Over the Christmas weekend a new poll of New Hampshire showed an old result. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich continues to fall in the state after his surge peaked nationally and he started being attacked by his GOP counterparts. Newt is now tied with Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) for second place in the state, but far behind long-time leader former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney.
The Newt fall hasn’t exactly brought the race back to square one like other boom and bust candidates, but its certainly opened a door — a door which Paul, former ambassador and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman are threatening to walk through in the Granite State, but which Mitt Romney is still standing in.
The Newt surge seemed to signal something different in the ever-changing GOP primary process. Republicans may have known that Newt’s candidacy was problematic, but he’s an experienced pol who touted his conservatism and wasn’t named Mitt Romney — so primary voters looked to have settled on him as the imperfect but available alternative. The media was gearing up for a two person GOP race going forward. And now it looks like any momentum Newt had is now gone, which is why he says he’s looking forward to South Carolina, even floating the idea that he could finish fourth in Iowa after leading the state handily only a few weeks ago.
The new Globe poll showed Huntsman at 11 percent, six points behind the Paul-Gingrich tie for second. The Gingrich trend has been obvious — he’s dropped a few points in every polling round of New Hampshire since his high in the mid twenties at the end of November. But should Newt continue to fall, it opens up second place. And Paul would be the usual candidate for the spot — except he’s currently embroiled in a fight over the racist content of newsletters put out in his name.
Huntsman could still make a move in New Hampshire, but he’s polling between 1 and 3 percent in every other state. So his long-term prospects, even with a bump in the media from a strong second, wouldn’t likely to amount to much when the campaign swings southward.
So the Gingrich theory goes like this — with Paul marginalized by extremism, and Huntsman by the ideological demographics of GOP voters in the southern states, Newt just has to make it to South Carolina and Florida before he starts to take states. As it is right now, Newt’s leading by a big margin in South Carolina, with the latest polling from a week ago. It’s the same in Florida, although there aren’t fresh numbers. But the counter to that is the evidence we’ve already seen in Iowa: Newt is susceptible to negative ads, which he doesn’t have the money to defend against, and in primary states like South Carolina and Florida, he might struggle to withstand the barrage.
It’s likely the best argument for how Romney finally nails down the nomination, dragging a GOP primary electorate kicking and screaming with him. The Gingrich theory only works in a vacuum: in a fantasy land without modern campaigns, Newt might be able to debate his way into victory in the southern primaries. But as it is, he may lose big time in Iowa and New Hampshire, and when the Romney campaign and Super PAC allies flood the airwaves in SC and FL, with little to no response, it may be lights out.
