Member Newsletter
According to some of the country’s most prominent news publications, the Democratic establishment moved quickly beginning Sunday afternoon to lock down the Democratic presidential nomination for Kamala Harris. Said Axios this morning: “It’s over. The Democratic establishment pushed out Biden and locked in Kamala Harris with astonishing speed and efficacy.” The Times published a piece entitled “How Democrats Learned to Love the Smoke-Filled Room Again.” But the idea that the ‘establishment’ anointed Kamala Harris and locked the nomination down for her turns the whole matter pretty much on its head. What locked in Harris was the overwhelming resistance of Democratic voters and activists to anyone else. It was national columnists and a significant number of Democratic elites who were pushing for the thunderdome primary.
A good bit of this was support for Harris herself. A lot of it was the fact that with the incumbent president and presumed nominee out and no time to run anything other than a fake primary Harris had democratic legitimacy on her side. Eighty million voters literally chose her in 2020 to be the person who took over for Joe Biden if he couldn’t serve. Democratic primary voters in effect reconfirmed that this Spring since Biden and Harris were again running as a package deal. Few things are more embedded in American political culture than the idea that vice presidents succeed presidents.
Democratic legitimacy in this context isn’t some political science concept. It is what makes her the one person who most or all party stakeholders could rally behind even if she wasn’t necessarily their personal choice. That was never going to be possible with any other potential nominee. If the pick was somehow Gretchen Whitmer, on what basis would Shapiro or Newsom supporters – or Harris supporters, for that matter – ever think that was fair? Most people who actually operate in politics realized this from the first moments people began to suggest Joe Biden should leave the race almost a month ago. It applied even more to the millions of Biden loyalists who had to be dragged kicking and screaming to accept Biden’s withdrawal from the race. For most of them Harris was the only acceptable alternative since she was his loyal deputy.
Finally, the Democratic Party is defined by the support of women and African-Americans, and especially African-American women. The idea that in an unprecedented electoral emergency situation they were going to skip over the President’s loyal black woman vice president for no clear or tangible reason but the opposition of elite columnists and consultants never made any sense if you’re familiar with the Democrats’ voting coalition. It would be the equivalent of deciding to toss a few sticks of dynamite into the Democratic coalition at a moment of unprecedented crisis.
The thunderdome primary and convention idea was always the fantasy of the DC chattering class. From its very beginnings early this year it was premised on the need to shunt Harris aside. One New York Times columnist referred to it, in a gentle but awkward tone assuming immediate recognition, as “the Kamala Harris problem.” What shut it down was the rush of support for Harris from people across the Democratic Party, high and low, who understand its inner workings and the points made above. You only imagine those are the actions of “the establishment” if what you understand as the Democratic Party is only what you see in Washington, DC. The Thunderdome primary crowd was always either oblivious to or at war with the actual mass of the party itself. They were simply invisible. If you can’t see those people, you’ll think the DC power players are acting on their own. But they weren’t. But they were very clearly reacting to what the mass of the party would allow.
There is one exception that proves the rule: one endorsement that was key to Harris’ rapid ascent to the nomination, that of Joe Biden. From one perspective who is more the establishment, who more wields its powers than an incumbent Democratic president? But that’s the point. What finally made Biden’s departure from the race inevitable is that he had been abandoned by almost every elected official and power broker in the Democratic world, either explicitly or by silence. Biden had been abandoned by every part of what passes for the Democratic establishment and had lost his ability to control it. It was his tweet endorsing Harris that did not cause but triggered the rush toward Harris, resulting in something like a million individuals contributing roughly $100 million in 36 hours.
Harris’ key role in this has hidden in plain sight. A crisis at the pinnacle of leadership is always a most dangerous moment for any heir apparent. She had to prepare herself for the task of taking over for Biden in all its details (not to do so would have been the height of irresponsibility) while simultaneously not allowing even the hint or glimmer that she was taking even the slightest steps to hasten or encourage openness to his fall. For all the stories about Harris’ office drama she appears to have managed this flawlessly, with not so much as a single leak or even speculation about her actions. Once Biden made his announcement she moved rapidly to channel and direct support for herself in a way that all potential challengers threw their support to her within 24 hours. The “establishment” didn’t shut down the Thunderdome contested convention that columnists and reporters were demanding. The convention remains wholly open. Once Biden ended his campaign all the delegates had a total free choice. What killed Thunderdome was the mass of the party making it impossible for anyone to challenge Harris.