It’s sitting right there in front of us. But it’s still worth noting. The political stories of the moment are heavily geared to the long-tail effects of Donald Trump’s antic and ego-driven escapades: the decision to make the Reflecting Pool “American flag blue”; the eagerness to get a plane as a present (which he could take home with him after his presidency) from the royal family of Qatar. There are countless examples. In each case, the initial driver is the president’s personal cupidity and grandiosity, things which have no relation to any aspect of public policy or really any public support. They begin unknown and pretty quickly end up unpopular. He does them because he can, with the Supreme Court having removed basically all of the immediate brakes on a president’s power. But those initials gambits — the hunger for gifts and cash prizes — lead to bad news stories, legal impediments, or often technological snafus. Those in turn lead to embarrassment, anger, outbursts which repeat the process of bad news stories, legal impediments or technological snafus.
Trump Uses Press Corps as Decoy to Evade Iran Threat
Air Force None
By now, you’ve likely ingested many of the details from the bombshell Washinton Post report on the elaborate security operation and public misinformation campaign to spirit President Trump out of Ankara, Turkey, following last month’s NATO summit in order to avoid a credible threat to his life from Iran.
The entire ruse is remarkable by the historic standards of security theater and continuity of government protocols that have hovered over our political consciousness since the peak tensions of the Cold War nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union.
Especially striking is that White House staff and the press pool who remained on the older model Air Force One that everyone thought Trump was aboard ended up serving as decoys — sitting ducks for whatever scheme Iran had conjured up but ultimately failed in or decided not to execute.
The image we conjure in our minds of Trump boarding Air Force One on one side of the plane before secretly exiting the other side into a waiting catering truck is indelible. But I’m just as taken by what happened after Trump’s secret flight landed in the U.K.
Once on the ground, Trump had to be secretly returned to the older Air Force One, then make a show of disembarking from it before boarding the new Qatari Force One that he took across the Atlantic to Joint Base Andrews. As you may know, the Air Force One call sign only applies when the president is aboard the aircraft, but I’m taking some liberties with the term here for the sake of clarity.
“It’s not clear how Trump moved from the C-32A to the legacy Air Force One after landing,” the WaPo noted.
The NYT has a more robust account of this part of the operation: “Before that, unbeknown to reporters, Mr. Trump was brought by vehicle from the third plane that he had arrived on to the older Air Force One, boarded it through a different entrance and strode down the step from the upper left-side door as he would typically do, according to the U.S. official.”
Here is he pretending to have just flown in on the older Air Force One:

Here he is walking between the old and new Air Force One aircraft:

This entire episode would be notable in its own right, but the NYT’s subsequent reporting on the ostensible version of what happened — the old Air Force One was used because the new Qatari-gifted one lacked sufficient defense capabilities given the Iranian threat — gave rise to a leak investigation and highly controversial subpoenas to NYT reporters.
Those subpoenas have since been withdrawn, but it’s a bit of a mindfuck to try to piece together that related saga in light of this new information. Was the administration, for instance, agitated not just that the new Air Force One was being denigrated by the NYT’s reporting but that the NYT was onto the secret mission to extricate Trump from Turkey? We don’t know if the NYT had additional information on the ruse that it didn’t publish, though its followup to yesterday’s WaPo exclusive didn’t betray any previous unpublished knowledge of the operation.
The Corruption: Trump DOJ Edition
U.S. District Judge Nicholas Garaufis sharply criticized principal associate deputy attorney general Trent McCotter in dropping criminal fraud charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and several of his co-defendants.
Judge Garaufis largely (but not entirely) granted the Trump DOJ’s motion to dismiss the case, but, in a withering 47-page order, he shellacked political appointee McCotter for pushing the dismissal through without consultation with investigators:
On the current record, McCotter appears to have eschewed the professional opinions of innumerable officials from various federal offices and replaced them with his singular judgment. The fact that McCotter came to this decision largely in collaboration with defense counsel, and seemingly without input from the FBI and SEC agents who investigated the alleged misconduct, or the attorneys from the Department, SEC, and U.S. Attorney’s Office who brought the case, appears to be highly unusual.
