TPM Reader TB offers his take on the Jack Conway-Rand Paul race:
I agree with TPM Reader JW about the Conway-Aqua Buddha situation.
I live in Louisville, and it is not unusual to see at least two anti-Conway commercials in a row, one by Rand Paul’s campaign and one by American Crossroads or the Republican Senate Campaign Committee. Then sprinkle in all the GOP-related ads attacking other candidates for Obamacare or Pelosi’s health plan and it’s a steady drumbeat of “vote against the Democrat.”
GOP backers even run commercials here against Democratic Indiana Senate candidates using pix of the Prez and Pelosi and warnings of Obamacare. It’s hard for Conway’s commercials to even get noticed amid all that noise. (Thank you, Supreme Court.)
I think Rand Paul’s minders did a terrific job of “handling” him after the initial wave of mistakes — he has not continued to make stupid statements about things like mining regulations. So Conway had no fresh material to attack.
It was always going to be an uphill battle for Conway; everyone should keep in mind that Ky. gave McCain one of his largest margins of victory in 2008. It is one of the most conservative states — that’s galling to Ky. liberals, most of whom live here in Louisville, but it’s also the sad truth.
A different take from TPM Reader MS:
I think that you are missing something with your analysis, and while it might not make the “Aqua Buddha” ad a negative, it almost certainly made it less effective.
Specifically, I think that the reactions of perceived Democrats and Republicans to hard hitting campaign ads are different.
When Republicans do ads like Willie Horton or Swift Boats, the Republican establisment and the Republican punditocracy get together and endorse the message, and say that it is true and brave, and so Democrats are shown to be wimps unless they push back HARD, which they almost never do.
By the same token, when Democrats do hard hitting ads, and compared to Horton or Swift Boating, Aqua Buddha was mild, the Democratic establishment and the Democratic punditocracy get together and wring their hands about how awful it is to set this sort of town, and so Democrats in general are shown to be wimps, even if this specific candidate is not shown to be a wimp.
Basically, when a Democrat does not get tough, he is bitch slapped by the Republicans, and when he does get tough, he is bitch slapped by the Democrats, and voters are disinclined to vote for someone who gets bitch slapped.
