As a general matter, people who write about or strategize about politics greatly overestimate our collective ability to shape how an election will play out, the extent to which clever ideas can pivot the course of an election in any new direction. We’re more small sailboats on a big ocean than some kind of latter-day Neptune actually changing the waves or the wind. But, all that said, Trump may have handed a unique card for Democrats to play against Republican candidates, especially those bordering Canada, which include key states like Michigan, Alaska, and Maine, as well as states with strong trade dependencies like Iowa and Ohio. This part requires little explanation. Heading into an ugly midterm cycle with one damaging and needless war underway, it boggles the mind that he thinks it’s a good idea to start a trade war with America’s second-largest trading partner. Trade wars raise prices; and the cost of living is the largest single issue in the election.
But there’s an additional dimension to the politics.
When some stars or legends die, they spur outpourings and commemorations that appear to transcend the mere mechanics and scaffolding of their fame. Dolly Parton was clearly one of those stars. For many reasons, with her this isn’t surprising. It was predictable and for very good and understandable reasons. But it still hits a certain way when you watch it unfold. It’s certainly not her greatest or hundredth greatest accolade. But I saw someone point out that in the hours after her death she was lauded on the social media feeds of the Democratic Socialists of America and Donald Trump’s — an emblem of her ability to transcend some of the most acidic divides in contemporary American society.
Music has always played a central role in my life. And I have an uncannily strong aural memory, despite having until quite recently virtually no technical knowledge about music theory at all — which tones are associated with which alphabet letters, chord progressions, etc. What I’ve studied pretty closely through my life is popular music history. And if you study the history of the production, composition and performance of music starting around the beginning of the 20th century, you know that one of the biggest throughlines separating the happy stories from the sad and tragic ones is rights and royalties and songwriting credits. Which will bring us back to Parton in a moment.
Good morning! I hope this morning dispatch, focused on the latest updates about ongoing TPM storylines, has been useful. Starting this week, TPM members will receive it as an email. If you’re not a member, consider becoming one!
New Revelations About an Accidental Candidate
Earlier this month, I flagged in the Editors’ Blog an odd situation that had emerged from Michigan’s primaries: the Trump-endorsed candidate in a central-Michigan congressional district that includes the cities of Flint, Saginaw and Midland was a former Guantánamo guard named Amir Hassan. He lost — by a considerable margin — to a little-known former auto industry executive named Tom Smith who had dropped out of the race, but whose name was still on the ballot.
(Speculation abounded that Hassan’s Muslim-sounding name may have had something to do with it. Hassan actually seemingly converted from Islam to Christianity mid-primary race, first describing himself as a “proud Muslim” and later a Christian, which is a whole other story we won’t get into in depth here. A third candidate in the race, Al Lemmo, speculated to the New York Times that Smith beat Hassan because of his “plain-Jane American name.”)
So anyway, who is Tom Smith? An article TPM’s Hunter Walker published yesterday reveals some striking, never-before-reported details.
In his retirement, Smith helps run his family salsa company, Jar Head Salsa, and spends a lot of time on pro-Trump activism. That activism is detailed on Jar Head Salsa’s social media accounts. Hunter writes:
The page is filled with various right-wing memes and takes, including posts comparing Dr. Anthony Fauci to Nazis, calling former First Lady Michelle Obama a man, and one describing “Liberals/Deep State” as the biggest threat to the country. “Jar Head Salsa” also cheered on the Proud Boys and sought blessings for Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their meeting last year.
Even more surprising, perhaps, is the salsa company X account’s narration of a visit to D.C. for Jan. 6. Hunter asked Smith about this, and we were given a statement from Smith acknowledging he traveled to D.C. that weekend and listened to the president’s speech. “I did not enter the Capitol or trespass on restricted grounds,” it read.
This revelation from TPM follows earlier reporting last month — from TPM’s Josh Kovensky — that one of two prosecutors leading Trump’s assault on political activism at DOJ also marched on January 6. While the fact that these figures traveled to the National Mall in the run up to an attempted self-coup may not be surprising in today’s Republican Party — the president and many of his current allies were at the center of it, after all — we still think it’s important to keep track.
A New Reporter Joins TPM
Next month, prolific chronicler of the American right Christopher Mathias will be joining TPM.
You may be familiar with Chris from his years of reporting at HuffPost, including impactful pieces revealing the early, white supremacist writings of conservative pundit Richard Hanania and the way in which an extreme faction of the GOP has taken over Idaho and used its power to target its enemies.