Garaufis also flamed McCotter for claiming the indictment was the handiwork of a politicized Biden DOJ:
McCotter appears to be accusing officials across four different government offices of bringing a detailed 54-page, 5-count indictment out of spite. However, he has not provided a scintilla of evidence to suggest that the timing of the unsealing of the indictment, or the charging decisions, in this case was politically motivated. McCotter’s baseless assertion is unbecoming of his office.
The dismissal of the case against Adani, essentially a foreign bribery case of the kind that the Trump DOJ has de-emphasized pursuing, came after Adani retained Bob Giuffra and Jamie McDonald (who Trump later nominated as Manhattan U.S. attorney) of Sullivan & Cromwell (which is representing Trump personally in other matters). In a presentation to McCotter at the Justice Department, Giuffra reportedly said that Adani would be willing to invest $10 billion in the American economy if the charges were dropped, according to CBS News.
Trump DOJ Watch
- ICYMI: The Southern Poverty Law Center’s motion for vindictive prosecution was denied Friday by the trial judge, who declined to look past federal prosecutors in Alabama to Main Justice or to the White House in assessing improper motives for bringing the politicized case.
- Reflecting Pool: Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) will make an effort to extract information from the Trump DOJ about the charging decision in the since-dismissed Reflecting Pool case against David Hearn, Greg Sargent reports.
- OLC Dramatically Expands Claimed Scope of Executive Privilege: The president can assert executive privilege over communications with “private advisers … so long as they relate to official presidential decisionmaking, involve or reflect communications with the President or his direct advisers, and are confidential,” the Office of Legal Counsel asserts in a new memo flagged by Punchbowl.
Photo of the Day
Former Trump lawyer Emil Bove swears in former Trump lawyer Todd Blanche as attorney general in front of President Trump in the Oval Office, Aug. 10, 2026:
Painful Flashback Alert
NYT: How a Counterintelligence Inquiry Into Trump’s Russia Ties Was Derailed by Rod Rosenstein’s Appointment of Robert Mueller as Special Counsel
Mass Deportation Watch
- Politico: Families, lawyers and judges describe a year of frantic emergency cases after a Trump administration memo reversed decades of interpretation of federal law and allowed ICE to begin detaining without bond hearings people who have lived in the U.S. for years. Federal judges have since ruled against the Trump detention policy more than 16,000 times.
- Arizona Daily Star: “Conditions are deteriorating to dangerous levels at a decommissioned hotel in Equatorial Guinea, where dozens of immigrants have been imprisoned since the U.S. deported them to the African nation, without warning or due process, the immigrants and their attorneys say.”
- The American Prospect: An anti-sex-trafficking nonprofit in Utah whose founder resigned in 2023 after multiple women accused him of trafficking and sexual abuse has won a $244 million no-bid federal contract to provide legal services to unaccompanied immigrant children in government custody.
- NYT: New Evidence Shows Agents Using Slurs, Bolstering Profiling Claims
Quote of the Day
Georgetown law professor Steve Vladeck, writing about President Trump’s new birthright citizenship executive orders:
The Citizenship Clause was indeed written to repudiate Dred Scott, the 1857 Supreme Court decision holding that Black people could never be citizens. But the Reconstruction Congress did not swap one caste rule for a narrower one; it extended the promise to “every free-born person in this land.” The idea wasn’t just to retroactively protect “the babies of slaves”; it was to prospectively forestall all future efforts to deny citizenship based on whatever other non-sovereignty-based criteria might be politically popular in any given moment.
The Pyrocene Keeps Pyrocening
July was the hottest month ever recorded in the contiguous United States, nudging past July 2012 and July 1936. The average temperature of 76.9F was more than three degrees above the 20th century average.
In completely unrelated news, the Swiss Re Institute warned today that wildfire risk is the fastest-growing weather peril globally.
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The Big Last Push
Dear TPMers,
We’re now more than 90% of the way toward our goal in this year’s Annual TPM Journalism Fund Drive. But we really need you for that final push. We want to finish this up this week if at all possible. If you’ve been planning on contributing can you make it today? If you’re on the fence, even a small contribution plays a big big role in keeping TPM vital and engaged with the great political crisis of our time. We will put your dollars to very good work. I promise you that. If you’re ready to help us this morning just click right here. We’ve made it super simple and quick. Thank you from all of us.
