They probably would have gotten to it on their own. But I think TPM Reader NR is right about the trajectory here.
There’s an added component to your piece today on the media’s call for Harris to do interviews and put forward policies — the demand was a Republican demand first, and the media picked it up. Reporters didn’t come to this in some collective epiphany that they wanted more from the Harris campaign, but instead heard Trump and Vance and their surrogates claiming Harrs was too weak or unprepared or stupid to handle a presser. It is, once again, the media being led around by the right wing on what’s important and not important.
JD Vance is coming into focus as a living breathing embodiment of the caricature of the Republican man as obsessed with controlling women’s bodies and eager to reduce the complexities of human relations to late-night-dorm-room-debate levels of sophistication. Heavy on bombast, light on normal. The more sweeping and reductive the assertions, the better!
The latest example is a resurfaced podcast interview of Vance from 2020, before he ran for U.S. Senate in 2022. In fairness, it’s the host, not Vance, saying the weirdest stuff. But Vance doesn’t argue or pushback, let alone bail on the interview. He actually seems to agree with some of the more whackadoodle assertions by the interviewer and uses them to launch into a screed against neo-liberalism predicated on the “transgressiveness” of his Indian mother-in-law showing up to help with his and his wife’s newborn:
NEW VANCE AUDIO: In an interview from 2020, JD Vance agrees with a podcast host who says having grandmothers help raise children is “the whole purpose of the postmenopausal female.”
He also agrees when the host says grandparents helping raise children is a "weird, unadvertised… pic.twitter.com/W4KwHfZyw2
Fortunately for Vance, post-menopausal women aren’t really in play in this election. I joke.
Trump’s Front Porch Candidacy
Warren G. Harding and his wife Florence on the front porch of the Harding house in Marion, Ohio, from which Harding conducted his successful campaign for the Presidency. (Photo by Library of Congress/Corbis/VCG via Getty Images)
For the second week in a row, Donald Trump has summoned reporters to one of his properties to hold a press conference. Today’s audience with the media will be at his club in Bedminster, NJ.
Trump was on the road in North Carolina yesterday, so he’s not ensconced like a late 19th century pol on his Ohio porch greeting visitors (or like the photo above of the 1920 campaign of Warren Harding, our previously most corrupt president, with due respect to Tricky Dick). But his campaign schedule has been awfully light, and he’s holding pressers in Florida and New Jersey, two states very much not in play.
There’s a combination of factors driving him toward these regular pressers:
It’s a flex: You come to me.
It’s attention-seeking: He’s up against Kamala Harris, who has entered the zeitgeist.
It’s a contrast: I’ll do pressers unlike Harris.
It’s also an effort to drive the news agenda, since his campaign rallies can’t guarantee him uninterrupted national TV time the way they used to. Perhaps his pressers shouldn’t be either, especially when reporters’ questions aren’t audible like last week’s presser.
2024 Ephemera
The Harris campaign is rushing out a $90 million TV ad buy in seven battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – in the coming weeks to introduce her to voters.
NYT: When Will They Speak Again? Once Close, Biden and Pelosi Are at Odds.
Politico: A Florida referendum is putting Trump in a bind on abortion
By The Numbers
Quinnipiac University poll: Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump 48%-45% among likely voters in Pennsylvania. This is Quinnipiac first poll of likely voters in the state this cycle.
Pew Research Center: Harris holds a 46%-45% lead over Donald Trump among registered voters nationally, a flip from a month ago when the same poll gave Trump a 44%-40% lead over President Biden.
NV-Sen: The Cook Political Report has moved the race from toss-up to leans Democrat after its latest polling shows Sen. Jacky Rosen with a whopping 18-point lead (probably an outlier).
Putting A Thumb Heavily On The Scale
To the dismay of abortion rights advocates, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the informational pamphlet sent to all voters about the proposed state constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights can refer to an embryo or fetus as an “unborn human being.”
The ruling Wednesday ratified language that Republican lawmakers had come up with, over the objections of supporters of the constitutional amendment who argued that the language was neither impartial nor objective. Ya think?
Trump Campaign Hack Watch
In his first public comments on the hack of his campaign, Donald Trump semi-declined to say what the FBI has told him about who is responsible: “I don’t want to say exactly, but it was Iran.”
Brian Beutler: Trump Email Hack Is A Moment Of Reckoning For Him—Or The News Media
Google issued a new report confirming some of the reporting on Iran’s efforts to penetrate both presidential campaigns, seeming to refer to Roger Stone but not naming him. Specifically, Google focused on APT42, which it describes as an “Iranian government-backed threat actor:
In May and June, APT42 targets included the personal email accounts of roughly a dozen individuals affiliated with President Biden and with former President Trump, including current and former officials in the U.S. government and individuals associated with the respective campaigns. We blocked numerous APT42 attempts to log in to the personal email accounts of targeted individuals. …
We observed that the group successfully gained access to the personal Gmail account of a high-profile political consultant. …
Today, [Google] continues to observe unsuccessful attempts from APT42 to compromise the personal accounts of individuals affiliated with President Biden, Vice President Harris and former President Trump, including current and former government officials and individuals associated with the campaigns.
Keeping An Eye On This
A military judge has set an Aug. 20 deadline for both sides to brief him on whether Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had the authority to revoke the plea bargains reached with the 9/11 defendants.
Must Read
AT SEA – SEPTEMBER 28: In this Handout Photo provided by Swedish Coast Guard, the release of gas emanating from a leak on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea on September 28, 2022 in At Sea. A fourth leak has been detected in the undersea gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe, after explosions were reported earlier this week in suspected sabotage. (Photo by Swedish Coast Guard via Getty Images)
WSJ: A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage
TPM Reader KJ sent me this in response to yesterday’s Backchannel. At first I thought these might be made up headlines. But they’re each real. I linked them.
It’s fun to split screen this email with today’s headlines:
I’ve come at this debate in my head from a bunch different directions over the last few days. I gave my overarching view in yesterday’s Backchannel. But there are so many different dimensions to it. Kate and I knocked several of them around in today’s podcast. I actually got in a minor spat today with a reporter who I’d dinged for an article description which presented Harris as a sort mystery candidate verging on a Manchurian Candidate, with unknown views and barely detailed ambitions. Are we kidding with all of this?
Donald Trump will not give up his Joe Biden sympathy act.
During nearly every public event since President Biden dropped out and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has feigned outrage about Biden’s predicament, and has suggested repeatedly that he thinks the “very angry” President will use the Democratic National Convention next week to try to force his way back into the race.
Thanks for taking a moment to read this post. We are now at a critical stage in our annual TPM Journalism Fund drive. It’s critical that we hit our goal this year which is to raise $500,000 to prepare TPM for what comes next. We’re in the final lap. Late yesterday we surpassed $400,000, which is simply incredible. We’re now at just over $404,000$409,000$415,000 $418,000$420,000 $423,000. But we really need to reach that goal or at least get as close as we possibly can. I’m pumped because the milestone last night means we now have the wind at our back. The Journalism Fund is the critical piece of the puzzle that allows TPM to thrive while virtually all of our peers have retrenched, announced layoffs or shuttered entirely. We rely on you, our readers and members. And again and again you’ve been there for us.
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This is a post not so much focused on the news of the moment but one in response to a question I get a lot. It’s also a post I’ve wanted to do because I’ll be able to refer back to it as we go forward through the final sprint of the campaign. The question is a really basic one: Given what happened in 2016 and 2020, how much confidence can we have that the current polls are giving us an accurate or realistic picture of the current campaign?
Let me deal briefly with what are important but mostly obvious caveats. Polls, or really poll averages, are almost never exactly right and not infrequently they suffer from systemic error. So can we rely on them? No. That would be silly. Most of the time they are fairly accurate predictors of election outcomes. But in close races, a “normal” polling miss of a point or two can change the result. But what people who ask me this question are really asking is whether we should expect that polls are underestimating Trump’s strength as they did in 2016 and 2020.
At its heart, the story is about what happens when QAnon conspiracy theories infect the upper ranks of local law enforcement.
