What To Make of the Polls

This is a post not so much focused on the news of the moment but one in response to a question I get a lot. It’s also a post I’ve wanted to do because I’ll be able to refer back to it as we go forward through the final sprint of the campaign. The question is a really basic one: Given what happened in 2016 and 2020, how much confidence can we have that the current polls are giving us an accurate or realistic picture of the current campaign?

Let me deal briefly with what are important but mostly obvious caveats. Polls, or really poll averages, are almost never exactly right and not infrequently they suffer from systemic error. So can we rely on them? No. That would be silly. Most of the time they are fairly accurate predictors of election outcomes. But in close races, a “normal” polling miss of a point or two can change the result. But what people who ask me this question are really asking is whether we should expect that polls are underestimating Trump’s strength as they did in 2016 and 2020.

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The Ravages Of QAnon Brain Worms In The Real World

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Must Watch

I want to bring your attention today to a tremendous bit of investigative reporting from the indefatigable Phil Williams of NewsChannel 5 in Nashville.

At its heart, the story is about what happens when QAnon conspiracy theories infect the upper ranks of local law enforcement.

The case study Williams uncovers is in Millersville, Tennessee, just north of Nashville, where the police chief (who is also the interim city manager) and assistant police chief have taken to far right podcasts to advance some of the most outlandish QAnon ravings, including Pizzagate.

They claim the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation has cut them off from accessing law enforcement search tools while TBI conducts an audit of the Millersville police department. Williams’ reporting suggests TBI does have some concerns about the department, but TBI wouldn’t comment.

But none of my summary fully captures the many layers of Williams’ extensive long-running investigation, like this gem of line: “Then, there’s the child sex predator sting run by Millersville with a group of MAGA activists — a sting also now being investigated by the TBI.” Oh, boy.

As Williams himself said: “I have never seen anything like this.”

Spot The Racism

Could Get Ugly In Georgia Again

TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: What To Know About the MAGA-Run Georgia Board Trying to Delay Election Certification 

By The Numbers

  • Big Swing: The latest update to the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey shows Kamala Harris leading or tied with Donald Trump in all but one of the seven swing states surveyed. Harris leads Trump 48%-47% in the seven states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI) combined. In the last iteration of the survey, in May, Trump was ahead of or tied with Biden in all seven states and led by three points overall.
  • One Data Point: More Republicans than Democrats were registering to vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina all year until Kamala Harris entered the race, when the advantage flipped and Democratic registrations began outpacing Republican ones.
  • Non-College-Educated Whites: The internals of the latest NYT/Siena poll show Trump’s margin among non-college-educated whites in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have shrunk from +25 against Biden to +14 against Harris:

2024 Ephemera

  • MN-05: Squad member Ilhan Omar (D-MN) won her primary.
  • WI-Sen: As expected, Eric Hovde won the GOP primary, setting up a general election race against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).
  • Politico: Biden harbors lingering frustration at Pelosi, Obama, Schumer

Tracking The Trump Campaign Hack

  • Good question: Why newsrooms haven’t published leaked Trump campaign documents
  • WaPo: Suspected Iranian hacks are latest round of U.S. election interference
  • Marcy Wheeler: After Serving as a Pawn for Russia, Roger Stone Became a Pawn of Iran

Boom

A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has disqualified attorney Stefanie Lambert from continuing to represent former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne in Dominion Voting System’s massive civil lawsuit over being falsely implicated in the 2020 Big Lie.

Lambert, who is facing criminal charges in Michigan for illegally accessing voting machines after the 2020 election, repeatedly disclosed discovery information in the Dominion case to outside parties in violation of court rules and orders, the judge found.

“Lambert’s repeated misconduct raises the serious concern that she became involved in this litigation for the sheer purpose of gaining access to and publicly sharing Dominion’s protected discovery,” U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila A. Upadhyaya wrote.