Mike Lindell Has a Real Shot at Becoming Minnesota’s Republican Candidate for Governor
Mike Lindell’s Big Moment
Amid the wall-to-wall coverage of Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong’s personal evolution or possible lack thereof on the topic of Thanksgiving, you may have missed that the Republican Party is on the cusp of picking two quite extreme gubernatorial nominees on the same evening.
U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) faces little opposition and will become Republicans’ nominee for governor in his home state tonight. As Khaya Himmelman writes for TPM, he is an election denier who has put in the work, not just objecting in Congress against certifying the results of the 2020 election and signing onto Ken Paxton’s lawsuit that year to throw out the results, but continuing to insist that the 2020 election saw “improprieties.” (If you’re curious where he stands on such “Woke I” issues as “Thanksgiving,” he was also one of only 14 Republicans in Congress to vote against making Juneteenth a federal holiday.) This is, to be fair, why Democrats in the state are so concerned about the fate of their own ticket.
I am really here, however, to talk about Minnesota, where Mike Lindell, the man who visited Trump with a proposal for martial law in the days after Jan. 6 and who continues to boost the most outlandish conspiracy theories about the year in which our politics has become forever trapped. Tonight, Lindell has a real shot at becoming Republicans’ Minnesota gubernatorial candidate.
This is in part the result of the field splitting three ways. Minnesota state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth has the money behind her, but the state GOP endorsed another candidate, businessman Kendall Qualls.
Trump, however, endorsed Lindell, and primary voters’ hearts appear to be with the pillow salesman and conspiracy theorist. Poll after poll has shown him ahead, though it is unclear how reliable each of these surveys is. Lindell has faced a series of bizarre and sometimes dumb scandals given that he is, after all, Mike Lindell. The latest is an accusation that he violated campaign finance law by handing out MyPillows on the campaign trail. More seriously, the state GOP continues to question whether Lindell, who previously lived in Texas, even meets the residency requirements for the ballot.
“We’ve never had a party challenge the residency of one of its serious candidates,” Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College, summed it up for the local ABC affiliate. “And then you add the fact that this candidate has been endorsed by the president of that party. It’s really an extraordinary situation.”
Whoever wins this race will face Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) after current governor Tim Walz (D) decided not to run again. The Minnesota primaries so far have seen record-breaking turnout, the secretary of state said yesterday.
Darline Graham Gets a Challenger

South Carolina will hold a special election today to replace Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), whose sister, Darline Graham Nordone, has filled his seat after his death and is running to fill it for a full term. She faces a crowded field of other candidates. Two — presumably the Trump-endorsed Graham and one other — will advance to a runoff. The field contains some familiar names.
- Ralph Norman, who — TPM broke the news — privately urged the White House to invoke “Marshall Law” following the 2020 election, is one. He was crushed in his bid to become the state’s governor earlier this year.
- Former state governor, congressman, and hiker Mark Sanford is also running.
- As is Rep. Russell Fry, who in 2022 unseated Rep. Tom Rice, a Republican critic of Trump who was among the 10 to vote to impeach him.
- Whoever wins will run in November against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who has previously run against Rep. Nancy Mace (R).
Tabs
- Donald Trump was smuggled out of a UK-bound plane and onto another in a catering crate, leaving Turkey in a military jet last month amid an attempt on his life from Iran.
- After supporting some industry priorities last year, a handful of pro-crypto Senate Democrats have balked at its latest demand.
- The DOJ’s bid to get states’ voter roles has lost in court 21 times in a row, Reuters reports.
Man of the Hour

It’s Max Miller, who we’ve covered a lot here, and who, in the face of abuse and domestic violence accusations is now running in a seat that the Cook Political Report has shifted all the way from “likely Republican” to “toss up.” Democrats are now spending seriously on his opponent, Brian Poindexter. The White House urged Republicans not to criticize Miller after it became clear he wasn’t going to quit, Politico reported yesterday.
Are We at War?
Yes, with Trump attempting to one-up Iran by demanding it pay damages to the U.S.
