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In this post I’m going to suggest something that is possible but still unlikely. But it would be a big enough deal that I think it’s worth having in the back of your mind as we move into the 2024 election season. It’s become a cliche that House Republicans are beset by division, dysfunction and general comedy. In a way this has been the story for years and yet, despite the antics, total indifference to doing the actual work of governing and more, they still seem to do okay. And yet, I think there’s some argument that this Congress is in a different category. The entire 118th Congress has been one long-running shutdown drama. Mike Johnson is now effectively running the House with Democratic votes. Then there’s the indicator which is harder to brush off: a non-trivial number of Republican representatives are just quitting. In a couple cases, we’ve seen them quit without even having a new gig lined up. Apparently more may go.
Then you’ve got the seemingly unrelated Trump takeover of the RNC. Let’s set aside the very important issues of corruption, cronyism and creeping strongmanism. There’s every sign that Trump and his family are going to steer significant amounts of the RNC’s money into a legal slush fund for Trump and his various co-defendants. It’s hard to imagine this won’t further depress giving to the RNC. Some donors won’t care. They either like it or are trying to curry favor. But some donors definitely will care. They either won’t give as much or they’ll direct their funds into other super PACs.
Trump’s new family managers at the RNC instituted widespread layoffs on arrival (laid off staffers still have the opportunity to reapply for their old jobs). It’s conceivable they will replace the canned staffers with better people. But it’s hard to see why that would be a logical assumption. And even if it were true, just the disruption and dislocation would have real consequences.
Parties aren’t what they used to be. But the two party committees still play an important mobilization role and an important role supporting state parties. If the RNC is significantly weakened or turned into a Trump legal defense fund, that has big implications for the whole election.
Even when you step back and look at the rest of the party committees there’s a similar picture. Democratic House and Senate committees are significantly outraising Republican ones. The NRCC and the NRSC are still under standard management, as far as I know. But the money differential is still important.
I don’t think we can count out the possibility that a combination of demoralization and division, structural breakdown and insufficient funding could lead to a dramatic underperformance in GOP congressional and other campaigns this year. Again, I’m not predicting this. I definitely would not bet on it. There’s a very decent chance Republicans could have a trifecta next year, though I’m increasingly dubious about their chances in the House. We can just look back to 2016. The presidential campaign was a total clown show, led by three different campaign managers in succession. Congressional candidates wavered back and forth over what to do about their presidential candidate. And yet, when the dust settled Republicans controlled everything.
But it’s sort of like playing Jenga. After you pull a few pieces out of the tower it starts to get unstable. That’s just a fact. And they’ve already pulled out a few pieces. To use a slightly different metaphor, that mix of division, committee breakdown and underfunding can catalyze each other. But back to Jenga. You can only pull out so many pieces.
Think about it this way. If something like I’ve described did happen, I think it’s pretty clear people would be saying that all the signs were there and people didn’t put them together or draw the obvious conclusion.
Just something to keep in the back of your mind.