US President Donald Trump speaks at a midterm campaign rally at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida on October 30, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)

It is a given of the 2026 midterms that a wave of still-uncertain magnitude is likely because of Donald Trump’s historic unpopularity. What gets less attention is how much the Senate races themselves — like who is running and whether an election is even being held — have been shaped very directly by his actions. Ohio, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Iowa all, amazingly, fall into this bucket.

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