Will The House GOP Really Throw Its Lot In With Jim Jordan And All He Represents?

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

A Reader’s Guide To Today In The House

Let’s start with an assessment that violates the No. 1 rule of political reporting (posturing as knowing what’s about to happen): No one really knows whether Jim Jordan is going to win the speakership today. I certainly don’t, and rather than pretending otherwise it’s a good time to sit back and observe, report, and stay a bit humble.

It’s hard though, given the conventions of political reporting. A sample of the headlines gives you some sense of how opaque things are in the House GOP right now.

The vague way of saying we just don’t know:

The pretending to know (in totally opposite directions):

And my least favorite genre, the kinetic “things are moving!” headline:

The “things are moving” framing is my least favorite because there’s really no such thing as momentum in politics. It’s a perception, and perceptions can be gamed. Flacks and consultants regularly foster the illusion of momentum in order to close deals, lock down support, and cow adversaries. The sense that the train is leaving the station and you better get aboard can be fostered and manipulated.

I don’t know if that was deliberately being done by Jordan and his supporters over the last 24 hours (as one House Dem aide suggested), but the point is that it can be done and should make you skeptical about stories that use “momentum” as a framing device.

Smart Reads On Jim Jordan

  • TPM’s Kate Riga: Legislative Terrorist’ Jim Jordan Spins Himself As Great Uniter
  • Jamelle Bouie: The Apotheosis of Jim Jordan Is a Sight to Behold
  • Aaron Blake: Jim Jordan’s remarkably thin legislative track record
  • TPM’s Josh Marshall: Speaker Jordan’s Toxic Baggage

Chutkan Gags Trump … A Little

It’s a pretty limited gag order. It doesn’t prevent Trump from campaigning or from criticizing Joe Biden and the Justice Department. It doesn’t even come close to revoking his pretrial release. It’s hard to imagine any other defendant getting off so easy after suggesting publicly that a chief witness against him be executed. But here we are.

The gag order prevents Trump from attacking witnesses, prosecutors, and court staff in the Jan. 6 case against him. The immediate result was an extended and carefully orchestrated PR and campaign fundraising effort – in which Trump loudly proclaimed he was being censored by Joe Biden and victimized by the Deep State – that generally explored the full scope of the new gag order without necessarily violating it.

The most striking thing from the hearing was the lengths Trump lawyer John Lauro is willing to go to parrot Trump’s transparent bullshit in court, for which he got called out more than once by U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan.

Pretty Big Deal

The Justice Department is appealing the sentences of the five Proud Boy convicted in the Jan. 6 attack. The sentences were among the harshest meted out to Jan. 6 rioters and instigators, but they were below what the government had sought. The Justice Department is similarly appealing the sentences of the Oath Keepers convicted for Jan. 6.

Sedition Hunters

Let me put in a quick plug for TPM alum Ryan Reilly’s new book, Sedition Hunters: How January 6th Broke the Justice System, which goes on sale today.

Ryan has the deepest knowledge of anyone on the prosecutions of the Jan. 6 rioters, an encyclopedic understanding of the individual rioter cases.

Proud of him for his dogged coverage, his relentless bad jokes, and his new book.

Aileen Cannon Is Ready For Round 2

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has scheduled for Friday the resumption of the Garcia hearing for Trump co-defendant Walt Nauta in the Mar-a-Lago document case. You’ll recall she aborted the previous hearing when she accused prosecutors of making arguments to the court that they had not previously briefed. I took a pretty dim view of her claims, but Roger Parloff was in attendance at the hearing and was a bit more sympathetic in his extensive dispatch for Lawfare on how it went down.

Jack Smith Tries To Fight Off Trump Delay Tactics

For the truly obsessed, a new filing from Special Counsel Jack Smith Monday shows the lengths Trump is going to impede and delay his prosecution in the Mar-a-Lago case – but it also shows Smith fiercely fighting each attempt by Trump to buy a few more days or weeks. This will be a battle of attrition, with Judge Cannon clearly a big obstacle for Smith.

