Same-sex marriage has been defeated each time it’s appeared on a state ballot, but two polls released this weekend indicated that the LGBT community’s long-awaited electoral breakthrough may come in Maine and Minnesota on Tuesday.
A poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling released late Saturday shows 52 percent of likely Minnesota voters oppose a proposed constitutional amendment to recognize marriage between a man and woman as the only valid union in the state. Forty-five percent support the amendment. PPP’s previous Minnesota survey conducted in early-October showed a decidedly tighter race.
In Maine, a survey from in-state pollster Critical Insights released Sunday shows 55 percent of likely voters support a referendum to provide legal recognition to same-sex marriage. Opposition to the measure has jumped 7 points to 42 percent since the previous Critical Insights poll in June, while support has remained largely static.
PPP’s survey was conducted Nov. 2-3 using automated interviews with 1,164 likely Minnesota voters with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. The Critical Insights poll was conducted on behalf of the Portland Press Herald and Maine Sunday Telegram on Oct. 30-31 using live phone interviews with 613 likely Maine voters. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.