Quote Of The Day

(Trump)’s unfit to serve, he can’t get anywhere near the White House. But if somehow they win, they can actually appoint two or three more justices. And they’re going to be, like, in the Aileen Cannon, they don’t follow any precedent, they’re just going to do Trump’s bidding type. And they’re going to be young, and they’re going to be on that bench for 30 or 40 years.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, speaking at a private fundraising event in Los Angeles

‘I Will Not Be Intimidated’

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson was the victim of two swatting attacks at her Detroit home, one Saturday and another Monday, she revealed this week.

Coda To The Persecution Of Indiana Abortion Doc

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita has dismissed his lawsuit accusing the state’s largest hospital system of violating patient privacy laws when Dr. Caitlin Bernard told a newspaper that a 10-year-old Ohio girl had traveled to Indiana for an abortion.

For Your Radar

Jury selection in the federal criminal trial of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) is set to begin Sept. 9.

The Trump Grift-Industrial Complex

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Scenes the from Wildfires near Athens, Greece

Since Sunday, Greece has been battling forest fires that started during a period of hot and dry weather in the region. Neighborhoods in the outskirts north of Athens have been the most affected and thousands of residents have been evacuated. Many homes and structures have burned down and smoke has engulfed the ancient capital city. Both residents and tourists tried to go about their normal days as firefighters and volunteers fought to control the blaze.

Sanders Calls Out Trump’s New Crowd Size Lies For What They Are: A Foundation For Election Denialism

My colleague, TPM reporter Khaya Himmelman, and I have been very focused over the last several months on covering moments when Donald Trump and his allies tell us how they are going to behave in the fall if Trump loses — or if he appears to be losing in states that would be key to his reelection bid. He’s abiding by the same playbook he followed in 2020, when he laid the rhetorical groundwork for Stop the Steal months before Election Day. It was picked up by only those who were listening. We were, and are, listening. We can see him doing the same thing in real time in 2024.

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What We Are, And What We’re Not

Back when a good portion of TPM’s current staff was first getting into journalism in the mid-2000s, there was this idea that the New York Times and the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal were all the things of the past; that world was dying, and whatever was to come next, we were told, was in the process of being born. What would it be? You probably remember some of that era. There was a rush toward digital media startups, with investors pouring money into new outlets.

Now, many of them are gone.

TPM predated this frenzy by a little, and has outlasted it. And our community support is a big part of why we’re still around.

The hope for some in those years was that something new would win the attention of the news-reading audience that the newspapers once enjoyed, and this new thing would be staffed by journalists. That something new, however, did not turn out to be a news outlet, and did not turn out to be staffed by journalists. It was, unfortunately, social media apps.

The reason why many of the digital-native outlets of the aughts and 2010s are now gone or seriously diminished is because people didn’t develop a loyalty to any particular one of these startups, they developed a loyalty to the platforms that delivered those stories and the communities on those platforms: once Facebook, then Twitter, now a wide array of different Twitter-like successors and streaming platforms such as YouTube and Twitch. The news first reported by professional journalists ends up sliced and diced and resurfaced and echoed in some form across billions of feeds on innumerable platforms, some of which you and I have likely never heard of. With the time of easy money gone, we see some news outlets continuing to try and squeeze out the dregs from investors, promising novel newsroom uses of AI or a supposedly savvy editorial position that tells the money-havers exactly what they want to hear, regardless of its grounding in reality.

TPM, fortunately, is different, and it is why we’ve been able to survive as long as we have. We know we’re not going to change the news industry, and we don’t need to. We rely on you, our community of readers. We’re not making some grab for the attention of the social media-scrolling masses. Sure, we’ll take it, but we don’t need it. We have something fairly unique here: a loyal readership and a gradually growing group of members with whom we are deeply connected.

This is why we come to you periodically and ask you to support us. It’s that time now, so please, if you have the resources to do so, we hope you will contribute.

