Count me among those skeptical that the “Aqua Buddha” ad Jack Conway was running in the Kentucky Senate race backfired and cost him any chance of winning the election. There’s two data points used as evidence for this theory: polls show voters didn’t like the ad, and Conway’s own stock dropped right around the same time.
Neither point is convincing on its own nor taken together. Voters almost never approve of attack ads. That’s not the proper measure of the effectiveness of an attack ad. As for Conway’s drop, maybe it was Aqua Buddha, but I’m not sure how you isolate that factor from the myriad other variables in the stretch run of a campaign, like the $4 million in outside money in Kentucky to attack Conway (or the fact that no one gave Dems a shot at picking up this seat until Rand Paul won the GOP nomination). Read More
It seems somehow appropriate that opening arguments get underway today in Tom DeLay’s money laundering trial.
I mentioned this in passing over the weekend. But something odd is up in Nevada. Notwithstanding an overnight PPP poll showing the Senate contest basically back to neck-n-neck, the polls have shown pretty unambiguously that Sharron Angle has finally managed to open up a small but significant lead over Harry Reid.
We’re in the last 24 hours now. And it seems like something new is breaking every minute, almost literally. To keep up with it all, check out our live-updating TPM Midterm Wire. Definitely take a look.
As I’ve noted, there are a flood of new polls out over the last 12 hours or so. (See write-ups of the big ones at TPMDC or hit TPMPolltracker to get the ones you’re most interested in.) Late polls are a funny thing. Because we’re now in the window of time when the campaigns themselves aren’t paying any attention. Everything now is focused on the ground game. But here’s one thing to keep an eye on. You’ve got national pollsters and in-state pollsters. Most or at least many states have a marquee in-state pollster. They’re the ones who know the state really, really well. And they often have a very good track record in their own states. Often those premier in-state pollsters will come out with one final poll today. So in this flood of data, keep an eye out for the final read of the folks who know the state’s electorate best. Doesn’t mean they’re right. And in most cases they’ll likely be in line with everyone else. But sometimes they’ll see stuff the national folks won’t.
Soldier who worked on Joe Miller’s journo-arresting ‘security detail’ didn’t have permission from superiors to work for the security firm or on Miller’s detail.
I’m not usually one for protest sign humor. But the first one in our 25 signs at the Sanity/Fear rally won it for me.
TPM Reader TB offers his take on the Jack Conway-Rand Paul race: Read More
Ron Johnson, likely GOP winner in the Wisconsin Senate race, says he’d never publicly challenge executive branch of on matters of war and peace.
It all had to come down to this. Our Evan McMorris-Santoro was at Christine O’Donnell’s big Tea Party campaign rally in Wilmington yesterday. And he interviewed “Linda”, a O’Donnell supporter dressed as a witch who says Congress needs to investigate President Obama’s birth certificate. Watch the video.