WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 30: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) speaks to reporters as returns to his office from the Senate Chamber at the U.S. Capitol Building on June 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. Senate Republic... WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 30: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) speaks to reporters as returns to his office from the Senate Chamber at the U.S. Capitol Building on June 30, 2025 in Washington, DC. Senate Republicans return this morning after being forced by Democrats to read a new version of the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill" in its entirety last night as they approach U.S. President Donald Trump's July 4 deadline. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) MORE LESS

I agonized for a bit about the point I’m about to discuss. But I didn’t agonize for long because I decided there was not much to agonize about. The topic is the September federal budget showdown, essentially a replay of the March “continuing resolution” drama in which Democrats had their first shot at real leverage against Donald Trump. As you’ll remember, Democrats under Chuck Schumer’s leadership decided to hold out for nothing. This was not only a missed opportunity. It’s fair to say it drove a catastrophic collapse of confidence in the Democratic Party’s elected leadership in Washington, DC., an impact that has been reverberating through national and opposition politics ever since.

Now we have a literal replay of that moment. The White House again needs Democrats’ vote in the Senate for a continuing resolution to keep the government open. Democratic leaders have been insisting they won’t make the same mistake again, and recent reports suggest President Trump’s increasingly aggressive attempts to seize budget authority from Congress all but assure a government shutdown at the end of the month. But a closer look suggests that Senate Democrats will insist on no meaningful brakes on Trump’s lawless actions and may, perversely, help him hold Congress next year.

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