Dr. Phil and a Texas Oil Firm Go to Greenland With a Suspicious Agenda. Signs Point to Trump’s Imperialist Visions.
Of Course Dr. Phil Is Involved
There hasn’t been a ton of new reporting on a suspiciously-timed and blatantly Trump-linked project unfolding in a remote area of Greenland, so I wanted to use Where Things Stand today to help pull some of these threads together. It’s a convoluted story, of which we don’t have the entire picture, but it involves a Texas oil company with close ties to Trump’s imperialist visions in Greenland and, somehow, Dr. Phil.
Continue reading “Dr. Phil and a Texas Oil Firm Go to Greenland With a Suspicious Agenda. Signs Point to Trump’s Imperialist Visions.”Trump-Backed Election Denier Expected to Secure GOP Nomination for Wisconsin Governor
Facing little opposition, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI), an established election denier who voted against certifying President Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in two key states, is expected to easily secure the Republican nomination for governor in Wisconsin during Tuesday’s primary election.
Continue reading “Trump-Backed Election Denier Expected to Secure GOP Nomination for Wisconsin Governor”We’re Goin’ Live to Talk Trump’s Blue State Retribution at 1 PM ET
This afternoon, Emine Yücel, Josh Kovensky and John Light will join me on our YouTube channel to discuss their investigation from last week showing that the Trump administration has on multiple occasions withheld funds from blue states just because they voted blue — you know, the kind of story that would have been leading every news program for a month in the Before Times. Anyway, join us at 1 p.m. ET.
PSA: We’re going to be very active over on YouTube going forward. If you like hearing our voices and seeing our faces, please subscribe so you don’t miss anything!
Houston, We Have a Problem … What’s Up With the National DSA?
Sometimes I write a post which is about information that is not new or secret but new to me. This is one of those posts. I’m sharing it because the information is new to me and I suspect many TPM readers. It’s helpful for me in thinking about the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America as the most visible left faction within the current Democratic Party. Recently I noticed that many or most of the DSA elected officials who’ve achieved some level of electoral success have been denounced, censured or rejected by the local affiliates or council who endorsed them in the first place. Along similar lines, the national DSA is consistently more doctrinaire and left-wing not only than it’s candidates but its local chapters in the major metros where its power is strongest. This isn’t surprising or really new. It’s a general pattern for ideologically-based organizations, an unsurprising feature of the tensions between ideology and complex electorates.
Back to those prominent DSA-backed politicians. I and many others have argued for a while that “socialist” seems more a matter of branding for a lot of DSA candidates, whereas the actual policies and positions sound a lot like pretty ordinary New Deal-style liberal-labor politics. Of course, what counts as “socialism” is wildly over-determined. You’ve certainly see those memes that show like the Socialist Party platform from the 1910s or 1920s and it mostly matches things we take for granted or did take for granted as the mid- and late-20th century New Deal state.
Continue reading “Houston, We Have a Problem … What’s Up With the National DSA?”First at TPM: Judge Orders Immigrant Released After Surreal Journey Through Trump’s Gulag Archipelago
The Bureaucratic Hellscape of Trump Authoritarianism
This morning I want to focus your attention on another especially Kafkaesque example of the worst of the Trump mass deportation operation combined with — and this is critical — the administration’s lawless behavior in federal courts.
Across numerous cases — the Alien Enemies Act, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, “Cristian“, Nelson Ariel Umanzor Chavez, and others — I have been focused not just on the brutalities of the immigration system (many of which pre-dated Trump), but on the new layers of barbarism plus the administration’s direct challenge to the constitutional role of the federal judiciary in policing the mass deportation operation.
In the case of Guatemalan national Faustino Pablo Pablo, we have both in spades.
In a new ruling Friday, which has not been previously reported, U.S. District Judge David C. Guaderrama of El Paso ordered Pablo released from ICE detention after a surreal nine-month journey through the worst of the Trumpian immigration system compounded by highly misleading representations — if not outright lies — by the administration in court. Because of the limited public remote access to habeas corpus cases in federal court, we are largely reliant on Judge Guaderrama’s publicly available orders for the narrative of what befell Pablo.
