This is fairly obvious from looking at the polls. And I suspect more detailed questioning would prove it. But it’s worth noting a key factor in the GOP primary race that has not often been stated explicitly: that is, that the two big events of the season — the collapse of Rudy and the resurgence of McCain — seem to be directly related. McCain’s gains seem to be more or less directly in proportion to Rudy’s collapse.
Nor is it that surprising when you consider that they are the two candidates running most clearly on national security (though with different emphases) and with the greatest apparent heterodoxy on the GOP social values catechism.
