed to be elected. Daines appears to have done the exact same thing with a heads up to current Montana U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme.

Continue reading “Double Stunning Election News Out of Montana”

Risk, Oil Tankers and a Scrambling White House

Here’s a very interesting detail about risk, economics and military power that is kind of under the headlines in the expanding U.S.-Iran War. Iran is in a very, very bad position. Its military and deterrent power have already been badly damaged over the last three years. And it’s facing the top regional military power (Israel) and the top global military power (the U.S.) at the same time. It’s best bet to bring the war to a stop is to create huge international pain, and the best way to engineer that is to throttle oil deliveries from the Middle East, specifically by threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Continue reading “Risk, Oil Tankers and a Scrambling White House”

Trump’s Revealing New Take On Texas

During Stephen Colbert’s interview with state Rep. James Talarico (D) — which was released on YouTube after CBS, according to Colbert, would not allow The Late Show to air it live over concerns the Trump administration’s Federal Communication Commission might come after the show — Talarico made it clear why he thought the Trump administration was targeting him and his campaign.

Continue reading “Trump’s Revealing New Take On Texas”

Let’s Face Facts: This Isn’t Going Well (Iran War Edition)

It’s the perhaps tired refrain of foreign policy and defense professionals that wars are easy to start (if you’re still, mostly, the preeminent global military power) but much harder to finish. They are unpredictable. They quickly spread in directions you don’t anticipate. As the still preeminent global military power, you tend to be on the line for other sorts of instability that your war of choice creates. And yet Donald Trump has mainly been able to engage in what we might call impulsive unilateralism without generating too many problems for himself in the short run. He decapitated the Venezuelan regime through what amounted to a dramatic raid and is now, improbably, running the country as a kind of American presidential subsidiary through the mechanisms of the Chavista regime itself. He assassinated Qasem Soleimani in 2020. He launched a massive but brief bombing raid against Iranian nuclear facilities last year. In each case the U.S. was mostly able to end things quickly and on its own terms.

Continue reading “Let’s Face Facts: This Isn’t Going Well (Iran War Edition)”

Pseudoscientific Push to Frame Abortion as a ‘Water Quality’ Issue Rears Its Head in Iowa

About an hour into the Republican gubernatorial debate in Iowa earlier this year, Adam Steen, who is one of the leading candidates in the primary, made an eye-popping claim. 

“We need to decimate the chemical abortions,” Steen said. “You talk about water quality, what’s happening in our water because of that, those chemical abortions that are coming through there.”

The comment received relatively little notice apart from a few mentions on social media. However, Steen’s claim was notable both as an indication of how far to the right the GOP gubernatorial hopefuls are running in a state that already bans most abortions after six weeks and because it is part of a national push from anti-abortion groups to make speculative and far fetched environmental concerns a core part of their messaging. The effort to frame abortion medication as a threat to the water supply is one such claim, and lacks any concrete scientific basis. 

Steen, the state’s former director of the Department of Administrative Services, is one of the leading candidates in a crowded Republican primary field after winning a series of grassroots straw polls. His comments about “chemical abortions” and “water quality” came during a Jan. 27 debate hosted by the right-wing group Moms For Liberty. The candidates were responding to the question, “when does life begin?” 

After declaring “life begins at conception” and calling that point “the most important issue of this entire gubernatorial race,” Steen launched into his remarks connecting water safety, which is an especially pertinent issue in Iowa, with the right-wing cause of limiting access to abortion. 

TPM reached out to Steen’s campaign this week to ask what he was referring to when he claimed “chemical abortions” were a “water quality” issue. A spokesperson said Steen was “referencing” a white paper titled “Abortion In Our Water” that was produced by the group Liberty Counsel Action last year. The report claims “our waterways are being contaminated by chemical abortion drugs and human remains as American women — left alone at home to endure the agonizing process of expelling their pregnancy — are often instructed by abortion providers to dispose of their aborted child’s remains down the toilet.”

Liberty Counsel Action shares some leadership with Liberty Counsel, which has been labeled a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. The group is a legal organization closely affiliated with the evangelical Liberty University. Liberty Counsel is heavily focused on advocating for anti-LGBTQ and anti-abortion policies. 

