In addition to the prosaic matters of corruption, securities fraud, free home renovations from a donor and obstructing federal investigations, Texas AG Ken Paxton’s upcoming impeachment trial in the Texas state Senate will include evidence that he used a fake Uber account to hide visits to his mistress as well as burner phones and secret personal email addresses.
The Curious Unreality of the GOP Primary Race
Recently we were planning debate coverage. And to do that we went back and watched one of the early 2016 GOP debates. It was striking to me on a number of levels. Only seven years ago — but it was a lifetime ago, truly a different world in politics. A huge amount of the debate was about combating the ISIS threat. You had a bunch of grandstanding about the power and necessity of being willing to say the phrase “radical Islamic terrorism.” But the biggest difference was that hard-to-quite-capture dimension of nothing Republican presidential candidates say really mattering because of the unspoken presence of Donald Trump.
Trump was on the stage in this debate. But it was early. It was before the only real question was whether or not any of the candidates would be able to stop Trump. Today you might see Nikki Haley, or Mike Pence or Ron DeSantis making a speech or doing an interview. But it doesn’t really matter what they’re saying. Because whatever they’re saying isn’t actually what they’re saying. It’s a way to make an argument or communicate something else about the thing that can’t be mentioned: Donald Trump. It’s like a mime performance where the unseen object they’re reacting against is Donald Trump.
Trump’s BS Ain’t Gonna Fly In Federal Court
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
What Price Trump’s Gamesmanship?
I always found that establishing yourself as a reliable narrator to the judge was good for you as a lawyer, good for your client, and not to be too earnest but just plain good overall.
But that is so not Trump’s style. He’ll make any argument at any time for any purpose without regard to whether it will withstand scrutiny, hold up to the slightest challenge, undermine other better arguments, or make him and his lawyers look like fools.
In a new filing Monday, Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team used Trump’s absurdly over-the-top bid for a 2026 trial date in the Jan. 6 case to begin to show this pattern of unreliability to U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan:
- Funny math: Trump’s team claimed that the median time for a prosecution of this kind to get to trial was 29.4 months, but DOJ pointed out that that 29.4 months is the median time not from indictment until the start of trial but from indictment to the completion of sentencing by the court. Shorter message: Trump deceived you, your honor.
- More funny math: The cases Trump used to arrive at its median number came from the period of October 2021 until September 2022 when federal courts were unwinding the COVID backlog and only 22 cases went to trial nationwide, DOJ argued. “This small and skewed sample provides no help to the Court in deciding an appropriate trial date,” DOJ argued. Shorter message: We’re helpful, your honor, and the defendant is not.
- Bellyaching: Trump complained loudly that it would be impossible to review the millions of pages of discovery in time for 2024 trial date, but DOJ pointed out that no one manually reviews every page of discovery any more. That’s what electronic discovery vendors do and Trump has one. Shorter message: Don’t be taken in by the defendant’s histrionics, your honor.
- Hyperbole: Trump compared the amount of discovery to tall buildings and Russian novels, but DOJ scoffed at the hyperbole: “comparisons to the height of the Washington Monument and the length of a Tolstoy novel are neither helpful nor insightful.” Shorter message: We can provide reliable input for the real decisions your honor must make.
- Fake conflicts: Trump bitterly complained that DOJ wanted jury selection in the Jan. 6 case to start on the same day as a scheduled hearing in the Mar-a-Lago case in Florida. DOJ acknowledged the conflict and adjusted it’s proposed schedule accordingly. Shorter message: We can reasonably resolve real conflicts and here we are doing so, reasonably.
It was a short, six-page filing. It won’t amount to much in the long run. But it’s beginning to establish a pattern for the judge of Trump being unreasonable and prosecutors being reasonable. One side is reliable and judicious; the other is voluble and self-interested.
By all accounts, these are things that Chutkan (and any good judge) will recognize early and take into account to avoid being led around by the nose, taken advantage of, and otherwise bamboozled into bad decisions. In contrast, the single most concerning thing about U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon in the Mar-a-Lago case is that she may be too inexperienced or too biased or ideologically compromised to recognize a bad-apple defendant making preposterous arguments and representations to the court.
It took many journalists years to figure out they were being played by Trump (and some of the cable nets still haven’t learned). We can’t afford for Trump’s judges to be that slow on the uptake.
Trump Must Post Bond And Shut Up
No release on his own recognizance for Trump in Georgia. He must post a $200,000 bond and submit to the following conditions of pre-trial release:
Trump To Surrender Thursday
Or so he says:
The Rush To Federal Court
Two more defendants in Fani Willis’ Georgia racketeering prosecution are seeking to have the case removed to federal court: former Trump DOJ official Jeff Clark and former Georgia GOP chair David Shafer.
