We appear to have a very high casualty mass shooting unfolding in Lewiston, Maine. CNN reports that there are at least 16 fatalities and as many as 60 additional wounded. There appears to be a single gunman who opened fire at at least two three separate locations. The gunman is apparently still at large. And the entire city of Lewiston remains under a shelter in place order. There are lots of scattered reports, some of which seem contradictory or poorly sourced. But those seem to be the essential details as of this moment.

Late Update: NBC and Fox are now reporting at least 22 fatalities … the upshot of all the reports is that police in Lewiston were overwhelmed by the situation. They’ve had to call in state and federal manpower to assist with the manhunt. Police from other jurisdictions and states are moving in to assist. If you’re not from the northeast this is very far from anything that can be called a large city. So the time to get there is significant.

From TPM Reader ES …

I had a hard time articulating this for myself — but now it’s clearer: the political and strategic confusion for everyone stems from the fact that what Hamas did to Israelis is not “resistance” but something else. It’s not even so-called asymmetric warfare or terror bombings. It’s not something that past resistance or anticolonial or liberation movements used to do. It’s something completely outside of it. In fact it’s more the kind of atrocities that victorious States or armies perpetrate.

We may have a Speaker but we don’t have a podcast. Blame House Republicans. Much like last week, our incomparable Josh Marshall Podcast cohost Kate Riga has been on the Hill all day reporting. We’re a small team with many hats to wear but we’ll be back to our normal podcasting schedule next week.

If you’ve been following Kate’s liveblogging today and love her work, as well as her insights on the podcast, you should consider becoming a TPM member to help our team continue to grow!

Moments from now Mike Johnson of Louisiana will become Speaker of the House and I just found out that Johnson and his wife have a podcast about ‘religious conservatism’, basically a heavy focus on abortion bans, opposing gay marriage and the like. Before entering Congress Johnson was a ‘religious liberty’ activist. It’s on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and the rest. You have to figure that opposition researchers are going to be listening to it pretty closely. The first episode I’m listening to is Episode 12 “The Truth about January 6th that You’ve Never Been Told”. After that there’s Episode 14 “Post-Roe America: What Happens Now?” Johnson supports an absolute national ban on abortions.

It certainly *seems* – and I stress *seems* – like Republicans have finally managed to thread the Speaker needle and will elect Mike Johnson of Louisiana in a couple hours. When the caucus did a roll call late yesterday evening a few voted present but none voted against him. But 20 or so weren’t there. Those who were put on a big show of unity in a late evening press conference and the consensus seems to be that it’s happening. There’s a bit of uncertainty created by that non-trivial number not showing up for that final key vote. But no members have made any announcements or moves overnight or this morning that suggest they’re going to oppose Johnson on the floor or take any steps to halt his momentum.

My best guess is it probably happens. But given the events of the last three weeks we can’t be certain until we see the actual vote.

How did they finally pull this off?

Eight years ago Will Saletan said, “The GOP is a failed state. Donald Trump is its warlord.” There’s probably no short summary, phrase or aphorism I’ve repeated more times on TPM. Because it’s that good. Today we’re seeing another permutation and illustration of that enduring reality.

Yesterday and today the GOP went back to the well to find a completely new set of Speaker candidates and, they hoped, a new Speaker designee. After multiple rounds, Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota was elected as the caucus’s choice. He then asked for a roll call of who would actually vote for him on the House floor. He came up more than twenty votes short.

Was there a writers’ strike on this new episode of the Caucus series? Because this sounds like a crib from an episode that ran the weekend before last when just the same thing happened to Steve Scalise. Sure enough within an hour or so we’re now hearing chatter that only Rep. Mike Johnson (LA), the guy who lost in the final vote, could get to 217. So only the guy who just lost can hope to win. Got it? Again, it’s a script cribbed from ten days ago.

TPM Reader EK steps back and surveys the damage done by the trio of Trump lawyers pleading guilty:

My gosh. These are three big names. All three have now admitted to fraudulent claims of election theft. 

These are obviously major developments in the legal case against Trump. And that’s how this is largely being reported, as it should be. What I’m seeing less of, although maybe that will change now that we’ve got three, is just how damning this is to Trump’s continued claims of a stolen election.

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss Jim Jordan’s collapse and what’s next for House Republicans as they flail to elect a speaker

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

I mentioned in this week’s podcast that the current state of the House GOP Speaker debacle-ship reminds me of the day Denny Hastert became Speaker. Hard on the heels of a disappointing (Clinton-Lewinsky) scandal mid-term, in rapid succession one Speaker and one Speaker designate were blown out of the water by extra-marital affairs. In a rush to safety, as the financial journalists have it, Rep. Denny Hastert was elected Speaker essentially by affirmation. The one thing Republicans wanted more than anything was a return to calm and Hastert’s biography and demeanor offered it. Certainly someone as frumpy and avuncular as normie embodiment Hastert wouldn’t be off cheating on his wife or bringing the caucus into disrepute. So Hastert it was.

Obviously, it didn’t turn out quite as expected. But that’s how it looked at the time.

I want to note several interconnected developments in the news coming out of the Middle East today.

Already battered by his ongoing criminal prosecution and attempted judicial coup, Benjamin Netanyahu’s standing with the Israeli public appears to have been shattered by the October 7th massacres in southern Israel. In such a perilous position, Netanyahu’s allies in and out of government have been spreading various stab-in-the-back type storylines seeking to evade responsibility for the events of October 7th.

The best way I can describe this is that Israel has its own version of the Fox News-rooted right wing big lie machine that Americans are familiar with here. That has been in overdrive for the last three weeks. It has included the government briefing reporters against the country’s security establishment, placing the blame for the massacres squarely on the IDF and Shin Bet, the country’s domestic intelligence and security service.