“Abortion In Our Water” is part of a wave of claims and documentation that has been prepared by right-wing groups making an environmental case for restricting abortion rights. Anti-abortion activists have described the approach as “the next innovation” as they move toward targeting the abortion medication mifepristone, seeking to further restrict abortion following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision dismantling Roe vs. Wade. This strategy has been supported by Republican state legislators and U.S. senators who have pressed the federal Environmental Protection Agency to take action on their concerns

Mifepristone, which is often referred to as the “abortion pill,” is used to terminate pregnancies within the first nine weeks. It can also be used to help women who have had miscarriages pass pregnancy tissue. 

While the “Abortion In Our Water” report is focused on mifepristone and human remains from pregnancies, it consistently cited general research and concerns about sewer blockages and all manner of pharmaceuticals in the water supply. It does not muster convincing evidence that this particular drug or terminated pregnancies pose a unique risk. And water quality experts do not subscribe to anti-abortion activists’ argument that mifepristone poses a special environmental threat. 

Water quality is a serious issue in Iowa, said Prof. David Cwiertny, an engineer and wastewater expert who is the director of the University of Iowa’s Center for Health Effects of Environmental Contamination. However, unlike Steen, he did not attribute the problem to abortion. 

“Our biggest issue is nitrate levels — which is a regulated contaminant — are high, and many communities are having to seek out other sources that are not contaminated by nitrate,” Cwiertny explained.

Iowa is a center for farming and meat processing. Agricultural runoff contains nitrates from manure and fertilizer. Nitrates have been linked to high rates of cancer in the state

While Cwiertny said the water quality discussion should be broadened to encompass other chemicals like pesticides and fungicides as well as some widely used medicines, he does not see mifepristone as a high priority area of concern. 

“There probably needs to be a larger discussion, but I would put mifepristone pretty far down that list. I would think about some of the other things we use in industry and agriculture,” he said, later adding, “If you’re going to make this case about this chemical, then you should be making it about a bunch of other chemicals that are probably more problematic due to their widespread use.” 

The push from right-wing groups and Republican politicians to cast mifepristone as an environmental issue has provoked some action from the administration of President Donald Trump. However, the main step so far has consisted of the EPA saying it will try to identify methods that could find the drug in the water supply. That step is illustrative of the fact the supposed research from Liberty Counsel and other right-wing groups has not involved actually measuring the specific drug’s prevalence in the water supply, much less establishing it as especially dangerous. 

Cwiertny noted that mifepristone is only used by “a subset of the population that’s a subset of the population.” As such, he questioned whether it would even be identifiable in water systems. 

“I can see why this one gets attention because it’s got a very particular politically controversial use and it does have potent bioactivity. But I imagine, if you stack its use up compared to some of the other chemicals that we use for any other number of therapeutic applications or in animal agriculture, it may not reach the level of use that makes it likely to easily find it in the environment,” Cwiertny said.

Similarly, Cwiertny suggested Liberty Counsel’s concerns about human remains from terminated pregnancies in the water supply were overblown.

“In that report, they talk about 30 to 40 tons of hazardous medical waste — including human remains — being flushed into the water systems. 30 to 40 tons. I don’t know if that’s on an annual basis, I’m assuming it is, because they’re talking about the number of chemical abortions per year,” said Cwiertny. “For perspective, publicly owned treatment works generate over 13.8 million tons of dry weight sludge. So it’s a matter of scale. If we’re producing, you know, 14 million tons of solids from human waste after it’s been dewatered, focusing on 30 to 40 is — that’s, like, not even a drop in the bucket.”

In general, while Cwiertny said experts should be addressing issues of more widely used chemicals in the water supply, he also noted that modern treatment systems are robust. They can accommodate medicines and human waste from medical procedures. 

“We put human waste down sewers. That is just what they’re there for, and they are designed to handle relatively large masses of human waste flushed down toilets daily,” Cwiertny said. “The system is designed that way. And we do have advanced treatment these days, and more and more water systems are turning to them to produce water coming out of wastewater that is as pure as you can find.”

The questionable efforts to use water quality to target reproductive health medicines are just one element of the strident anti-abortion politics that have been displayed by the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Iowa. This year’s election opened up last year after the state’s current governor, Kim Reynolds, announced she would not seek another term. Under Reynolds, the state adopted a six-week abortion ban, which is among the most restrictive anti-abortion laws in the country. Many of the Republicans running to replace her want to go even further. 

Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA), who, prior to Steen’s recent grassroots surge, was widely seen as the frontrunner in the race, did not participate in the Moms For Liberty debate. However, Feenstra is among the candidates in the primary field who back a so-called “personhood” law that declares life begins at conception and would result in an even more restrictive, near-total abortion ban. In Congress, Feenstra has repeatedly cosponsored the Life At Conception Act, which aims to define “personhood” as beginning at conception and would confer constitutional rights on embryos immediately after fertilization. Democrats and reproductive rights advocates have pointed out “personhood” legislation could also outlaw certain necessary medical procedures and fertility treatments including in-vitro fertilization. On the national level, Trump has claimed he strongly supports IVF, despite the fact his party’s support for fetal personhood ideology has jeopardized the treatment. 

In a statement to TPM, Steen reiterated his support for a “personhood” law while also expressing support for IVF.

“I believe life begins at conception. That’s not just a political position for me, it’s a moral conviction. Every child, from the very beginning, is worthy of protection, and as governor I will always fight to defend life from conception to natural death,” the statement from Steen read.

“At the same time, I have tremendous compassion for couples who are walking through the heartbreak of infertility. I support IVF and the families who have been blessed through that process. Wanting a child and praying for a child is a beautiful thing, and we should never dismiss that,” Steen continued. 

Steen’s comments on “water quality” weren’t the only dramatic statement that came as the Iowa candidates sought to burnish their anti-abortion credentials at the Moms For Liberty debate. Entrepreneur Zach Lahn, who also supports a “personhood” law, answered the question about when life begins with a stunning claim that he had been “banned for life” from a fertility clinic. 

“Life is one of those things that you can’t fudge on. I don’t tell the story often and I’ll be very brief about it, but my wife and I went through a process and we were at a fertility clinic,” Lahn said. “We are now banned for life from that clinic because we refused to discard the embryos. And the ones we refused turned into our youngest son, Fritz. So that’s how far you have to go with this.”

Fertility clinics typically offer couples the option to preserve viable embryos so the potential parents can later choose whether to implant them. TPM reached out to Lahn and his campaign to clarify what happened and how he was banned. He did not respond or offer any explanation. 

Update (March 30): While Liberty Counsel Action did not initially respond to a request for comment, spokesperson John Stemberger reached out to TPM following publication of this story and referred us to a document prepared by the group that addressed criticism of the “Abortion In Our Water” report. The document insisted it was based on “irrefutable data” and suggested the criticism was an effort to “whitewash the reality that aborted babies, related medical waste, and active abortion pill contaminants are daily being flushed into our water systems.”

How a State Domestic Terrorism Law Has Boosted the White House’s Texas ‘Antifa’ Crackdown

This article is part of TPM’s ongoing “Creating the Enemy Within” project, tracking the Trump administration’s efforts to crack down on dissent.

As the Trump administration brings anti-Trump activists up on terrorism charges, it’s finding that one state has already cleared a path. 

Continue reading “How a State Domestic Terrorism Law Has Boosted the White House’s Texas ‘Antifa’ Crackdown”

Please Take Three Minutes to Read This Post

Twice a year we ask for your help keeping TPM alive and thriving. Today is one of those days. It’s very, very important to our whole operation. We’ve just kicked off our Annual TPM Membership Drive. We do this because TPM is chronicling — generating and saving the receipts of — our on-going national crisis and we cannot do that without growing our number of subscribers. If you’re a TPM reader but not a member (see below if you are a member!) please take this moment to join us by becoming a member. Maybe you used to be a member and your membership lapsed. We need you to come back and become a paying member. We have a 25% discount running for the duration of the drive.

What if you are a member? We need your help too.

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A Humiliating Reversal for the Sad-Sack Trump DOJ

More Proof the White House Runs DOJ

One day after it asked the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to allow it to voluntarily withdraw its appeal of its losses in the law firm executive order cases, the Trump DOJ reversed course in humiliating fashion. In an extraordinary glimpse into who really runs the Justice Department, its No. 3 official asked the appeals court to let him withdraw his request to withdraw the appeal.

The level of mismanagement, poor communication, bad faith, and ineptitude involved in something like this happening is staggering and hard to even begin to explain.

As a threshold matter, this never happens. Decisions like this were, in the past, made at the highest levels of the Justice Department, including the attorney general, the solicitor general, and multiple other senior leaders, in close consultation with the White House Counsel’s Office. Once made, after a thorough and well-trod process, and then presented to a court, decisions were not willy nilly reversed.

The sheer disorder and chaos that runs through the Trump administration — subject as it is to the whims of one man — makes it nearly impossible to reconstruct what happened in this instance based on past practice, formal hierarchies, and the players involved. It is truly a shitshow. So much so, that those involved, all the way up to and including the Oval Office, care not whether they befool themselves in public and further damage their standing with an increasingly incredulous judicial branch.

The Trump administration went 0-4 in the law firm cases. It’s going to lose on appeal, too. For a brief moment, some sense prevailed somewhere in the Justice Department — probably the Solicitor General’s Office, but not necessarily only there — and the decision was made to cut the administration’s losses. But it was clear that some tensions already existed because that decision either wasn’t made or those involved were unable to persuade their higher-ups of its validity in time not to appeal in the first place.

The filing yesterday was bare bones and offered nothing in the way of a real explanation for what went down behind the scenes. It was over the signature of Stan Woodward, Jr., a former Jan. 6 defense lawyer and now the DOJ’s No. 3 official. He’s been put in numerous untenable situations before, including as recently as last week, when he appeared in person to defend against Abrego Garcia’s vindictive prosecution claim. Yet he soldiers on, inexplicably.

This reversal here is so unusual that it’s difficult to find perfectly comparable incidents in the DOJ’s history. But it’s of the caliber of unprofessionalism, political interference, and personal embarrassment that you’d expect to lead to multiple resignations rather than be involved with such nonsense. So far, crickets.

Liberty Law School’s Career Advice

From Above the Law:

An email sent to Liberty University School of Law students over the weekend lays out, in refreshingly unvarnished terms, what the administration’s hiring pipeline actually looks like. And it’s exactly as bad as everyone suspected:

“The two most important requirements are you MUST be aligned politically with President Trump and his administration and you must be willing to work hard. Don’t be scared off by the transcript requirement. GPA is not a strong factor. If you meet those two requirements, you have a shot.”

Election 2026: All Eyes On Texas

TX-Sen: Sen. John Cornyn (R) wound up in a runoff for the GOP nomination against state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), as expected, but Cornyn did manage to pull a plurality of votes. In the Democratic primary, despite a hard-fought race, state Rep. James Talarico (D) won comfortably over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D).

TX-23: Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), who allegedly had an affair with a former staffer who took her own life, has been forced into a runoff against YouTuber and pro-gun influencer Brandon Herrera.

TX-02: Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R), a right-winger who nevertheless took issue with the Jan. 6 attack and didn’t vote to overturn the 2020 election, was swept out of office by state Rep. Steve Toth (R), a megachurch pastor. Crenshaw was the first House incumbent to lose in a primary this cycle.

Not Going According to Plan In Iran

By President Trump’s own admission, Iran regime replacement is not going according to the original overly optimistic plan:

Trump: "Most of the people we had in mind are dead. We had some in mind from that group that is dead. And now we have another group. They may be dead also. Pretty soon we're not gonna know anybody. I mean, Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack and we kept govt totally in tact."

Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) 2026-03-03T17:00:09.816Z

What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces in Iraq with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, CNN reports.

Latest from the Middle East …

  • A U.S. submarine sank an Iranian Navy destroyer in international waters off Sri Lanka, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed. The attack came as the head of U.S. Central Command warned that U.S. forces are sinking the “entire” Iranian Navy and had already destroyed 17 vessels. Sri Lanka authorities rescued 32 sailors, all of them reported to be in critical condition. The Iris Dena sailed with a crew of 180. A search continues for additional survivors. (On quick inspection, this appears to be the first time a U.S. submarine has sunk an enemy ship since the USS Torsk torpedoed a Japanese vessel on Aug. 14, 1945, the day before Emperor Hirohito announced Japan’s surrender in World War II.)
  • In a possible widening of the conflict in the region, NATO forces in the eastern Mediterranean shot down an Iranian ballistic missile that had crossed Iraqi and Syrian air space apparently en route to Turkey, though there was no immediate confirmation that the NATO country was the target.
  • A container ship was abandoned off the coast of Oman in the Strait of Hormuz after being set ablaze by an unknown projectile just above the waterline. All crew were accounted for. No one claimed immediate responsibility for the attack, but Iran has threatened international shipping in the strait in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli air strikes.

