A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

‘A Threat To The Character Of Our Nation’

It was quite a contrast Thursday as President Joe Biden gave a forceful speech warning of the threat to democracy and the rule of law posed by MAGA Republicans while those same radicals were taking overt steps in the House of Representatives to impeach him on baseless, evidence-free claims of wrongdoing.

In a speech in Arizona, Biden drew a through-line from Donald Trump’s threats against the media to the House GOP’s government shutdown to Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s attacks on the military leadership. Biden is not a powerful speaker, and his delivery often steps on his best lines, but don’t let the presentation distract from how extraordinary it is that an American president is having to issue such warnings about the threat to democracy.

A sampling of his remarks (based on the White House transcript):

• “And there is something dangerous happening in America now.  There is an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy: the MAGA Movement.”
• “Their extreme agenda, if carried out, would fundamentally alter the institutions of American democracy as we know it.”
• “They’re pushing a notion the defeated former President expressed when he was in office and believes applies only to him.  And this is a dangerous notion: This president is above the law, with no limits on power.”
• “Did you ever think you’d hear leaders of political parties in the United States of America speak like that?  Seizing power, concentrating power, attempting to abuse power, purging and packing key institutions, spewing conspiracy theories, spreading lies for profit and power to divide America in every way, inciting violence against those who risk their lives to keep America safe, weaponizing against the very soul of who we are as Americans.”
• “This MAGA threat is the threat to the brick and mortar of our democratic institutions.  But it’s also a threat to the character of our nation and gives our — that gives our Constitution life, that binds us together as Americans in common cause.”

You’ve been warned.

GOP Impeachment Shitshow

Two things you need to know about yesterday’s clown show as the House GOP initiated its impeachment inquiry: 1) The ham-handedness of their handling of the hearing reinforced how baseless, unserious, and often silly their impeachment jihad is; but 2) Those kinds of theater reviews of their performance can often veer into coverage that would, if their theatrics were more polished, eat it right up – so be a careful news consumer.

If you want a better sense of how epically bad yesterday went, Aaron Rupar has you covered with this video-heavy thread:

My thread on the House GOP's first impeachment hearing begins here. Follow along for notable moments and commentary. pic.twitter.com/XzYHEaC0sj

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 28, 2023

BREAKING …

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) has died.

Trump Won’t Seek Removal Of Georgia RICO Case

After toying with the idea of removing the sweeping RICO case against him from Georgia state court to federal court, Donald Trump has decided to stay put. This was a complicated calculation for Trump, and oddly the low odds of succeeding were probably among the least of his considerations.

Two major factors argued against him seeking removal: 1) The case was likely to move faster in federal court, which is in conflict with Trump’s broad strategy of delay; and 2) Any effort by Trump to put on evidence to argue for removal would have been very constrained by the fact that having him testify would have been a disaster.

Trump Seeks Another Delay In Jan. 6 Case

Fresh on the heels of seeking a delay in the CIPA process in his Jan. 6 case, Donald Trump is seeking to push back the deadline for pretrial motions by 60 days.

Trump Loses Bid To Delay NY Civil Trial

A New York appeals court declined to delay the start of next week’s civil trial by the state attorney general against Trump, his adult sons, and numerous of his business entities. It had made a last ditch effort to stave off trial by suing the trial judge. Yep.

Meanwhile, Attorney General Letitia James’ witness list for trial includes Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, Ivanka Trump, and Michael Cohen.

Disqualification Clause Watch

Minnesota’s top election official isn’t taking a position on whether the Disqualification Clause renders Donald Trump ineligible for office but agrees the case currently pending before the state’s Supreme Court is the proper vehicle for answering that question.

So Many Trump Legal Entanglements!

After years of effort to make it happen, former FBI official Peter Strzok is finally set to depose Donald Trump next week – if a government shutdown doesn’t interfere.

Pro Tip: When On The Lam, Don’t Go Home

The Proud Boy convicted in the Jan. 6 attack who failed to show up to his sentencing last month was arrested … at his Florida home.

Is Biden Special Counsel Close To Wrapping Up?

Special Counsel Robert Hur’s investigation into President Biden’s handling of classified information from his vice presidency is still pending. The NYT reports that Hur’s team has interviewed, among others, Steve Ricchetti, Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken, Ron Klain, and Michael Carpenter.

Dead Man Walking?

