Member Newsletter
On the campaign trail last year Donald Trump repeatedly promised that he’d end the Russo-Ukraine war on day one of his presidency. It was always a given that any peace deal struck by President Trump would be very much on Russia’s terms. But what’s developed over the last week looks qualitatively different. If not literally the same in terms of the carving up of land, these peace talks look more like the discussions leading up to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with the divvying up perhaps as focused on natural resource concessions as territory. That may sound a bit dramatic. But what’s actually being discussed in the meetings in Riyadh aren’t permanent or interim borders for Ukraine or repatriation of citizens or anything that might be the actual makings even of a one sided “deal.” The main topic of conversation appears to be new concessions for American companies in the Russian oil industry, which remains heavily reliant on western technology to remain productive. A particular source of discussion was a possible series of deals for American companies to participate in Russia oil exploration in parts of the Russia-claimed arctic which are now accessible because of global warming. Indeed, oil futures are currently trending down on the expectation that more unsanctioned Russian oil will soon be coming on the market.
Meanwhile the US has pressed the Ukrainians, who are excluded from the Riyadh, with an entirely different set of demands.