The case study Williams uncovers is in Millersville, Tennessee, just north of Nashville, where the police chief (who is also the interim city manager) and assistant police chief have taken to far right podcasts to advance some of the most outlandish QAnon ravings, including Pizzagate.
They claim the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation has cut them off from accessing law enforcement search tools while TBI conducts an audit of the Millersville police department. Williams’ reporting suggests TBI does have some concerns about the department, but TBI wouldn’t comment.
But none of my summary fully captures the many layers of Williams’ extensive long-running investigation, like this gem of line: “Then, there’s the child sex predator sting run by Millersville with a group of MAGA activists — a sting also now being investigated by the TBI.” Oh, boy.
As Williams himself said: “I have never seen anything like this.”
MUST WATCH: My investigation of the conspiracy cops in Millersville, Tennessee, gets even stranger. Asked about the reason for my investigation of his department, the chief says: "The only thing I can think is: you are a pedophile or you are covering for somebody that is." https://t.co/TPR9QkuLGbpic.twitter.com/iEuBDrB61u
TPM’s Khaya Himmelman: What To Know About the MAGA-Run Georgia Board Trying to Delay Election Certification
By The Numbers
Big Swing: The latest update to the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey shows Kamala Harris leading or tied with Donald Trump in all but one of the seven swing states surveyed. Harris leads Trump 48%-47% in the seven states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI) combined. In the last iteration of the survey, in May, Trump was ahead of or tied with Biden in all seven states and led by three points overall.
One Data Point: More Republicans than Democrats were registering to vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina all year until Kamala Harris entered the race, when the advantage flipped and Democratic registrations began outpacing Republican ones.
Non-College-Educated Whites: The internals of the latest NYT/Siena poll show Trump’s margin among non-college-educated whites in the Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have shrunk from +25 against Biden to +14 against Harris:
Harry Enten on Non-College White Voters: Donald Trump still leads, but that margin has shrunk significantly, 25 points back in May, it is now 14 points here in August, nearly been sliced by half. pic.twitter.com/3eE0zgIly9
MN-05: Squad member Ilhan Omar (D-MN) won her primary.
WI-Sen: As expected, Eric Hovde won the GOP primary, setting up a general election race against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).
Politico: Biden harbors lingering frustration at Pelosi, Obama, Schumer
Tracking The Trump Campaign Hack
Good question: Why newsrooms haven’t published leaked Trump campaign documents
WaPo: Suspected Iranian hacks are latest round of U.S. election interference
Marcy Wheeler: After Serving as a Pawn for Russia, Roger Stone Became a Pawn of Iran
Boom
A federal magistrate judge in Washington, D.C., has disqualified attorney Stefanie Lambert from continuing to represent former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne in Dominion Voting System’s massive civil lawsuit over being falsely implicated in the 2020 Big Lie.
Lambert, who is facing criminal charges in Michigan for illegally accessing voting machines after the 2020 election, repeatedly disclosed discovery information in the Dominion case to outside parties in violation of court rules and orders, the judge found.
“Lambert’s repeated misconduct raises the serious concern that she became involved in this litigation for the sheer purpose of gaining access to and publicly sharing Dominion’s protected discovery,” U.S. Magistrate Judge Moxila A. Upadhyaya wrote.
Quote Of The Day
(Trump)’s unfit to serve, he can’t get anywhere near the White House. But if somehow they win, they can actually appoint two or three more justices. And they’re going to be, like, in the Aileen Cannon, they don’t follow any precedent, they’re just going to do Trump’s bidding type. And they’re going to be young, and they’re going to be on that bench for 30 or 40 years.
Second gentleman Doug Emhoff, speaking at a private fundraising event in Los Angeles
Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita has dismissed his lawsuit accusing the state’s largest hospital system of violating patient privacy laws when Dr. Caitlin Bernard told a newspaper that a 10-year-old Ohio girl had traveled to Indiana for an abortion.
For Your Radar
Jury selection in the federal criminal trial of former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) is set to begin Sept. 9.
We’re currently just $525 short of $400,000 raised in this year’s TPM Journalism Fund drive. That’s 4/5ths of the way toward our goal. Can you take a moment to contribute this evening and help us reach this big milestone? Just click right here and thank you so much.
