Senate Chances Improving

Part of me is reluctant to flag the coverage of publications I routinely criticize, particularly when their electoral politics coverage can be so egregious. But I do so here with Axios because it’s an example that even the insider sheets in DC are starting to take notice of the fact that Democrats holding the Senate or even possibly expanding their Senate majority is not some partisan pipe dream. It’s a very real possibility.

Some of this is abortion politics and to a much lesser extent firearms politics. But a big, big part of the equation is that Donald Trump was able to more or less singlehandedly pick the nominees in a number of critical states and shape the choices in a number of others. There’s simply no way absent Donald Trump’s intervention that Mehmet Oz or Herschel Walker would be the nominees in Pennsylvania and Georgia. They are both uniquely bad candidates. They might slip through in a wave election. But they’re giving Democrats big, big opportunities. Tim Ryan is at least making a fight of it in Ohio, though that’s a very steep climb. Blake Masters in Arizona and possibly even disgraced former Governor Eric Greitens in Missouri could extend this pattern. Given recent trends, Missouri shouldn’t even be in contention this year. But Greitens’ mix of campaign ad snuff films and rep for sexual violence could put it there.

It won’t be easy to hold the Senate and it certainly won’t be easy to expand the Democratic majority. But both are looking more plausible to me than they did even seven or eight weeks ago.

With all this possibly positive news, some might say, why all the focus on the Senate? If the goal is to pass a Roe law in January 2023, holding the House is likely the biggest challenge. That’s quite possibly true. But paradoxically those Senate pledges are as important for holding the House as they are for the Senate. It’s the surety of a pledge of 48 senators to tackle Roe and the filibuster if Dems hold the House and add two Senate seats that puts a clear post-election Roe bill outcome on the table in House elections around the country.

Dear Reader,

When we asked recently what makes TPM different from other outlets, readers cited factors like honesty, curiosity, transparency, and our vibrant community. They also pointed to our ability to report on important stories and trends long before they are picked up by mainstream outlets; our ability to contextualize information within the arc of history; and our focus on the real-world consequences of the news.

Our unique approach to reporting and presenting the news, however, wouldn’t be possible without our readers’ support. That’s not just marketing speak, it’s true: our work would literally not be possible without readers deciding to become members. Not only does member support account for more than 80% of TPM’s revenue, our members have helped us build an engaged and informed community. Many of our best stories were born from reader tips and valuable member feedback.

We do what other news outlets can’t or won’t do because our members’ support gives us real independence.

If you enjoy reading TPM and value what we do, become a member today.

Latest Edblog
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Investigations Desk:
Reporters:
Newswriters:
Director of Audience:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: