9:55 p.m.: And AP calls it for Protasiewicz. Put a fork in Dan Kelly he’s done. Dems will control Wisconsin Supreme Court, a development with big ramifications in and out of the state.

9:53 p.m.: I’m not good enough with numbers to “call” anything. But I think you can consider the Wisconsin court race done with Protasiewicz winning with a relatively comfortable margin. Mid-single digits.

******

No one is calling the race here. But liberal candidate Janet Protasiewicz seems to be running ahead of her necessary margins basically everywhere in the state. Conservative Kelly just doesn’t seem to have the numbers. There’s some reluctance to call the race I think in part because off-year elections can be so unpredictable. But I don’t think anyone looking at the details thinks there’s much chance Kelly wins. The election is nominally non-partisan. Thus the two candidates are not formally running as Democrats and Republicans, though in practice it’s a thoroughly partisanized contest.

Going into the primary, one GOP observer told me he thought only one of the GOP candidates had a shot in the general election. That wasn’t Kelly. Basically unelectable, this person said. It gives you a sense of lessons learned from the 2022 midterm.

This really is the big one. A lot rides on this and not just for Wisconsinites.

9:42 p.m.: Haven’t seen any formal calls but hard to see how Kelly wins this. Seems to be running behind the necessary numbers everywhere. Seems like Protasiewicz wins this and maybe by a pretty solid margin.

9:41 p.m.: Still not clear if Protasiewicz will win but Republicans already discussing impeaching her.

9:35 p.m.: Basically seems like Protasiewicz is running at or ahead of the margins she needs basically everywhere. Obviously that’s still with most of the votes uncounted. But you’d certainly rather be her than Kelly.

9:31 p.m.: A bit more clarity. Numbers are looking solid for Protasiewicz. But too early to say anything definitive.

9:25 p.m.: Results coming in pretty quickly now. But no real consensus on what the numbers show. Just a smattering of results and in an off year election differential turnout makes things hard to predict until we see more numbers.

Race not called yet. But it’s looking like Brandon Johnson is in a strong position to defeat Paul Vallas in the Chicago mayoral runoff. Johnson is the more progressive candidate, Vallas the more centrist or right-leaning. Both are Democrats. This was definitely portrayed as a referendum on urban Dem “soft on crime” politics. But voters don’t seem to have gone along with that narrative. Vallas currently has a tiny lead. But all the folks who know how to analyze the numbers say Vallas’ chances are on life support, given the votes that are left to be counted.

As I was writing this very short post, Johnson just moved into the tiniest of leads. But again, it’s not a matter of watching each additional vote come in. The remaining votes in toto seem to heavily favor Johnson. Dave Wasserman hasn’t called it yet but as of 9:05 he says it’s “virtually done.”

A big thank you to the 108 new members who subscribed to TPM since we launched our annual drive yesterday afternoon. We really, really appreciate it. We’ve had a big news day and we’ve got a big election tonight. But I just want to remind you: This is a really important drive for us. Please take a moment to join us right this moment. Just click here. Thank you.

We’ve given our everything to capturing the spectacle and the legal intricacies of today’s events. The big thing is that we’ve now gotten to see the indictment. We know what Trump’s facing. But don’t forget that there are two big elections tonight. The Chicago mayoral run off is a big one. But the Wisconsin Supreme Court election is not only big for Wisconsin — it has major, major national implications as well. There’s no denying that the latter is the most consequential election of 2023. And we’re going to know the results tonight. As I’ve mentioned before, the people who I follow to get the minute to minute results on election nights are the folks on this curated Twitter list.

In other news, our friend Rick Hasen thinks the Bragg case is weak, relies too much on novel legal theories that could get bogged down in appeals for years or even tossed for legal insufficiency. I have no ability to evaluate the legal arguments at this level. But it’s significant to me that Rick sees the case’s merits in these terms. My own expectation is that the whole question will become moot, as a public if not a legal matter, with other indictments. But we shall see.

Late Update: Here’s a contrary take on the case and New York state law from JustSecurity.