Chris is the author of the book To Catch a Fascist, which we ran an excerpt of earlier this year, and has also recently written for TPM as a freelance contributor:
and once on the concept of “remigration” — a white supremacist idea that the second Trump administration swiftly incorporated into government.
We’re very excited about this. If you aren’t already, you can follow Chris on Bluesky and X.
Some Farmers Are Starting to Get Really Mad at Trump
A cow eats part of a corn stalk bale at Lance Lillibridge’s farm on January 11, 2024, in Vinton, Iowa, where he grows corn, soybeans, alfalfa as well as raising Red Angus cattle. (Photo by JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)
As polls suggest more and more rural states are shifting away from Trump, and that voters overall are turning toward Democrats on economic issues, the new trade war with Canada is likely to make things even worse.
Farmers have becomes increasingly frustrated about rising costs associated with Trump’s ever-shifting tariff regimes and the Iran war, including the cost of fuel and the cost of fertilizer. Canada, aware of these political dynamics, is aiming to target its tariffs on the U.S. accordingly.
Particularly incensed are cattle farmers, who have seen Trump make various moves to undercut the price of American beef — including increasing imports of Argentinian beef last October, a seeming favor to his friend, Argentina’s president Javier Milei.
TPM’s Layla A. Jones has a great piece on all of this today. “He took a lot of value out of that market, just because he said something,” one Iowa beef farmer told her of Trump’s October Argentina announcement. “It’s just really hard to stomach the fact that he can say something off the cuff, clearly doesn’t understand the life cycle of an animal.”
“It’ll be interesting, that’s all I know,” he added about the November midterms, when Iowa has a Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in play.
Tabs
Trump’s blunders on beef, and his trade war with Canada more generally, are making Republicans in Congress squirm, NOTUS reports.
Mike Lindell, after demanding a recount of the primary for Minnesota governor that he lost by a wide margin, is now refusing to pay for it, the Star Tribune reports. He is required by law to foot the bill.
A State Department effort to substantiate a long-running right-wing conspiracy theory claiming widespread censorship of conservatives has collapsed in a confusing spectacle. MS Now’s Brandy Zadrozny and the Bulwark’s Will Sommer each have pieces.
Man of the Hour
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 07: U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) enters the U.S. Capitol Building on August 07, 2026 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Finn Gomez/Getty Images)
It’s Dan Sullivan. The other Dan Sullivan. The AP recently determined that the retired school teacher did well enough in Alaska’s nonpartisan Senate primary last week that he’ll be on the November ballot. While he’s unlikely to become a senator, the current incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (R) has been furious that the shared name may confuse some voters.
Are We at War?
Trump has grown tired of the Iran war. The administration is trying to backburner it for now, Axios reports, characterizing conversations Rubio has had with other foreign governments, and wants it deprioritized for now. “This is expected to be the policy at least until after the midterm elections, when a new military campaign could again be on the table,” Axios reporter Barak Ravid writes.
On Monday afternoon, Craig Moss was testing out a new silage chopper. The machine can dice up an entire green corn plant into half-inch chunks before the milky pieces are packed tight into what Moss calls “big concrete bunkers” where they’ll ferment and become cow feed.
“It’s got a really distinct smell to it,” Moss told TPM in a phone interview. “You probably wouldn’t wanna eat it, but cattle love it.”
An average day on Moss’ farm in Sioux County, Iowa starts around 6:30 a.m. He works alongside Eric, his farm’s one full-time employee, and a part-time worker. His dad, 72, also joins but is slowing down, he said. Because Iowa had an unusually hot summer, he’ll harvest two or three weeks earlier than usual.
A fifth generation farmer, Moss knows all about what it takes to raise cattle. He can rattle off the three-and-a-half year cow maturation cycle in fluid prose accelerated by frustration.
“I’m gonna take you back to last October or so, and Trump’s standing in the doorway of Air Force One and he announces that he’s gonna bring in some Argentinian beef, duty free,” Moss recalled. “A reporter asked him once: ‘What’s your comment to the farmers and ranchers that you’re doing this to? … And he goes ‘They’ve made plenty of money for plenty of good time.’”
Moss remembers President Donald Trump making similar comments for a full month. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures market for cattle plunged for three weeks in a row.
“He took a lot of value out of that market, just because he said something,” said Moss. “It’s just really hard to stomach the fact that he can say something off the cuff, clearly doesn’t understand the life cycle of an animal.”
Moss, like 85% of the electorate in his Sioux County, voted for Trump; he cites his conservative social values. Now he estimates he stands to lose $250,000 “pretty easily” as a result of the president’s beef trade policies. That’s not to mention the impact of tariffs on machinery costs, spiking fuel and fertilizer costs caused by the Iran War, and the impact of financial market volatility on planning for a business wherein decisions are made years in advance.