Things are tense inside the House GOP conference, as the far-right gang plots to replace Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker as early as next week with his top deputy Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), the WaPo reports.

House Progressives Name Their Price

If Kevin McCarthy comes hat in hand for Democratic votes to pass a budget deal or to save his speakership, House progressives want to extract a power-sharing agreement from him, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told TPM.

GOP Shutdown Watch

• Chances are high that when you read Morning Memo on Monday, the federal government will have shutdown after running out of funding.
• The House GOP will try to pass a stopgap funding bill Friday, but it’s not clear McCarthy has the votes. Even if it passes, it’s DOA in the Senate.
• As of this morning, there is no obvious vehicle in the wings for avoiding a shutdown.
• After a long ride on the struggle bus, the House GOP was able to pass three of four appropriations bills Thursday, but that won’t have any real impact on the looming shutdown.

2024 Is Gonna Be Another Misinfo Shitshow

Elon Musk has gotten rid of the team at X/Twitter assigned to combat election misinformation.

Idaho Abortion Ban Back In Effect

A three-judge panel of Trump appointees on the Ninth Circuit lifted an injunction blocking enforcement of Idaho’s near-total ban on abortion.

Makes My Head Hurt

The folks ginning up all kinds of conspiracy theories to justify a Biden impeachment are now conspiracizing about why they sucked so bad in the first impeachment hearing:

Raskin says he heard directly from Republicans on the House floor that the right-wing believes Kevin McCarthy set up today’s inquiry hearing to fail.

Raskin: They couldn’t believe that such a disaster would just happen by accident pic.twitter.com/q08zzuCzqo

— Acyn (@Acyn) September 29, 2023

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A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

GOP Shutdown Watch

Much of the coverage of the looming government shutdown is just terrible because it doesn’t accurately capture the power dynamic at play, obscures what’s really going on, and falls into lazy (yet breathless!) procedural play-by-play.

Here’s the real power dynamic to focus on: There is bipartisan support for a budget deal in the Senate and there are enough votes in the House for such a deal, but the holdup (or the stickup, to be more accurate) is that the Freedom Caucus is threatening Kevin McCarthy’s speakership so he won’t bring bipartisan deals to the floor. That is the rub here. Full stop.

Anything you read about the dynamic being Biden v. McCarthy or Senate v. House is simply wrong. It’s not even quite right to frame it as far-right House GOP v. rest of the House GOP. McCarthy is being extorted by the far-right and caving to the pressure by refusing to bring to the floor budget vehicles that would pass right now … today … in a heartbeat.

What Happens Next?

I’m getting questions about what will happen, and while I don’t like making predictions, it’s fair to say:

• With the House GOP’s right-wing circus wanting a shutdown, it’s more likely than not we get one starting Oct. 1. In lieu of a shutdown, they might take McCarthy’s speakership instead but that would be the dog catching the car, and for as crazy as the Freedom Caucus is they seem to realize that the current setup is perfect for them: They can keep McCarthy on a short leash, continue to hold a cartoon bomb (💣) and threaten to detonate it, and break institutions, processes, and norms with impunity.
• For those reasons, it’s hard for me to imagine a short, quickly resolved shutdown. It’s possible, but there’s no obvious forcing mechanism to get a deal done now or after the shutdown begins. Perhaps the end-of-year holidays create some additional pressure, but that would mean a record-long shutdown.
• Whatever the ultimate resolution, it’s going to be messy and convoluted and designed to save face and obscure the real underlying power dynamic. Unfortunately, part of why we’re in this morass is that the Freedom Caucus sees shutting the government down as a “win” no matter what concessions they make later.  

McCarthy deserves everything he gets, but dragging the elderly, the poor, the most vulnerable with him into a needless shutdown is a product of his own political and characterological weakness.

The Man Can’t Drive A Hard Bargain

It looked for a time like McCarthy was greenlighting a Biden impeachment inquiry as a way to placate the Freedom Caucus: You give me a budget deal, and I’ll give you room to run on impeachment. But at this point, it looks like McCarthy once again made a concession and in return got … nothing.

The House GOP’s inane, baseless, evidence-free impeachment inquiry kicks off today. All you need to know: Among the witnesses (none of whom are fact witnesses) for the first impeachment hearing is the shameless Jonathan Turley.

