Thinking About the Confirmations

There are a few things that are critical to understanding the Trump Cabinet nominations and how Senate Democrats should approach them. The first and most important is that in the case of every nomination the question is entirely up to Republicans. Republicans have a three-seat majority. They have the vote of the Vice President in a tie. What happens or doesn’t happen is entirely a matter decided within the Republican caucus. It is totally out of Democrats’ control. What follows from that is that everything Democrats do, inside the hearing room or outside, is simply and solely a matter of raising the stakes of decisions Republicans make and raising those stakes for the next election. The aim isn’t for any Democratic senator to try to claw their way through the steel wall of Republican loyalty to Donald Trump. It’s to do everything they can to illustrate that Donald Trump staffs his administration with unqualified and/or dangerous toadies and that Senate Republicans are fine with this because they put loyalty to Trump over loyalty to country.

This all sounds obvious. And it is obvious. But people struggle to see the obvious as obvious. I’m seeing headlines and comments that Democrats failed to change the dynamic or knock any Republicans free. That’s a crazy standard since the dynamic is set. None of this is about whether Hegseth gets confirmed. Republicans control that. It’s about establishing the record Republicans will be running on in 2026 and the stakes for every Senate Republican in a competitive election.

Three Cheers for Blue Origin … No Really

Here’s a sort of update from the world of billionairedom. Today Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos’ space company, was set to attempt its first launch of its hulking “New Glenn” rocket. But they’ve now scrubbed that attempt because of some technical issues and they’re going to try again on Thursday. Blue Origin is either 100% owned or near 100% owned by Bezos. It’s unclear whether some very limited equity may have gone to some early employees. But big picture: it’s Jeff Bezos’ company. It’s not part of Amazon or some public company. It’s his.

The company now seems to be Bezos’ main focus and he’s apparently relocated to Florida to give the company his especial attention. While all space technology is of interest to me, normally I wouldn’t be rooting for a new Bezos business venture. I have no particular beef with Bezos. But as we’ve seen repeatedly in recent months and years, what we might call the super-billionaires have way, way too much power. But in this case I’m really hoping this launch succeeds and that Blue Origin makes big strides in general.

I’m doing this post to explain why.

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Elon Bought More Influence Than Me, Bannon Says

After days of telling the world that Elon Musk is a “truly evil person” who should “go back to South Africa,” and that he would “have Elon Musk run out of here by Inauguration Day,” Steve Bannon has backtracked.

“Look, he’s, the bottom line, he’s not going to be totally out,” Bannon told Politico on Monday, adding later: “Look, when you write $250 million worth of checks, when you’ve got, when you’re that involved, when you have actually backed a ground game, you’re going to have a seat at the table.”

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The Once Critically Endangered Pete Hegseth Goes Before Committee

Pete Hegseth, once the most endangered of Trump’s nominees, now seems on a glide path to confirmation as Defense Secretary.

During his confirmation hearing Tuesday, Republicans fell in line, including Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), who once presented the greatest obstacle to his confirmation — that is, before a right-wing pressure campaign brought her back in line.

Democrats brought up the allegations of sexual assault and alcohol abuse, which Hegseth decried as a “smear campaign” in the left-wing media.

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) was notably effective, the first to touch on Hegseth’s storied history of infidelity.

We’re covering his hearing from Capitol Hill. Follow our live updates below:

Smith Considered Charging Trump With Insurrection. The Law Wasn’t Ready.

Tucked into ex-Special Counsel Jack Smith’s 137-page report on Donald Trump’s 2020 self-coup attempt, he explores a question that’s hung in the background of the case: Why wasn’t Trump ever charged with insurrection?

Continue reading “Smith Considered Charging Trump With Insurrection. The Law Wasn’t Ready.”

Confirmation Theater and Press Credulity

As the Hegseth hearings unfold, I wanted to give you a view into a small part of the story which, while perhaps not terribly consequential in itself, sheds some additional light on the Trump team’s effort to lock down details about Hegseth’s background as well as general press credulity about the same. This morning’s Axios reports that the Trump transition’s “red line” is that only Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-RI) should be briefed on Hegseth’s FBI background check, not the rest of the committee. “The Trump transition team is demanding the president-elect’s nominees be treated the same way they insist Joe Biden’s were,” it reads.

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Trump Loses Last Ditch Effort To Block Jack Smith Report

A lot of things happened. Here are some of the things. This is TPM’s Morning Memo. Sign up for the email version.

Why Didn’t Trump Go To SCOTUS?

Late last evening, President-elect Donald Trump made a final, half-hearted effort to block the release of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s report. In a quick ruling, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon denied Trump’s request to extend her injunction blocking the report’s release.

After that, Trump did not seek further review from the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court and thus Cannon’s injunction expired at midnight ET. Why Trump did not push the matter further, if for no other reason than to try to run out the clock as he has so many times before, is a curiosity for which I have no satisfying answer.

In the wee hours, the Justice Department turned over Volume I on the Jan. 6 case to Congress and then released it publicly. It contains no major revelations or surprises. That has been one of the surreal elements of the past week and a half of legal wrangling over the report’s release, and in a sense it’s a microcosm of the Trump era.

Extra and sometimes extreme effort is required to follow through with and maintain normal processes and procedures, in this case the release of a special counsel report. History shows they largely mirror the contours of the by-then-well-established cases as they played out in court and on appeal. They tend toward self-justification and rationalizing their existence, not blockbuster reveals. But the fight to release the report had the effect of raising the stakes of the report itself.

Volume II, on the Mar-a-Lago case, is not being released because for now the prosecution of Trump’s former codefendants continues. But that prosecution is likely to be corruptly deep-sixed by the Trump DOJ, and Volume II is at risk of never being released to the public.