Trump Sues Over Steele Dossier

Donald Trump is seeking legal redress in London against Christopher Steele and his firm for the notorious Steele dossier. Specifically, Trump is seeking damages for alleged violations of Britain’s data protection laws.

Hate To See It

Rep. George Santos’ campaign is hemorrhaging cash.

Fascinating

How the tax returns of Donald Trump and other high earners were leaked.

Israel-Gaza Watch

  • Israel’s bombardment of Gaza continues.
  • Israel evacuated 20 cities along the northern border with Lebanon.
  • The U.S. deployed to the eastern Med the Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, which includes some 4,000 Marines and sailors, and a second carrier strike group. The USS Eisenhower joins the USS Ford, which arrived in international waters off Israel earlier this week.
  • CENTCOM commander, Army Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, arrived in Tel Aviv for a previously unannounced visit with his Israeli counterparts.
  • Biden will visit Israel and Jordan on Wednesday. The stop in Jordan will include meetings with Jordanian King Abdullah II, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
  • The announcement of Biden’s visit to Israel came after a long negotiation session between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in which commitments on a humanitarian package were obtained.
  • The head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service has taken responsibility for not foreseeing the Hamas attack.

News consumer alert: News reports that view international conflicts through the prism of the American president’s personal political prospects are among the least useful and most contrived out there. Don’t waste your time on the “Hamas Attack Deals Blow To Biden’s …” type stories.

Heartbreaking

The Justice Department has launched a federal hate crime investigation into the fatal stabbing in Illinois of a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy and the grievous wounding of his mother by their landlord.

Keep An Eye On This

NYT: “A man who was wrongfully convicted and spent more than 16 years in prison before being released in 2020 was fatally shot on Monday by a sheriff’s deputy in Georgia during a traffic stop, the authorities said.”

‘It Would Be A Good Idea For Us To Do It’

Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett voices public support for an ethics code for the high court.

Troll-in-Chief

Biden joins Truth Social.

WHATEVER IT TAKES

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DOJ Launches Hate Crime Investigation Into Brutal Killing Of Palestinian American Boy

Posted on by Nicole LaFond

Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Monday afternoon that the Justice Department has launched a federal hate crime investigation into the brutal killing of a six-year-old Palestinian American boy in Illinois.

“I am heartbroken by the abhorrent killing of Wadea Al-Fayoume, a six year old child who died after being stabbed 26 times with a military-style knife. On behalf of the entire Justice Department, I want to express my deepest condolences to his family and his community as they grieve his loss,” Garland said in a statement.

“The Justice Department has opened a federal hate crimes investigation into the events leading to the tragic death of Wadea Al-Fayoume and the serious injuries suffered by his mother, Hanaan Shahin. The Department is limited in what more it can say because this is an ongoing criminal investigation,” he continued.

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George Santos’ Campaign Is Hemorrhaging Cash

Posted on by Hunter Walker

Rep. George Santos (R-NY) has another problem on his hands to go with his mounting legal woes and growing field of 2024 challengers. According to a filing his campaign submitted to the Federal Election Commission on Sunday, Santos’ election operation lost more than $75,000 over the past quarter.

The financial issues for the embattled congressman — who has faced negative headlines for the past year over  his admitted litany of lies about his personal history and multiple indictments related to alleged financial improprieties — included over $16,500 in refunds to contributors. Axios, which flagged the filing, noted the majority of the returned funds “went to six large donors, all reportedly California residents who mostly donated $3,300 on June 23.”

Along with refunding contributions, Santos’ campaign spent over $42,000 on expenses. This included spending on a law firm and a campaign treasurer. Santos’ first treasurer, veteran GOP operative Nancy Marks, pleaded guilty to a fraud conspiracy charge related to her work on his campaign on Oct. 5. During Marks’ tenure, Santos’ campaign finance filings were frequently amended and studded with blatant irregularities. Santos was charged in a superseding indictment on Oct. 10 that accused him of reporting a loan to his campaign that did not actually exist, falsely inflating his contribution totals, and placing unauthorized charges on donors’ credit cards, an allegation that was first reported by TPM. 