Clark’s basis for removal is plausible: He was a federal official at the time of the alleged criminal conduct.
Shafer, who was a fake elector for Trump in Georgia, has a more curious and provocative claim: He’s arguing that as a “contingent” presidential elector he was an officer of the United States and therefore entitled to have the case tried in federal court.
Eastman Gets His Delay. Kinda.
Coup architect John Eastman failed to in his bid to postpone his disbarment proceedings in California on account of his indictment in Georgia, but he has won a small delay … so that he may surrender on the Georgia charges lol:
Indicted Santos Fundraiser In Plea Talks
In a new filing, federal prosecutors said they are attempting to resolve the case against Sam Miele, a former fundraiser for Rep. George Santos (R-NY), short of trial. Miele was indicted for allegedly impersonating a one-time aide to Speaker Kevin McCarthy to juice Miele’s own fundraising efforts.
Looking Ahead
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals is poised to issue three significant rulings in the coming weeks that could bear on Special Counsel Jack Smith’s work, CNN reminds us.
First GOP Debate Field Set
A reminder that the presidential primary debates are a far cry from the Lincoln-Douglas debates, the presidential commission general election debates, or the old-style debates hosted by a civic-minded organization like the League of Women Voters.
These are not really civic endeavors but ratings boosts for the TV networks. It’s a bad situation we’ve gotten ourselves into, and we shouldn’t fall into covering these debates as anything other than what they are.
With that caveat out of the way, the lineup for the Trump-less Fox News GOP debate Wednesday night is set: Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy and Doug Burgum.
Factoid Of The Day
A Closing Note
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Government By Drama
We’ve been covering different dimensions of this story. But I wanted to highlight what now seems to be the likely government shutdown this fall. We’ve had shutdowns before and by the standards of recent Republican high-wire acts and hostage taking events they’re relatively minor affairs. What is notable about this round of it is that there isn’t really any big budgetary impasse it’s over. We did that during the debt ceiling drama back in May. At some level it’s House Republicans wanting to re-litigate the fight they believe — reasonably enough — that they lost. But even that doesn’t capture the dimensions of it because that agreement has terms that apply to this kind of situation. Kevin McCarthy made them release their hostage.
Continue reading “Government By Drama”Dems Makes It Clear Early And Often Whose Fault A Government Shutdown Will Be
Any hope on House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s part of quietly passing a short-term spending bill to buy himself more time to wrangle his conference hardliners and avoid a shutdown was dashed on Monday by those very far-right members.
Continue reading “Dems Makes It Clear Early And Often Whose Fault A Government Shutdown Will Be”Trump Agrees To $200K Bond In Georgia Election Case
Former President Trump agreed on Monday to a $200,000 bond for his pre-trial release in the Georgia racketeering case against him.
Continue reading “Trump Agrees To $200K Bond In Georgia Election Case”Expelled Tennessee Three-er Justin Jones Will Introduce Gun Control Bill In Special Session
Tennessee state Reps. Justin Pearson of Memphis and Justin Jones of Nashville will be back on the House floor on Monday for their first legislative session since comfortably reclaiming their seats in an early August special election.
Continue reading “Expelled Tennessee Three-er Justin Jones Will Introduce Gun Control Bill In Special Session”Argument To Disqualify Trump From The 2024 Ballot Enters The Republican Primary
The argument to bar Donald Trump from the 2024 election based on a section of the 14th Amendment has officially entered the bloodstream of the Republican primary.
Continue reading “Argument To Disqualify Trump From The 2024 Ballot Enters The Republican Primary”How Not To Get Overinvested In The Trump Prosecutions
A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.
Stay Focused On The Big Picture
Today’s Morning Memo has a blizzard of small- to medium-bore developments in the Trump cases. But I want to caution not to get too fixated on the ins and outs of the procedural wrangling in the case.
It’s somewhat of an irony that the due process afforded to a criminal defendant is itself designed to protect the rule of law, but they’re not a great proxy for the rule of law violations of which Trump is accused.
Take, for example, the protective orders in the Mar-a-Lago case, or the CIPA procedures in both federal cases against Trump, or the question of removal of the Georgia case to federal court. Each are significant in their own limited way, but a Trump win or loss on any of these preliminary matters doesn’t necessarily represent a win or loss for the rule of law. None of them stand on par with what Trump is accused of or the threat he poses to the rule of law.
The vindication of the rule of law takes time and isn’t always pretty. So take a deep breath. Keep your eye on the big picture. Don’t live and die on each procedural ruling. Don’t overinvest in the small stuff.