Moss is aware that people will say he’s getting what he voted for.
His is a story that political analysts have highlighted as a potentially decisive factor in the outcome of November’s midterm elections. The road to victory or defeat may be paved through sprawling, fertilized fields. As the president’s policies oppress his rural electorate nationwide, his most recent actions have acutely affected voters who will decide crucial federal races in swing districts.
Trump announced last Friday that he was lowering tariffs on beef products from other countries, purportedly to address the high price of beef at the grocery store — his most recent policy to alienate Republican voters in key battleground areas. Then, by the weekend, he announced 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of Canadian imports. Canada struck back, announcing Tuesday retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on more than 700 U.S. products.
Trump’s executive actions, and the flippant nature with which he announces them, are hurting the political and economic landscape for Republicans ahead of the midterms.
“It’ll be interesting, that’s all I know,” Moss said about November.
The Cook Political Report shifted its Senate race ratings in Iowa and Texas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” last Thursday, citing hard-to-ignore polling numbers and economic conditions including rising fertilizer and diesel prices. In Iowa’s 2nd Senate District, which includes Sioux County, the most recent Emerson College poll had Sen. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) narrowly leading her opponent, Rep. Josh Turek (D-IA). In July, Cook shifted Alaska’s Senate race between incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) from one in which Republicans were favored to a toss up, citing a ballot-related court ruling. (Peltola beat Sullivan in the state’s open primary on August 18.) Back in April, Cook shifted an Ohio Senate race to fill Vice President JD Vance’s old seat from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” The race will be between Sen. John Husted (R-OH) and former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who’s vying for a comeback after losing in 2024 to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH).
At the Iowa State Fair last Friday, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins backed Trump’s decision to lower tariffs on beef. Bryan Whaley, executive director of the Iowa Cattleman’s Association, spoke with Rollins there.
DES MOINES, IOWA – Livestock is led from the outdoor pens into the inner livestock sheds on day seven of the Iowa State Fair on August 19, 2026 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)
“I shared with her on behalf of the Iowa Cattle Association members, just our general disappointment in the move to bring in foreign meat … instead of focusing on the domestic market; that there are other things that are happening right now within our industry and in all of agriculture which are bigger topics to have,” Whaley told TPM, describing his conversation with Rollins. “And, what is the fascination about beef?”
Protein in general and beef by extension is experiencing a boom time in American culture, fueled by the fitness industry — a reality that makes it especially disappointing, for many, that Trump chose this moment to undercut cattle farmers’ profits.
“Things are changing so fast and one new headline or one new thing that pops up with the industry can significantly change a producer’s income or profitability or margins very quickly,” Whaley said.
The federal government should be looking to support policies that work to expand America’s shrinking cattle herds, Whaley told TPM. Instead, the Trump administration proposed a $4.9 billion cut to the U.S. Department of Agriculture for fiscal year 2027 representing nearly 20% of the department’s discretionary budget. The administration has proposed cutting $510 million from an agriculture research grant program, and Trump’s dismantling of the USDA has been blamed for the resurgence of a once-eradicated screwworm now threatening livestock populations.
Trump won Iowa, an increasingly reddening state, with 56% of the vote in 2024. In several rural counties, Trump earned more than three-fourths of the vote.
Whaley didn’t want to get too political or try to predict Iowa farmers’ voting habits come November. He noted, though, that industry discontent with the economic situation was growing.
“I think that frustration is probably more now than it was previously,” Whaley said.
Rural concerns about fuel costs extend beyond the price of diesel needed to power agricultural machinery. People in rural areas spend 44% more on gas than people in urban communities, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
And a long-simmering rural healthcare crisis exacerbated by Medicaid cuts in Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” reconciliation package is further fueling economic anxieties. Dan Shea, a professor of government at Colby College, had his own bout with that crisis after missing an optometrist appointment last week. The earliest next appointment available was April 2027.
“That’s rural healthcare,” Shea told TPM.
Shea grew up in rural upstate New York and now lives in a rural community outside of Waterville, Maine, inspiring his interest in rural electoral trends.
“I remember when a lot of the rural politicians were Democrats,” Shea said. “I remember when a lot of rural voters were Democrats.”
The rural-urban political divide is new, said Shea, who is co-author of The Rural Voter, and geography is a defining characteristic of the electorate. While Black rural voters still overwhelmingly vote Democrat, for instance, they’re more likely to vote Republican than their urban counterparts. That is in large part because of economic anxieties over the future of rural communities, Shea found.