This Is Gross

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conservative white woman from Georgia, inserted a provision into the defense spending bill to slash the salary of Lloyd Austin, the first Black secretary of defense, to $1 per year. The bill passed the House (though it is DOA in the Senate).

Chutkan Refuses To Recuse

In a tight, solid, almost bulletproof ruling, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan denied Donald Trump’s motion to recuse herself from his Jan. 6 case.

Delay, Delay, Delay

You may have noticed that things have quieted a bit in the Trump prosecutions, at least publicly. Much pretrial wrangling is ahead, and there is prep behind the scenes for that and for the trials themselves. So a fierce level of activity behind closed doors, but a lot less public-facing movement – and notably a lot fewer new factual reveals, bombshells, or other newsy tidbits. Alas, this is what happens when the story shifts from the investigative and political realms into the criminal justice system.

Two new developments yesterday, though, that tell the story of Trump’s delay strategy:

• Special Counsel Jack Smith told the judge in the Mar-a-Lago case that Trump’s latest delay request “threatens to upend the entire schedule” and amounts to seeking a continuance without saying he’s seeking a continuance.
• Trump is now seeking a similar delay in a new filing in the Jan. 6 case.

Trump’s Threats Against Judges

Another day, another threat from Donald Trump toward a judge:

If a defendant in one of my cases had done this, I don't believe he'd just get a pass from the courts. & certainly not from the prosecutor. Trump has a pattern of disregard for the danger he places the community in. pic.twitter.com/Na56pM3o2D

— Joyce Alene (@JoyceWhiteVance) September 27, 2023

Andrew Weissmann is exactly right when he says something awful is going to happen to someone targeted by Trump and we’re all going to sit around lamenting that we saw it coming from a million miles away:

"It is so unreal that we're sitting at a table discussing that the former leader of the free world is making statements knowing darn well the sort of call and response affect he has…something terrible is going to happen" – @AWeissmann_ w/ @NicolleDWallace pic.twitter.com/jPaYgOsXOH

— Deadline White House (@DeadlineWH) September 27, 2023

Trump’s Threats Against The Military

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Milley is responding to comments by former President Donald Trump suggesting that Milley deserves to be executed for communications the general had with China. https://t.co/gOlcC0rE41 pic.twitter.com/pSgO9mNcEY

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) September 27, 2023

“What we are seeing is a parallel to the 1930s in Nazi Germany," says Ret. Gen. @mccaffreyr3 on the Trump movement.

“That’s 15-25 House members, a couple of Senators, and all those who are Trump MAGA loyalists—it’s a major threat to the armed forces of the United States." pic.twitter.com/EFiowWA1Mb

— All In with Chris Hayes (@allinwithchris) September 28, 2023

ICYMI

I had missed this exchange from Cassidy Hutchison’s interview with Lawrence O’Donnell the other night. You’ll recall that O’Donnell connected Hutchinson with Alexander Butterfield, the Nixon White House figure who revealed the Oval Office taping system. She recalls crying when she saw the segment with Butterfield and the promise she later made to him when they talked:

About Last Night’s Debate Fiasco …

The GOP debates sans Trump are the most meaningless exercises in the six decades we’ve been doing the televised presidential debate schtick:

Fun fact about tonight's debate: The 7 people on stage are collectively polling at 36% in national Republican average. If they were all one person, they would still be losing to Trump by 20 percent.

— Michael Scherer (@michaelscherer) September 27, 2023

If you’re curious despite yourself about what went down last night, our team has you covered:

• TPM: Republicans Yell, Interrupt, Make Uncomfortable Sex Jokes At Second Debate
• Josh Marshall: “The two GOP debates have amounted to a kind of cosplay episode.”

Good Read

TPM’s Hunter Walker: Joe Kent Is The Most Extreme House Candidate You Haven’t Heard About 

YOLO

Led by the sartorialists Joe Manchin and Mitt Romey, the Senate attended to the urgent business of formalizing a dress code for itself, to which John Fetterman responded:

And Sen Fetterman is out with this statement in response to the new dress code, which isn’t a statement at all, it’s just this picture: pic.twitter.com/1rzVdIUPuU

— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) September 27, 2023

Hoochie Coochie Man

I couldn’t pass up tonight’s opportunity to combine music and diplomacy. Was a pleasure to launch @StateDept’s new Global Music Diplomacy Initiative. pic.twitter.com/6MUfTXO9xK

— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) September 28, 2023

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