A trio of new polls Thursday in the Colorado Senate race suggests the race is going to be a tough one to nail down: They show everything from Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) pulling into a tie with GOP challenger Cory Gardner to Gardner extending his lead to seven points.
The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Udall and Gardner tied, with both polling at 48 percent. The firm’s last survey, in mid-October, had Gardner with a 3-point lead, 46 percent to 43 percent.The new poll was conducted by PPP for the League of Conservation Voters. Its mid-October poll was conducted without a sponsor.
A new Quinnipiac poll showed Gardner with a 7-point advantage, 46 percent to 39 percent. That’s up from a 5-point Gardner lead that the pollster found about a week ago.
And the new Denver Post/Survey USA poll came down in the middle: It found Gardner leading by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, the same as its last poll from the middle of the month.
The two most closely-watched constituencies in the race are women and Hispanics, both of whom Udall is believed to need to win big in order to recreate the unlikely 2010 win by Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO). The PPP poll gives Udall a 9-point lead with women, while trailing with men by 11 points. Quinnipiac had Udall winning women by 6 points and losing men by 21. SurveyUSA gave Udall a 6-point lead among women.
Among Hispanics, PPP put Udall up big, 63 percent to 27 percent. SurveyUSA had him with just a 3-point lead. Quinnipiac did not break out the Hispanic vote, but they made up 10 percent of its sample versus 13 percent of PPP’s.
Most recent polling has shown Gardner with a consistent — and sometimes sizable — lead. But a handful of Democratic-leaning polls have pegged it as tied or Udall with a small lead. According to TPM’s PollTracker average, Gardner is currently leading at 47.1 percent with Udall at 45.3 percent.