I need to start these kinds of posts by saying: No. I absolutely do not believe Tom Cotton will lose his reelection campaign. But even races that aren’t in contention can give you a read on the partisan climate. The Cotton campaign just released an internal poll showing him 11 points ahead of Democrat Hallie Shoffner — 50% to 39%. A Libertarian candidate has 4% support and 7% are undecided. That’s a solid lead. And a result any candidate would be happy with. Except when you remember that Trump won the state with 64% of the vote two years ago and Cotton won reelection with 67% of the vote in 2020. In 2022, John Boozman won with 66% of the vote. Cook appears to list Arkansas as an R+15 state. And they’d know. But in terms of actual election results, it certainly seems more like an R+30 state. In any case, the point is clear: This is a big level of underperformance in an extremely red state.
The critical additional factor is that this is an internal poll. You only release internal campaign polls for a specific campaign purpose. In a case like this it is to demonstrate that you’re doing better than conventional wisdom suggests or to calm worries. So you release a +11 poll because people may worry it’s more like a +6 race.
There have only been five polls of this race all year — two from Cotton, one from Shoffner, one from the right-leaning J.L. Partners and one independent one from early-mid August. That last one conducted by Hendrix College actually showed Shoffner up three points — Shoffner 47%, Cotton 44%.
In fact, the same Cotton pollster who just got an 11 point race polled the race in February and got a 22 point margin. Here’s what pollster Landon Wall said when he posted the new results to Twitter this afternoon.
Senator Tom Cotton maintains a double-digit lead in Arkansas, 50% to 39%, in a new GrayHouse poll of likely voters.
As Arkansans learn more about Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner, her image has begun to tank. The number of voters who view her unfavorably is up 10 points in just two months. In their own words, voters point to her record on immigration: “She would trade 5 Americans for 1 illegal immigrant.”
Meanwhile, Cotton’s image is improving, with his favorables increasing 6% since last month.
Cotton’s image is improving! Lol. Note that that earlier poll from last month wasn’t released. What was the margin in that one?
In any case, you get the idea. It’s super hard for Republicans to lose a Senate race in Arkansas in the Trump era. And I don’t expect them to this year. But 50% shows the extent of the partisan shift, even in a state like Arkansas.