Maine does nearly half of all its trade with Canada. Trump’s trade war with our northern nextdoor neighbor stands to devastate blueberry, potato, lobster and wood product industries in the very rural New England state. Canada plans to impose 25% tariffs on lobster products and 50% levies on certain lumber products, the country announced Tuesday.
“There are a lot of issues that confront rural America,” Shea said. “They feel abandoned by the president in some ways.”
As Republicans increasingly lean on dated culture-war issues, like stoking panic about trans people in sports, social issues might not be enough to galvanize rural and farming communities facing direct blows from the Republican president. While he doesn’t predict a definitive leftward shift among rural voters, Shea said there’s a wide “enthusiasm gap” between GOP voters Democratic ones. People, he forecasted, will just stay home.
“Donald Trump would lose in the state of Maine right now. There’s no doubt about it,” said Shea. “But will Susan Collins lose? That’s a toss up.”
Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) defeated Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) in Tuesday’s South Carolina runoff, securing the Republican nomination for the state’s Senate seat — which had been occupied by her brother, late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), until earlier this summer.
Americans across the political spectrum are outraged and staunchly opposing the development of new AI data centers — and the fossil fuel-burning gas plants that run them — in rural and urban communities across the country alike.
Tom Smith sort of stumbled into the Republican nomination in his Michigan House district. But based on dozens of posts he made on social media, Smith’s path to the Jan. 6, 2021 protests against President Donald Trump’s election loss was far more deliberate.
After unearthing the series of messages, which were posted to the X.com account for “Jar Head Salsa,” a business Smith has operated with his son in their hometown of Flint, TPM reached out to him for comment. In a statement, Smith said he did not participate in unlawful activity in conjunction with the protests, which turned violent as thousands of Trump’s supporters stormed into the U.S. Capitol.
“Like thousands of peaceful patriots, I attended President Trump’s rally in Washington. After braving the cold for several hours and listening to the President, I returned to my hotel. I did not enter the Capitol or trespass on restricted grounds,” Smith said.
The “Jar Head Salsa” account provided an almost real-time narration of Smith’s train journey from Michigan to Washington D.C. for the protests. While multiple people are involved with the salsa business, several posts about Jan. 6 on the X account indicate Smith was the author including one made on last Aug. 27 that congratulated Brandon Straka, a pro-Trump influencer who was convicted for his role in the protest before being pardoned by the president, for setting up a “headquarters.”
“Happy for you, Brandon,” “Jar Head Salsa” declared, adding, “I was there on January 6th.”
Another message posted on the account a little over an hour later identified the author as “Tom from Flint.”
Smith, a staunchly pro-Trump retired auto industry executive, secured the GOP nomination in the race against incumbent Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-MI) after he had already withdrawn from the race. There has been rampant speculation that voters selected Smith, whose name was still on the ballot despite his early exit, because Trump’s pick for the seat had a Muslim name. Smith’s improbable rise is especially notable since the race is one of the potentially competitive seats where a Democrat won in a district where Trump was victorious in 2024. In the statement acknowledging his attendance at the Jan. 6 protest, Smith indicated his priority is fighting against McDonald Rivet and Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate candidate, Abdul El-Sayed.
“My focus is on delivering common sense results for Michigan and defeating Abdul El-Sayed’s partner in socialism Kristen McDonald Rivet at the ballot box this fall,” Smith told TPM.
In the weeks leading up to Jan. 6, which was prompted by Trump’s false claims that his loss in the 2020 election was the result of a conspiracy against him, “Jar Head Salsa” posted extensively about the efforts to reverse Trump’s defeat. The dozens of messages on the account, which are being printed here with all original grammatical errors intact, included prayers and encouragement for political figures who were working to overturn the vote and multiple promises to attend the main rally.
“All Trumps followers should head to DC on January 6th.!It will be epic and will change history,” the account declared on Dec. 25, 2020.
On the following day, “Jar Head Salsa” boasted, “I will be in DC on the 6th!!!!” Two days later, the account broadcast an even simpler version of that message: “January 6th in DC!!!”
“Jar Head Salsa” also provided a blow-by-blow journey of their trip from Michigan to the protest.
“I bought Amtrak tickets from Detroit to DC. $169 round trip. Eliminates the parking problem. Train Station is right by Capitol. Got a hotel room on Priceline for $74 a night. Arriving the 5th. Leaving the 8th,” they said on Dec. 22, 2020.
“Jar Head Salsa” repeatedlypublished variations of the message describing their travel arrangements. Once they set out for D.C., the account shared messages detailing every phase of the journey including a transfer in Ohio and their scheduled arrival time and desire to attend one of the rallies leading up to the main protest. Location tags on X showed them passing through Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maryland en route to Washington.
