Yesterday we noted that the latest GOP Speaker wannabe, Jim Jordan and his allies have shifted to mobilizing base MAGA supporters against the substantial number of holdouts who have either claimed they won’t vote for Jordan on the floor of the House or claim they will never vote for him. This morning Jordan seems to be making substantial headway. One key Republican holdout, Mike Rogers of Alabama, now says he’s on board. So does Ken Calvert, who represents a swing district in California.
I’m genuinely uncertain how this plays out. The way Jordan loses is that the more established Republicans who are, just to put it plainly, tired of the bullshit, continue to refuse to vote for him. This is a group of members generally in safe or safe-ish seats who are in no way “moderates.” Most of them are very conservative. A number of them are big players in the House GOP caucus. For some it’s simply putting their foot down and refusing to give way to a group that simply refuses to play by the rules. Some are allies of Steve Scalise who are angry that Scalise won the caucus election fair and square and then had to give up because Jordan’s supporters just didn’t care. In most cases the two grievances just flow together.
If they give way you’ll be left with a handful of vulnerable Republicans like the newly elected members from New York state and a few others sitting in Biden districts. If it’s down to them I’m fairly certain they just fold.
If it plays out like that you could have a Speaker Jim Jordan in place by tomorrow.
This would be quite bad for the country. But it’s hard for me to see how it isn’t pretty bad for the GOP in terms of the 2024 election, at least in the House.
Late Update: Now another, Ann Wagner (MO), has flipped. The rationale is refusal to be forced to work with Democrats to elect a Speaker. Steve Womack seems to be the only high profile NeverJim who’s holding tough. My assumption now is the Jordan probably wins this. Though we need to see more to know.
Later Update: I think this is close to done. Jordan is going to be Speaker. Maybe not tomorrow but soon. And in all likelihood probably tomorrow.