For Your Radar …

A Russian-flagged LNG tanker exploded and sank in the Mediterranean off the coast of Libya. The cause of the explosion is not yet publicly known. All 30 crew members were rescued.

What you're looking at is not a sunrise — it's the Russian LNG tanker ARCTIC METAGAZ (IMO 9243148) struck by a massive explosion in the Mediterranean this morning. Photographed by crew aboard a merchant vessel, via Vanguard Tech.

Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc.bsky.social) 2026-03-03T23:04:57.168Z

Meanwhile, in the Western Hemisphere …

President Trump has repeatedly promised that the U.S. campaign against alleged drug-smuggling boats on the high seas would expand to include land-based attacks, and it appears Ecuador is the first place the U.S. is carrying out such strikes.

U.S. Special Forces are advising and supporting Ecuadorean commandos in raids against traffickers, who the Trump administration has rebranded as terrorists, the NYT reports. The extent of the U.S. involvement remains murky. “Believed” is doing a lot of work here: “The Americans are not believed to be participating in the actual raids, but are helping the Ecuadorean troops plan their operations, and are providing intelligence and logistics support, the official said.”

Quote of the Day

In a new ruling, U.S. District Judge Gary R. Brown of the Eastern District of New York ripped ICE’s conduct in detaining a man — who was lawfully admitted to the United States under a special program for abused minors and then later graduated from college and was legally working in theatrical lighting design — “simply because he looked like someone else for whom the agents were purportedly searching”:

Unquestionably, the laws of human decency condemn such villainy. Equally, the laws of this nation, including the Constitution, statutory law and regulations, proscribe the illegal arrest and detention of the petitioner as well as the retaliatory termination, without notice, of the privileges associated with his SIJ status. While the Executive Branch retains the right – as it has done – to set policy regarding immigration matters, it is forbidden from trampling our system of laws – a system which has safeguarded this nation for close to 250 years.

Mass Deportation Watch

  • Minnesota U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen and one of his top deputies were forced to take the witness stand during an eight-hour hearing Tuesday as U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Bryan of St. Paul considers finding them in contempt of court for violating court orders related to the return of personal property of immigrant detainees who won their releases after filing habeas claims. Several of the dozens of cases in dispute were reportedly resolved over the course of the day in court. Bryan did not immediately rule on whether to hold anyone in contempt.
  • Close to 650 federal agents remain in Minnesota, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem told a Senate hearing, which conflicts with numerous Trump administration claims of a substantial drawdown in the number of immigration enforcement agents since the announced end of Operation Metro Surge.
  • At least 14 active measles cases have been reported at Camp East Montana, the tent encampment on the Fort Bliss U.S. Army base near El Paso.

Bovino Under Internal Investigation

CBP commander Gregory Bovino is under internal DHS investigation for disparaging remarks he reportedly made on a phone call with federal prosecutors about the Jewish faith of Minnesota U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen.

The investigation, which is being conducted by the Office of Professional Responsibility for CBP, came to light when one of its investigators contacted the NYT for help in contacting the sources for its story on the phone call in question.

The Corruption: DHS Edition

DHS under Kristi Noem has “systematically obstructed” the department’s inspector general, he wrote in a letter to Congress on Monday and obtained by the WSJ. Joseph Cuffari, who was appointed as IG in Trump I, cited 11 instances in which he was blocked from accessing records and information, including a “particularly egregious” case in which he continues to be denied access to a DHS database as part of a criminal investigation with national security implications.

Polis Poised to Grant Tina Peters Clemency

Under pressure and threats from President Trump, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) continues to signal that he will grant some form of clemency to convicted election denier Tina Peters:

Strongest signal yet from Colorado Gov Jared Polis (D) that he'll give clemency to Tina Peters as President Trump has demanded. Polis notes a fmr Dem State Senator recently got probation on charges that drew prison time for Peters, who unrepentantly defied the judge at sentencing

Kyle Clark (@kylec.bsky.social) 2026-03-04T01:45:34.016Z

A Rare Spot of Good News

A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration’s effort to kill NYC’s wildly successful first-in-the-country congestion pricing program in Manhattan.

Hot tips? Juicy scuttlebutt? Keen insights? Let me know. For sensitive information, use the encrypted methods here.