Meadows Moves To Dismiss Georgia Case
Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows quickly moved in federal court to have the Georgia election interference indictment against him dismissed. The weekend filing asserts that Meadows is immune friom state prosecution under the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause.
Meadows filed the motion to dismiss in the same federal venue where he is seeking to remove the state court case.
Drumbeat: Use The Disqualifications Clause Against Trump
- J. Michael Luttig and Laurence H. Tribe: The Constitution Prohibits Trump From Ever Being President Again
- Joseph Ferguson and Thomas A. Durkin: Trump’s Actions Have Already Disqualified Him From The Presidency
The Week Ahead In Trump Prosecutions
- NBC News: Law enforcement expects Trump to surrender at the Atlanta jail late this week. The deadline for him to surrender is Friday, Aug. 25.
- ABC News: Trump legal team expected to confer with Atlanta DA Fani Willis’ office early this week about the terms of the former president’s bond package.
Jan 6 Miscellany
- NBC News: “The widow of a police officer who died by suicide after he was assaulted during the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol has been found eligible for a federal benefits program for the families of fallen officers.”
- EmptyWheel: Beryl Howell Scoffs That We Think We Know Anything About The Trump Investigations
- Rolling Stone: Arizona Investigators ‘Aggressively’ Looking at Top Trump Ally Kelli Ward
- Journal-Constitution: A look behind the scenes as country awaited Georgia grand jury’s decision
- WaPo: FBI joins investigation of threats to grand jurors in Trump Georgia case
Chesebro At the Capitol On Jan 6
The NYT had its own version of CNN’s groundbreaking report that placed coup architect Ken Chesebro at the Capitol with Alex Jones on Jan. 6.
Double Whammy For Trump In MAL Case
- Former Vice President Mike Pence on Sunday: “I was never made aware of any broad-based effort to declassify documents.”
- Former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows has told special counsel Jack Smith’s investigators that he could not recall Trump ever declassifying broad sets of classified materials before leaving the White House, ABC News reported Sunday.
MAL Miscellany
- Bloomberg: Trump and His Aide Nauta Claim DOJ ‘Improprieties’ in Using Two Grand Juries
- DOJ wants the same protective order imposed on defendant Carlos De Oliveira as for Walt Nauta, preventing them from accessing classified documents in the case.
Proud Boy On The Lam
A Proud Boy convicted in a bench trial for his role on Jan. 6 disappeared ahead of his sentencing Friday. A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Chris Worrell, who had been under house arrest in Florida pending his sentencing. Prosecutors are seeking a 14-year sentence for him.
Trump Loses Bid To Delay E. Jean Carroll Case
A federal judge in New York rejected Donald Trump’s fourth attempt to pause E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case against him as a “delay” tactic.
Historic News Out Of Gitmo
A military judge has tossed the confession of Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, who is accused of being the mastermind of the 2000 bombing of the U.S.S. Cole, ruling that it was the product of illegal torture by the CIA:
James O’Keefe Under Criminal Investigation
Project Veritas founder and ousted CEO James O’Keefe is reportedly under investigation by the Westchester County district attorney’s office in suburban NYC.
Why Did Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal Collapse?
- NYT: Inside the Collapse of Hunter Biden’s Plea Deal
- Politico: In talks with prosecutors, Hunter Biden’s lawyers vowed to put the president on the stand
2024 Ephemera
- NYT: Trump Plans to Skip G.O.P. Debate for Interview With Tucker Carlson
- NYT: Inside Trump’s Decision to Skip the G.O.P. Debate
- LATEST: Trump to skip all of the GOP debates.
- New Iowa Poll:
- Trump, 42%
- DeSantis, 19%
- Tim Scott, 9%
- Nikki Haley, 6%
- Mike Pence, 6%
- Chris Christie, 5%
- Vivek Ramaswamy, 4%
- WSJ: Will Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) run for re-election in 2024?
Ugh
A 66-year-old woman was shot and killed Friday in Cedar Glen, California, allegedly by a man who objected to the LGBTQ+ Pride flag she was flying in front of the clothing store she owned.
Meanwhile, Over On Fox News …
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GOP Sen. Cassidy Says Trump Should Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Citing ‘Almost A Slam Dunk’ Case
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) said on Sunday that he thinks former President Donald Trump should drop out of the 2024 GOP presidential race.
“I think so,” Cassidy told CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked whether he thinks Trump should withdraw. “But obviously, that’s up to him. I mean, you’re just asking my opinion, but he will lose to Joe Biden if you look at the current polls.”
Continue reading “GOP Sen. Cassidy Says Trump Should Drop Out Of 2024 Race, Citing ‘Almost A Slam Dunk’ Case”