Continue reading “George Santos’ Campaign Is Hemorrhaging Cash” →

‘Legislative Terrorist’ Jim Jordan Spins Himself As Great Uniter

Posted on by Kate Riga

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the baggage-touting, election-denying, shutdown enthusiast, who John Boehner once disgustedly christened a “legislative terrorist,” is trying to pitch himself as a Republican unifier ahead of his uncertain floor vote for speaker Tuesday.   

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Speaker Jordan’s Toxic Baggage

Posted on by Josh Marshall

It’s a bit of an understatement to say Jim Jordan comes to the Speakership with baggage. (Yes, I think it’s almost a given at this point.) But there’s baggage and then there’s baggage. There’s been very, very little discussion of the fact that Jordan is deeply entwined in a college wrestling molestation scandal from his days as the assistant coach of the Ohio State University wrestling team in the 80s and early 90s. It’s been mostly ignored because reporters see it as old news. There was a scandal but it didn’t really go anywhere, the thinking goes. Old news, nothing to see here. But that doesn’t make any sense if you know the details.

First, here’s the short version.

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Today’s Running of the House Normies Gets Underway

Posted on by Josh Marshall

Yesterday we noted that the latest GOP Speaker wannabe, Jim Jordan and his allies have shifted to mobilizing base MAGA supporters against the substantial number of holdouts who have either claimed they won’t vote for Jordan on the floor of the House or claim they will never vote for him. This morning Jordan seems to be making substantial headway. One key Republican holdout, Mike Rogers of Alabama, now says he’s on board. So does Ken Calvert, who represents a swing district in California.

Continue reading “Today’s Running of the House Normies Gets Underway” →

Jim Jordan Is Trying To Bully His Way To The Speakership

Posted on by David Kurtz

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

No More Mister Nice Guy?

The House GOP left DC last week without electing a speaker. They return this evening with just as much chaos and turmoil, and no clear path to electing Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) as the next speaker.

But rather than acknowledging the perils of his position or his failure to accumulate enough Republican votes for the speakership, Jordan is coming out swinging hard with the hopes of winning by sheer force. So much for consensus or negotiation. Jordan is going to try to bully his way to the top spot.

As the NYT reported over the weekend, Jordan is trying to activate the pro-Trump base to scare holdouts and opponents alike into voting for him. Punchbowl reported that Jordan is aiming for a floor vote Tuesday in which he’ll put all of his chips on the table with the aim of buffaloing waffling members into supporting him.

The dynamics of the House GOP have become so unhinged and unwieldy that there seems at least a faint prospect of some Republican members joining with Democrats to elect a new speaker in some sort of power-sharing arrangement. But let me put a heavy emphasis on “faint.” This still seems like a highly unlikely outcome, though it can’t be ruled out.

It’s hard for me not to assume that Jordan will find a way to pull it off, not because it’s a clear or obvious path to victory for him, but because the alternative for the GOP and the country seems absolutely insane: a speakerless House for a long stretch leading to political paralysis.

But that, my friends, is almost the definition of wishful thinking.

Never Forget …

Former Speaker Denny Hastert already broke the glass ceiling for sexually abusive ex-wrestling coaches. Jim Jordan is accused of ignoring abuse in the Ohio State wrestling program when he was an assistant coach, not participating in it. But it’s all worth another look:

  • Sports Illustrated: Jim Jordan Speaker Candidacy Roils Ohio State Wrestling Community
  • A Jordan ally is asked to address the allegations:

Illinois Boy Brutally Slain In Anti-Muslim Violence

A 6-year-old Palestinian American boy in Illinois died Saturday after being stabbed 26 times with a serrated military-style knife, allegedly by his 71-year-old landlord, in what police say was an anti-Muslim hate crime.

The boy’s mother was stabbed a dozen times and remains hospitalized in serious condition. The landlord was charged with state-level hate crimes, first-degree murder, attempted first-degree murder, and aggravated battery with a deadly weapon.

President Biden said he was “shocked and sickened” by the attack and deplored Islamophobia.