What you get in return is not a tote bag, and not (or not just) a warm fuzzy feeling for having supported us and made us happy. We’re a news outlet doing something unique: community based, community sponsored national political journalism. We are not funded by Wall Street or Silicon Valley, and we do not need to come up with contrivances to keep those masters of the universe sending us their cash. We are funded by you, the people who read us and find us valuable. It’s great! We are proud to be part of this experiment, one that continues year after year.

Harris’ Campaign Is Working—Get Used to It

I’m reading through a Puck newsletter, sent out under the heading “The Vibes Election.” Some of this is similar to what I discussed in yesterday’s Backchannel — Happy v. Mad, etc. But most of it zeroes in on the idea that Harris’ campaign is all vibes and no substance, a sugar high, something that can’t last. Will it be enough to carry her to Election Day? Here’s one snippet.

Put another way: Vibes, baby! Harris has not outlined any specific economic agenda, speaking only in generic terms about corporate greed, standing with labor unions, protecting Social Security and Obamacare, and fighting for the middle class. She is framing the election simply as “the choice about what direction this country will go in”—conveying an agreeable set of center-left values against Trump rather than a 10-point plan for this or a white paper for that.

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Roger Stone Was Phished Before Trump Campaign Hack-and-Dump

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

The Weakest Link?

A number of new developments since yesterday in the hack-and-dump attack on the Trump campaign, but none stands out with as much color and irony as the cameo by longtime Trump acolyte Roger Stone.

Stone was apparently the victim of a phishing attack, according to multiple news outlets, citing anonymous investigators. Stone also said so himself, for what that’s worth.

As CNN described it:

The hackers used access to Stone’s email account to try to break into the account of a senior Trump campaign official as part of a persistent effort to access campaign networks, one of the sources said. The hacking incident, which occurred in June, set off a scramble in the Trump campaign, the FBI and Microsoft, which spotted the intrusion attempts, to contain the incident and to determine if there was a broader cyber threat from Iran.

The implication of the day’s reporting was that Stone was the weak link point of entry for the hack-and-dump, but I want to be clear that no one as far as I can tell has yet confirmed that the attack on Stone directly led to the hack-and-dump operation against the Trump campaign.

Stone told the NYT that both his Hotmail (old school!) and his Gmail accounts were compromised. Stone said he was first contacted by Microsoft a few months ago, and then a few weeks later by the FBI. Using Stone, who was convicted in the Mueller investigation then later corruptly pardoned by President Trump only to turn up again in the thick of Jan. 6, to exploit access to the Trump campaign is a scriptwriter’s fantasy plot twist.

Among the other developments:

  • The FBI publicly confirmed it is investigating the hack-and-dump operation (though it didn’t name Trump), apparently as part of a larger investigation.
  • The Biden-Harris campaign was also reportedly targeted:

At least three staffers on the Biden-Harris campaign were targeted with so-called spear-phishing emails intended to trick recipients into clicking on seemingly legitimate links or files in a bid to gain access to their internal communications, the person said, adding that the attempts took place before President Biden stepped aside for re-election and was succeeded by Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. The hacking attempts were apparently unsuccessful, the person said.

  • The FBI briefed the Biden-Harris campaign in June “about Iranian hackers targeting that campaign,” CNN reported, citing an anonymous source.
  • Iran remains a prime suspect in the hack, but the U.S. government hasn’t yet pointed the finger at Iran. It’s reportedly less clear whether Iran was involved in the dump.
  • “[I]nvestigators anticipate further attempts by the hackers to disseminate other materials,” the NYT reported.

It remains to be seen if the documents already confirmed to have been dumped with Politico, the NYT, and WaPo will yield more news stories beyond the one Politico published Saturday.

Tina Peters Convicted

Former Mesa County, Colorado clerk Tina Peters was convicted by a jury in state court of tampering with voting machines that were under her control in the aftermath of the 2020 election – part of her now-notorious effort to prove elements of Donald Trump’s Big Lie.