Pablo arrived in the United States in 2012 after fleeing Guatemala. While Pablo would come to have an order of removal against him, an immigration judge in 2013 issued a withholding of removal to his native Guatemala under the Convention Against Torture, finding that Pablo had “shown it is more likely than not that he will be tortured by, or with the consent or acquiescence of, the Guatemalan government.”
As a result, Pablo was released under an order of supervision and had been living his life freely in the United States for more than decade until Nov. 5, 2025, when he showed up for a routine ICE check-in appointment in California and was detained without notice or explanation.
On Nov. 17, Pablo was transferred to Camp East Montana, the brutal tent encampment on Ft. Bliss in El Paso. The following day, Pablo filed a writ of habeas corpus in federal court in the Western District of Texas. On Nov. 20, he sought an injunction prohibiting the administration from removing him from the court’s jurisdiction while his habeas case was pending. By the time the Judge Guaderrama issued the injunction later that day, Pablo had already been unlawfully deported to Guatemala.
In an admission that it resisted making in other similar cases, the Trump administration conceded that the violation of the immigration judge’s order barring Pablo’s removal to Guatemala had been “unlawful” and began the process of returning him to the United States.
It wasn’t without, shall we say, hiccups.
When Pablo wasn’t returned as promised on a Dec. 4 flight, Judge Guaderrama decried the “blatant lawlessness” of Pablo’s removal and set a deadline for the administration to return him. As TPM first reported, the administration finally returned him to the United States on Dec. 11.
But the saga was not nearly over for Pablo, a Mayan whose native language is Mam, a fact which will become relevant in a moment. What ensued, as outlined in Judge Guaderrama’s order Friday, is the sort of mind-bending behavior from the administration that is part Trumpian authoritarianism and part bureaucratic hellscape.
Even before Pablo’s return, DHS was threatening him with removal to a third country: “One thing is certain: he is not going to be able to remain in the U.S.,” the bombastic then-DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said. “We will deport him to another country.”
After his return, the administration spent the next several months purporting to be preparing to deport Pablo to Mexico, its stated choice as a third-country destination for him.
As he had successfully done for Guatemala, Pablo applied for withholding of removal to Mexico under the Convention Against Torture, but an asylum officer denied his claim of fear of removal in December, clearing the way for his deportation to Mexico.
At that point, the administration repeatedly told Judge Guaderrama that it was prepared to deport Pablo to Mexico and that his injunction barring Pablo’s removal was the only remaining impediment. In his order Friday, Judge Guaderrama documented the administration’s representations to the court:
January 20, 2026: If the Court lifts the stay of removal, ICE will proceed with removing Petitioner to Mexico . . . . The only impediment to removal is this Court’s Order staying removal.
April 6, 2026: If this Court vacated his stay of removal, ERO does not foresee additional procedural hurdles to removing Petitioner to Mexico. Absent any unforeseen circumstances, ERO believes they could effect removal to Mexico within a week of this Court lifting the stay of removal.
July 15, 2026: But for the judicial stay of removal entered in this case, third country removal to Mexico is significantly likely in the reasonably foreseeable future.
In response, Judge Guaderrama lifted his injunction barring Pablo’s removal but in a subsequent order required that an immigration judge review the denial of Pablo’s application for withholding from removal to Mexico. “As far as the Court could tell, the aforementioned IJ review was the Government’s only ‘impediment to removal,'” Guaderrama wrote in his newest order.
But Pablo remained trapped in a bureaucratic maze.
Pablo was scheduled for a hearing in front of an immigration judge on July 27, but his claim of fear of removal to Mexico was not reviewed at the hearing. In addition, the administration did not provide a Mam interpreter so Pablo was unable to understand the proceedings, and Pablo’s attorney wasn’t admitted to the virtual hearing until after it had ended. When Pablo’s attorney was eventually brought in, the immigration judge’s legal assistant informed the attorney that “[t]he judge did not think it was important for [her] to be [t]here,” the attorney later told Judge Guaderrama.
Getting fed up, Judge Guaderrama held an evidentiary hearing of his own on July 29. At issue was whether Pablo’s continued detention was lawful. Even with an order of removal, a detainee cannot be held indefinitely. The Supreme Court has declared detentions lasting up to six months to be presumptively reasonable. Continued detention past that point is lawful only if there is a “significant likelihood” that the detainee will be deported in the “reasonably foreseeable future.”
