Bellwethers

Just broad overview. We’re starting to get a view of a lot of key counties in Florida and to a lesser extent in Virginia. In a situation like this you look at those key counties and see whether each guy is under- or over-performing their party’s totals in 2008. Obama seems to be keeping his pace in a lot of them. And some critical counties where Romney would need to be really racking up votes he doesn’t seem to be. Again, this is early. He could definitely win. The whole thing could turn. But what we might call the ‘internals’ of these states totally don’t look terribly promising for Romney. And these are the states he must win — really VA, NC and FLA — to even be in the running once we get to the midwestern states.