The jury deliberated for nearly five hours before convicting Peters on seven of the 10 counts against her. The top two bulleted items are felonies:

  • three counts of attempting to influence a public servant;
  • one count of conspiracy to commit criminal impersonation;
  • first-degree official misconduct;
  • violation of duty; and
  • failure to comply with an order from the Secretary of State.

Sentencing is set for Oct. 3, and she could face real prison time. It’s a long way from August 2021, when the weird case first burst into public view.

Musk And Trump Are Made For Each Other

Let’s begin by acknowledging the alarming tableau of the world’s richest man inserting himself forcefully into the presidential campaign of a would-be authoritarian and co-opting his potent global information platform to do so.

As ominous as that sounds, it is also buffoonish – and there’s no reason for those two things to be mutually exclusive.

Last evening’s Elon Musk interview with Donald Trump on the occasion of his return to X/Twitter faced the same kind of comical technical snafus that bedeviled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign launch with Musk.

Musk blamed a denial of service attack, which is to say malign outside actors trying to shut down the Trump interview. But The Verge throws cold water on that claim, reporting:

The rest of X appears to be working normally, however, and a source at the company confirmed to The Verge that there wasn’t actually a denial-of-service attack. Another X staffer said there was a “99 percent” chance Elon was lying about an attack.

Nothing that was said (or mumbled) rose to the same level of newsworthiness as the grotesque symbolism of the moment.

Good Luck With That One

Donald Trump has taken the first step toward suing the Justice Department over the Mar-a-Lago raid, a preposterous claim that is unlikely to succeed.

2024 Ephemera

  • A pro-Trump super PAC is launching a $100 million TV ad buy between now and Labor Day in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
  • In a decision that, if upheld, would keep Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., off the presidential ballot in New York and possibly jeopardize his ballot access in other states, a New York state judge ruled that Kennedy falsely claimed to be a resident there when in fact he lives in California.
  • Kamala Harris’ popularity “has driven a large correction in economic sentiment,” Brian Beutler notes, which requires some rethinking of the lessons of the past three years.

Abortion Watch

  • TPM’s Kate Riga: SCOTUS Didn’t Go Nuclear On Abortion In 2024. It’ll Have Plenty Of Options To In 2025
  • Women file complaints with HHS claiming that two Texas hospitals denied them abortions for ectopic pregnancies.
  • AP: “More than 100 pregnant women in medical distress who sought help from emergency rooms were turned away or negligently treated since 2022, an Associated Press analysis of federal hospital investigations found.”

No Other Way Out

Lawfare’s Natalie Orpett, on Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s disastrous decision to revoke the plea agreements entered into with the accused 9/11 plotters:

What makes Secretary Austin’s order so destructive is that guilty pleas are the only way out. They represent the sole possibility for 9/11 families to see some semblance of the public reckoning a trial is meant to provide. The defense, the prosecutors, and the convening authority all recognize this. That’s why they made these deals. But Austin chose to ignore this reality—just the latest in a long tradition of political leaders determined to avoid the choices necessary to bring this case to an end.   

Words To Live By

I keep referring back to a comment that basketball great Kevin Durant made to the international media at the Paris Olympics: “A lot of bullshit happens in our country. But a lot of great things happen, too.” Indeed.

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What To Know About the MAGA-Run Georgia Board Trying to Delay Election Certification 

The Republican-controlled Georgia State Election Board approved a rule last week, only a few months shy of the presidential election, giving county officials new authority over election certification — and potentially giving the board the ability to delay certification of election results in a state that served as a hotbed for conspiracy theories pushed by Donald Trump himself in 2020.

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SCOTUS Didn’t Go Nuclear On Abortion In 2024. It’ll Have Plenty Of Options To In 2025

The Supreme Court punted on the major abortion cases it heard during the term that ended last month. And while the Court’s inaction was initially celebrated, it means we head into the 2024 election with some of the biggest threats to the procedure delayed, but not permanently denied. 

One case is all but certain to return; others have been steadily working their way up the federal judiciary in the meantime. 

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