Reality Check

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You’ve probably heard a lot about how, in the wake of the Georgia crisis, we need to allow Ukraine into NATO. This is from the International Herald Tribune back in June …

According to polls conducted recently by the independent Democratic Initiatives Foundation in Kiev, 59 percent of Ukrainians would vote against joining NATO, up from 53 percent last December, while 22 percent would vote in favor, down from 32 percent.

Other polls have shown similar levels of support.

Now, one point to bear in mind. There’s a profound division between east and west in Ukraine — with the east leaning strongly toward Russia and the west leaning toward further integration with the West. So in western Ukraine, support undoubtedly runs much higher. Still, to the extent we’re dealing with Ukraine as a unified country, which we are if we’re planning on agreeing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, then the fact that NATO membership has very thin support in the country should play into the calculus.

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