Israel-Gaza Watch

  • The Israeli bombardment of Gaza continues, with the death toll in retaliatory strikes since Oct. 7 rising to 2,750, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.
  • The death toll in Israel from the Hamas attack stands at more than 1,400 people. A total of 290 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the fighting.
  • Israel now says that number of hostages held by Hamas stands at 199.
  • Thirty Americans have been killed in the violence, and 13 remain unaccounted for, the State Department said Sunday.
  • Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken returned to Tel Aviv Monday
  • Blinken promised Sunday that the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt would be opened to allow humanitarian relief through, but as of midday Monday the border crossing remained closed.
  • National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday that Israel has turned water on to part of Gaza, but on Monday Gaza’s Interior Ministry said there remains no water.
  • Biden: Israeli reoccupation of Gaza would be a “big mistake.”

Busy Day Ahead

  • Jan. 6 case: U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan holds a hearing at 10 a.m. ET in federal court in DC on whether to impose a limited gag order on former President Trump in his Jan. 6 case.
  • Georgia RICO case: The judge holds a hearing Monday on the jury questionnaire to be used in the trial of Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell. The jury pool is expected to report to court on Friday, with jury selection set to start next Monday.
  • NY fraud case: The NY state civil fraud case against Trump, his two adult sons and some of his business entities enters day 10 today.

Rudy G Just Keeps On Losing

The federal judge overseeing the defamation lawsuit against Rudy Giuliani by Georgia election workers Shaye Moss and Ruby Freeman ordered Friday that the jury in the upcoming trial could draw a whole series of negative inferences against Giuliani for his failure to have complied with discovery demands.

What Egypt Allegedly Wanted From Menendez

Reporting by TPM’s Josh Kovensky suggests that the claims of American roller skater April Corley, strafed by the Egyptian military in 2015, really are at the center of the case against Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ).

Jeff Landry Wins Louisiana Governorship

Louisiana flips from a moderate Democratic governor to a dyed-in-the-wool, far-right, Trump-endorsed MAGA governor in the form of Jeff Landry, who won an outright majority in the state’s jungle primary Saturday.

2024 Ephemera

  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) played xenophobia card, coming out against accepting refugees from Gaza into the United States: “If you look at how they behave, not all of them are Hamas, but they are all antisemitic.” 
  • The liberal advocacy group Climate Power is planning an $80 million ad campaign to tout Biden’s record on the environment.
  • Pence campaign is saddled with $620,000 in debt.

Sums It All Up

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A Few Updates – House Debacle; US Show of Force; Dismal Forensics

Posted on by Josh Marshall

1 … The US House

In the House GOP battle to seat a new Speaker we have a critical development, which captures or perhaps recapitulates the nature of the battle itself. About 5% of the caucus unseated Kevin McCarthy. Then Steve Scalise won the caucus vote to be Speaker. But a good couple dozen members still wouldn’t vote for him and he quickly dropped out. Then Jim Jordan won the vote and faced the identical problem. But Jordan, his recent establishment turn notwithstanding, is of the Trumpist right. So his supporters are taking a different tack. As the Times reports they’re mobilizing a base-focused press campaign, enlisting right wing media and activists, publishing ‘hit lists’ of recalcitrant members’ phone numbers, threatening primary campaigns. As Trumpist capo Russell T. Vought puts it to the Times, with a lot of history to back him up, the ‘moderates’ will fold because they’re soft. They simply don’t have it in them to deny Jordan on the floor of the House the way Jordan’s strongest allies were ready to do it with McCarthy and Scalise.

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SCOTUS Is Helping The Christian Right Undermine The Force Of Anti-Discrimination Law

Posted on by Nicole LaFond

This article is part of TPM Cafe, TPM’s home for opinion and news analysis. It was originally published at The Conversation.

When the Supreme Court ruled in 303 Creative v. Elenis in 2023 that a businessperson could not be compelled to create art that violates their religious beliefs – specifically, a wedding website for a same-sex ceremony – supporters of the decision celebrated it as a victory for freedom of religion and expression.

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