NYTimes Poll Suprise: Southern Senate Dems In The Lead

Senator-elect Kay Hagan, D-N.C., celebrates at her election party in Greensboro, N.C., Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
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A round of new polls conducted by The New York Times and Kaiser Family Foundation have some good (and surprising) news for a handful of Southern Senate Democrats regarded as the most vulnerable in the 2014 election cycle.

The polls, released Wednesday, found Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leading Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) 46 percent to 36 percent. In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) just barely leads Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44 percent to 43 percent, the poll found.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is neck-and-neck with House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-NC) in a hypothetical matchup with Hagan getting 42 percent while Tillis gets 40 percent.

Lastly, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has a commanding lead over Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and the rest of the field in the Louisiana Senate race. That finding deserves a caveat: Louisiana’s primary system is something called a “jungle primary” where there is no Republican or Democratic primary. Instead all candidates run together and if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates face each other in a runoff election. The poll found Landrieu with 42 percent followed by Cassidy with 18 percent. No other candidate managed to get double digits.

The polls were conducted April 8 to the 15. In Arkansas 1,027 voters were surveyed 857 of which were registered voters. In Kentucky, 1,026 voters were surveyed and 891 were registered voters. In Louisiana, 1,075 were surveyed and 946 were registered voters. In North Carolina 1, 024 were surveyed and 900 were registered voters. The margin of error for each poll was plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters.

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  1. One poll tells you NOTHING. This is indeed a hopeful sign, but just reminder: the NYT was rated only the 6th most accurate pollster in the 2012 election by Fordham University. After we see a few more polls, then I’ll be more open to this possibility.

  2. Sorry it’s happening to you but I am glad it’s not just me.
    And it’s not just this thread either; I’m having to keep logging out and then in to comment or see comments.
    I want to like this and hope it gets fixed soon but for now I am very irritated. I’m coming here less and less often now.

  3. Avatar for enon enon says:

    but… all the knowitall media magpies have been telling me that the democrats are going to lose the house and senate and forever be the minority party…

  4. Yes, it’s very wonky. Claims that comment pages don’t exist that you’ve previously commented on, comments not posting, etc.

    Logging out and logging in again seemed to help in my case.

  5. I emailed TPM with some of my comment viewing problems and Joe Ragazzo responded quickly but said that they were experiencing only “intermittent” problems. Rigggggggtttttttttt.
    Logging in and out sometimes helps as well as clicking the comment number up and down arrows.

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