One minor point on the overnight coverage, which largely focused on Smith’s assessment that he would have won a conviction of Trump had the case gone to trial. The coverage largely treated that assertion like Smith’s ultimate conclusion in the report rather than a predicate to seeking an indictment in the first place. Prosecutors aren’t supposed to bring cases they don’t think they can win.

Surveying The Wreckage

And so it is that the work of Jack Smith has now come to an end, with the most serious crimes a president has even been accused of remaining untried in a court of law. The constellation of factors that led to this point is well known. Among the most critical were the Roberts Court’s unprecedented decisions on the Disqualifications Clause and on presidential immunity combined with Trump’s historic re-election. The damage done to the rule of law, the constitutional structure, and the norms and traditions that gird democracy have been incalculable. The consequences of this miscarriage of justice and breakdown in the rule of law will be reverberating in unknowable and unforeseeable ways for decades.

None of that is Jack Smith’s fault. His prosecution of both cases against Trump were sharply and professionally handled. There were no obvious self-owns or major missteps. He seemed to anticipate correctly the challenges each case posed legally and prepared accordingly. What was within his power to control, he handled well. His office was sufficiently resourced, and some of the best and brightest minds that the Justice Department has to offer contributed to the prosecutions and the complex appellate work involved.

Smith and the members of his team now face years of uncertainty over the threats Trump has repeatedly levied at them and over whether they will be targeted by the incoming Trump administration. In his cover letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland accompanying the report, Smith devotes a few poignant lines to the personal toll those threats have taken on the members of his team and their families:

The intense public scrutiny of our Office, threats to their safety, and relentless unfounded attacks on their character and integrity did not deter them from fulfilling their oaths and professional obligations. These are intensely good people who did hard things well. I will not forget the sacrifices they made and the personal resilience they and their families have shown over the last two years. Our country owes them a debt of gratitude for their unwavering service and dedication to the rule of law.

As our democratic institutions are undermined, they provide less support and protection for the individuals who staff them. Smith and his team — like the prosecutors, investigators, and judges in all the Trump cases — have already paid a personal price no one should have to pay. The threats, the bullying, and the promises of retribution will linger for years. As Smith wrote to Garland:

While we were not able to bring the cases we charged to trial, I believe the fact that our team stood up for the rule of law matters. I believe the example our team set for others to fight for justice without regard for the personal costs matters. The facts, as we uncovered them in our investigation and as set forth in my Report, matter. Experienced prosecutors know that you cannot control outcomes, you can only do your job the right way for the right reasons.

Not everyone is up for the rigors of public service in this environment. They can hardly be blamed. But it makes the efforts of people like Smith and his team all the more commendable.

The Other Special Counsel Report

As the legal battle over the Jack Smith report trundled toward its conclusion, the Justice Department released Special Counsel David Weiss’ report on his prosecutions of Hunter Biden.

LIVE: Hegseth Confirmation Hearing

The first confirmation hearing of a Trump nominee gets underway at 9:30 a.m. ET with Pete Hegseth appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee. TPM’s Kate Riga is in the hearing room and TPM will be liveblogging the proceedings.

To prep for the shitshow of Senate Republicans turning a blind eye to Hegseth’s lack of qualifications and of fitness to serve as defense secretary, a rundown of key new stories:

  • Nashville Tennessean: Why Pete Hegseth nomination is a milestone for the rightwing Christian movement he follows
  • The New Yorker’s Jane Mayer: The Pressure Campaign to Get Pete Hegseth Confirmed as Defense Secretary
  • WaPo: FBI did not interview Hegseth accuser ahead of hearing, people familiar say

Headline Of The Day

WSJ: Zuckerberg Debuts ‘Real Mark’ in Push to Woo Trump

Los Angeles Fire Threat Still At Dangerous Levels

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Trump Pulls A New Fixation Out Of Thin Air And House GOP Runs Off The Cliff With It

House Republicans have been on the hunt for opportunities to do some PDA for the incoming president before he’s officially sworn into office — recognizing that theatric fealty does numbers with Donald Trump, no matter how unserious the content may be.

Continue reading “Trump Pulls A New Fixation Out Of Thin Air And House GOP Runs Off The Cliff With It”

Aileen Cannon Muddles Her Way To A Partial Decision On Jack Smith’s Report

Judge Aileen Cannon for the Southern District of Florida stepped back on Monday from an earlier ruling that purported to block part of ex-Special Counsel Jack Smith’s report from being released, while reasserting her claim to have blocked the rest of it.

Continue reading “Aileen Cannon Muddles Her Way To A Partial Decision On Jack Smith’s Report”

Don’t Blame Libs or Progs for Driving Silicon Valley to the Right

There’s currently a debate online about whether social media owners were always secretly or latently right wing or whether “progressives” took a business constituency that was a reliably friendly and financially generous ally and turned it into an enemy through relentless attacks. Needless to say, there are a lot of jangling threads to this story, details that are hard to wrestle into an overarching theory. There are Silicon Valley titans like Peter Thiel who have always been not simply right-wingers but advocates of weird, tech-infused neo-monarchism. There have also been various left-aligned campaigns that must have rankled various tech titans. And finally, it’s very important to remember that it’s not at all clear that Silicon Valley as a whole is moving right. Management is. But the real and big story is simpler and more structural. The major technology platforms became mature businesses at vast scales; in so doing they butted up against the regulatory purview of the national government; and with the former leading to the latter they shifted toward a more conventionally anti-regulatory politics. A lot of it is really that simple.

There’s an important additional, related point which is that on becoming mature businesses they began looking toward the federal government more and more to protect their business positions from new entrants or other threats.

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