Member Newsletter
News just broke that President Trump has withdrawn the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to serve as ambassador to the UN. It’s a good reminder that though we should never take joy from the suffering of others, there are some occasions when it’s okay. Luckily for Stefanik, she has not yet resigned her House seat. But she has given up her position as House GOP conference chair. And you don’t get those back. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI) now has that job. And I assure you she is not going to do Elise a solid and get out of the way. So now it’s time for Stefanik to crank up the campaign machinery again and for her upstate constituents to realize they were her second choice.
But the real story is why this is happening.
As you know, the House majority is already down to two seats. They really can’t afford to lose any seats. More than a couple and they could literally lose the majority. But it’s not mostly because they’re worried about losing Stefanik’s pretty Republican seat, though that is in the mix too. It’s the situation in Florida’s 6th district, the one Rep. Mike Waltz (our fat-fingered Signal friend) vacated to become Donald Trump’s national security advisor. Back in November, Waltz won reelection by 33 points. Now they’re suddenly very worried that political newcomer Josh Weil (D), a math teacher, is going to beat the rather lackluster/off-the-rack GOP candidate, state senator Randy Fine.
If you’re anywhere in the Democratic media ecosystem, you’ve probably been seeing ads or getting emails raising money for Weil. By rights this should be a hopeless campaign. Again, Waltz just won it by 33 points. Some of that margin is going to be because that was a hopeless race. So local Democrats didn’t field a strong candidate and didn’t put any money behind it. But it still means it’s a very Republican district. About a week ago someone asked me if I thought it would be a waste of money to contribute to Weil’s campaign. I told them I didn’t think there was any real chance Weil could win. But in political terms, just coming close in a solidly Republican district sends a powerful signal. And who knows? It’s a crazy environment. Anything is possible.
Then a poll came out yesterday showing Fine beating Weil by only 4 points, 48% to 44%.
Needless to say, Fine is still ahead. But this isn’t just any race. This is a low-turnout, special election in which Weil is running as the candidate of the out-party that is riding a wave of as-yet-unsated electoral backlash. If that poll is even in the ballpark of accurate, Weil could definitely win this race. In a special election, turnout is everything and it’s easy to imagine Democratic turnout swamping the GOP.
That “if” above about the poll isn’t a throwaway line. It’s a relatively small sample size (403 likely voters). But it’s a known in-state pollster, St. Pete Polls. So is it doable for Weil? Absolutely. Not a done deal by any means, but absolutely doable. The election is Tuesday and, with early voting, ballots are already being cast. If you don’t take my word for it, take Republicans’ word. They’re scrambling to do everything they can to pull Fine over the line.
There’s another special election coming up to replace Matt Gaetz. That district, Florida’s 1st district, is wildly more Republican than Waltz’s old district. But in this climate, who knows? More to the point, if Weil can win Waltz’s old seat, a Democrat probably has a shot in Stefanik’s seat too. That’s simply not a risk the White House can take. Thus the big frownie face — a la Tracy Flick — for Elise Stefanik. Yanking Stefanik’s nomination is White House for “there’s a good chance Fine is going to lose.”
But even if none of that happens, this is an example of the power of elections and public opinion, even long in advance of November 2026. At a certain point, members of the GOP caucus start to think, “if they’re not sure they win Waltz’s old seat or Stefanik’s, how am I doing? I’m up here in DC owning the libs and all, and it’s a lotta fun. But could I lose my reelect over this?”
That is precisely the kind of fear and tension Democrats — and all upstanding Americans — need to see now in congressional Republican ranks. Florida 6th — Waltz’s — is probably a seat Democrats can only win in a special election or perhaps a big wave election. But that doesn’t really matter. If Democrats were consistently winning House seats like Florida 6th next year, they’d be much closer to 300 seats than 200 seats. But if Democrats can pick those seats up in a special election, that means a lot of House Republicans likely have tough races on their hands. And if that perception takes hold, that changes the calculus for everything that happens in Congress over the next 18 months.