Since Sunday, Greece has been battling forest fires that started during a period of hot and dry weather in the region. Neighborhoods in the outskirts north of Athens have been the most affected and thousands of residents have been evacuated. Many homes and structures have burned down and smoke has engulfed the ancient capital city. Both residents and tourists tried to go about their normal days as firefighters and volunteers fought to control the blaze.
Residents gather to watch the glow of a fire burning north of Athens
Residents stand along a street as a wildfire burns in a hillside in Varnavas, north of Athens, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Smoke from wildfires covers the outskirts of Athens, Greece
Smoke billows from behind Acropolis Hill as a wildfire rages on the outskirts of Athens on August 11, 2024. (Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)
Smoke rises over the Parthenon as fires rage outside Athens
Smoke rises over the Parthenon during a wildfire near Athens, Greece, on August 12, 2024. (Photo by Costas Baltas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Residents of Athens walk smoky streets
Two women stand in a smoky street in Penteli, a municipality in the northern Athens region. (Photo by Socrates Baltagiannis/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Helecopters drop water to battle the wildfire
A helicopter drops a load of water over houses during a wildfire in Varnavas, north of Athens, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Volunteers rescue dogs from neighborhoods north of Athens as the fires approach
Volunteers rescue dogs during a wildfire in Varnavas, north of Athens, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by Angelos TZORTZINIS / AFP) (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Acropolis Hill as a wildfire rages on the outskirts of Athens
(Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)
A house burns in northern Athens
A house burns during a wildfire in Varnavas, north of Athens, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Another house burns north of Athens
(Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Volunteers spray water on a burning house
A volunteer sprays water over a house burning during a wildfire in Varnavas, north of Athens, on August 11, 2024 (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
A house burns in Varnava, north of Athens
A house burns as a wildfire burns at the village of Varnava, north of Athens, Greece, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by Costas Baltas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Another house burns
A house burns during a wildfire at the village of Varnava north of Athens, Greece, on August 11, 2024. (Photo by Costas Baltas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Parthenon Temple atop the Acropolis Hill in a smoke cloud
The Parthenon Temple atop the Acropolis Hill in a smoke cloud from a wildfire, in Athens on August 12, 2024. (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Satellite image of wildfires near Athens, Greece
Satellite view of the wildfire North Of Athens, Greece. Imaged 12 August 2024. (Photo by Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2024)
Firefighters continue extinguishing efforts near Athens, Greece
Firefighters spray water to trees as extinguishing efforts continue against a wildfire in Dione near Athens, Greece, on August 12, 2024. (Photo by Costas Baltas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Burnt houses in the aftermath of the wildfire
This photograph shows a view of a burnt houses following a wildfire that hit the north-eastern suburbs of Athens, near Penteli, suburb of Athens, on August 13, 2024. (Photo by ANGELOS TZORTZINIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Tourists continue to take photos as the smoke cloud grows over Athens
(Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)
A firefighter attempts to extinguish a large fire
A firefighter extinguishes a large fire just a few kilometers northeast of the Greek capital. Due to strong winds, there is still no end in sight. The government has now asked the EU for support. Photo: Socrates Baltagiannis/dpa (Photo by Socrates Baltagiannis/picture alliance via Getty Images)
A statue remains in a burnt structure near Athens
A view from the area where damaged occured due to a fire that started in Varnavas, East Attica, near the Greek capital Athens on August 13, 2024. The fire quickly spread due to strong winds, causing significant damage to numerous homes and businesses. (Photo by Ayhan Mehmet/Anadolu via Getty Images)
My colleague, TPM reporter Khaya Himmelman, and I have been very focused over the last several months on covering moments when Donald Trump and his allies tell us how they are going to behave in the fall if Trump loses — or if he appears to be losing in states that would be key to his reelection bid. He’s abiding by the same playbook he followed in 2020, when he laid the rhetorical groundwork for Stop the Steal months before Election Day. It was picked up by only those who were listening. We were, and are, listening. We can see him doing the same thing in real time in 2024.