Guaderrama required the administration to make the still-detained Pablo available for the hearing. Also present for the hearing: two ICE officers with personal knowledge of Pablo’s removal process.
What emerged at the evidentiary hearing was shocking, given the trajectory of Pablo’s case and the many assurances (listed above) from the administration to Judge Guaderrama.
“At that hearing, the Government revealed that Mexico was not (and had never been) a viable option for third-country removal,” Judge Guaderrama recounted in his order.
It turns out that back in December, Pablo had opted out of the only program which would have allowed the administration to deport him to Mexico. So Mexico was never an option, and in the intervening months the administration had not identified any another third country options.
But it gets worse (emphasis Guaderrama’s): “The Government has not taken any steps since December 2025 to identify another country that would accept Petitioner’s removal.”
In a cynically ironic moment at the hearing, an administration lawyer asked Guaderrama, after all this time, for “the opportunity to be able to determine if there’s another third country” to which to deport Pablo.
The developments were eerily similar to those in the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case. The administration had likewise unlawfully deported Abrego Garcia in violation of an order of withholding. After dragging its feet for months, it reluctantly returned him to the United States to face what was eventually ruled a vindictive prosecution, but in the meantime purported to be preparing to deport him to various African third countries. Ultimately U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis of Maryland rejected repeated claims by the Trump administration to the court that Abrego Garcia’s third-country deportation was imminent, finding no evidence that the administration had actually taken steps to arrange a third country that would accept him.
In both cases, the claimed plans for third-country deportations ended up looking like a pretext created to justify the punitive continued detention of an immigrant whose wrongful deportations had embarrassed the administration.
In what may have been among the final straws for Guaderrama, the immigration court held another hearing in Pablo’s case on Aug. 5. Again, no Mam interpreter was present for Pablo, and the immigration judge has not reviewed the asylum officer’s denial of Pablo’s fear claim. Pablo was scheduled for another immigration court hearing to be held on Aug. 31.
In a court filing the next day, the administration managed to make things worse by conceding that it has no plan to move on from Mexico as its country of choice for Pablo, Judge Guaderrama recounted:
The Government does not plan to start looking in the near future, either. One day after Petitioner confirmed that he still does “not accept removal to Mexico,” the Government explained that it will wait to look into “an alternative third country for removal” in case Petitioner has a sudden change of heart.
Guaderrama had had enough.
In his 19-page opinion Friday, Guaderrama said that no matter how he applied the law, even when interpreting it least favorably for Pablo, the continued detention of Pablo was a violation of the Constitution and statute.
Guaderrama ordered the administration to release Pablo no later than today and to confirm his release to the court by COB tomorrow. Stay tuned.
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Iran Says: ‘Desperate Orange Man Comes To Us Begging with Tears in His Eyes’
One of our great doctrines here in the Editors’ Blog is that all power is unitary. Lose or gain it in one place, and you lose or gain it in equal measure everywhere else. That’s catching up with Donald Trump. He got into the Iran War as a way to escape the emotionally crushing experience of declining popularity and power at home. But his ebbing power went with him to the Persian Gulf. And now it’s arrived in Israel, too. This was obscured for a while by the fact that the U.S. has almost unimaginable military power and a constitution which, as it has evolved if not how it was originally intended, puts almost no short-term limits on a president’s ability to wage war. But the two were always umbilically connected. It was the pain of bad news at home that spurred Trump to jump so recklessly into his Iran debacle. And it is the same unpopularity that has him so desperate to end high gas prices and inflation before the midterms. They’re all connected.
Trump has no poker face. To live in Trump’s era is not only to see his inner life but to be engulfed by it. It’s hard to think of a case in which the deciding player between warring powers has more clearly signaled his desperate desire to get out of a conflict on almost any terms. The Iranians have internet too. And they can see all of this. They have now issued a fresh set of new demands: end sanctions, leave the region, pay reparations, release frozen assets and more — in addition to make the Strait of Hormuz a permanent Iranian toll road. More or less total capitulation.