“I am on an Amtrak train heading to DC. Many Patriots aboard!!!” the account said.
“Jar Head Salsa” has been a prominent part of Smith’s unusual House race. His campaign’s Facebook page features a photo of Smith standing alongside jars of the salsa and signs noting his own family company endorsed him. The biography on Smith’s campaign website notes that “in 2009, Tom turned his lifelong entrepreneurial dream into reality by launching Jar Head Salsa alongside his son Dave, a proud U.S. Marine Corps Veteran.” A 2018 article from the Detroit Free Press identified Smith as the company’s Chief Operating Officer and Dave as his “business partner and creator of the salsa recipe.” Dave told the paper he came up with the salsa while serving as a cook in the U.S. Marines and the pair claimed they “give 10 percent of the net revenues to charities that support veterans.”
While Dave may have been the man behind the recipe, various missives on the brand’s X.com page indicate Smith served as the salsa company’s social media guru. On X, Dave was identified as “The Gunny,” which is shorthand for a Marine gunnery sergeant. Multiple messages on the account weresigned “The Gunny’s Dad.” That nickname was also used in a post that was published on Dec. 24, 2020 in response to someone who indicated they were “thinking about going to DC on the 6th.”
“The Gunny’s Dad from Flint, Michigan is going,” the post said.
Other posts on the “Jar Head Salsa” page included Smith’s personal phone number and identified it as a way to contact “Gunny’s Dad.” And, in 2024, Smith apparently used the account to tout his efforts to campaign for Trump’s re-election. On Dec. 8, 2024, “Jar Head Salsa” congratulated former Republican National Committee Chairwoman Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, for her efforts during the campaign with a post that said, “Thanks Lara, Trump Team Captain Tom Smith.” As the 2024 race wound down, the “Jar Head Salsa” account repeatedly sharedpictures that seemed to show Smith volunteering for Trump.
“I never served my country in the military but this is my chance to fight the communists as Trump Force 47 Captain,” the account said.
Based on campaign finance records, Smith set up his House campaign in May of this year. He did little campaigning or fundraising and, in July, made a post indicating he was dropping out and backing a rival. However, Smith’s exit from the race came too late for his name to be taken off the ballot. Trump had endorsed a former federal law enforcement officer, Amir Hassan, in the Republican primary. During the race, Hassan said he had converted to Christianity from Islam, but, as the Guardian noted in a recap, “social media commentary suggests Republican voters did not view Hassan’s conversion as authentic and were apprehensive about nominating a Muslim candidate.” GOP primary voters ultimately picked Smith’s name on the ballot despite his withdrawal.
Along with revealing Smith’s attendance at the Jan. 6 protest, the “Jar Head Salsa” account provides a glimpse into his politics following his strange and surprising primary victory. The page is filled with various right-wing memes and takes, including posts comparing Dr. Anthony Fauci to Nazis, calling former First Lady Michelle Obama a man, and one describing “Liberals/Deep State” as the biggest threat to the country. “Jar Head Salsa” also cheered on the Proud Boys and sought blessings for Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of their meeting last year.
“Dear God, Bless Presidents Trump and Putin abundantly; Expand their territory; Let Your Hand be upon them; Keep them from evil. Through Jesus Christ our Lord. Amen,” the account said.
“Jar Head Salsa” also was a fixture in the replies of various right-wing influencers including in 2024 when they posted 13 different messages claiming to have been “awakened at 4:30 AM with a message from God for Dan Bongino.” And, while Smith insists he did nothing unlawful on Jan. 6, “Jar Head Salsa” clearly sympathized with the protesters who were arrested for their actions and later pardoned by Trump. On Dec. 21, 2024, “Jar Head Salsa” responded to a post from a pro-Trump account that called on people to “PRAY FOR J6 PRISONERS AND THEIR FAMILIES.”
The White House directed federal law enforcement last year to pursue the opposition in broad strokes: if a person is “anti-fascist,” if they support “anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity,” then that indicates a potential for domestic terrorism. The next step, the White House said, was to investigate and prosecute.
On Tuesday, a federal judge advanced the ball in a challenge to President Donald Trump’s order to overhaul mail-in voting, an important step in what will be a furious few weeks of litigation critical to the 2026 midterms.
Federal law enforcement’s undercover campaign to surveil Minneapolis protesters included monitoring a makeshift memorial to Alex Pretti, joining a neighborhood rapid response Signal group, and having an undercover agent vote for an activist group to endorse abolishing prisons, new documents filed in federal court today suggest.
