Since I spend time, for better or worse, swimming in the swill of right wing influencers and Trumpists, I’m often able to see things before they go fully mainstream — or rather before their existence gets picked up in mainstream media. Just over the last few days there’s been a burst of claims that something is not quite right about the Ukaine War, that the whole thing might be made up. Perhaps it’s a potemkin war. Maybe the Ukrainians are just crisis actors, as we sometimes hear claimed about the victims of mass shootings in the United States. The “questions” are characteristically vague and open-ended, designed to sow doubt without stipulating to any clearly disprovable claim.

The particular claim or question is, where are the pictures? Why isn’t there more war reporting as we’ve seen with every other war. How is it world leader after world leader is able to visit Kyiv in relative safety?

I haven’t published so many reader replies in a while. But I’m doing so in this case because I find them very interesting and think some of you will too. But there’s a bit more than that. These discussions help me understand with more clarity some basic discussions we’re having as a society about artificial intelligence. They also help me line these discussions up with my own thoughts about the nature and utility of knowledge, the validation of theories by their ability to predict experimental results, and so on.

From TPM Reader FP …

I’ve worked for decades on language models, as a researcher in academia and industry, and as a research manager whose teams have brought language models into products several years before the current excitement. I’m enjoying your commentaries on the topic, so I’m writing with a bit of historical perspective and connections that might be helpful.

The connection between language models and games goes back a long way, arguably to Turing and Shannon. Consider a reader who is shown the words (or letters, the difference is not significant) one by one, from the books in a library, and has to bet on the next still unseen word. If the reader is sufficiently educated in English language and culture, they have an almost sure bet in continuing “… to be or not … ” However, if the text was “… classical concert goers prefer Beethoven to … ” there are several possible continuations, but there’s still some predictability: the following word is more likely to be “Stockhausen” than to be “Cheetos”: text from the library tends to have some thematic coherence, in this case musical preferences, rather than mixing music and snacks. 

A friend sent me an article from back in March 2016 which provides some interesting perspective on the current resurgence of Social Security politics and the various Republicans vying to be the “post-Trump” candidate for President while Trump refuses to leave the stage. It also has particular relevance to Ron DeSantis, which we’ll get to in a moment.

But first some context.

The piece is a Times article from March 2016. So it is early in the Trump takeover of the GOP but when it still wasn’t entirely clear he’d be able to pull it off. The subtext of the article is that while many Republicans focused either on the power of Trump’s chaotic personality or the red meat of immigrant bans and xenophobia to explain his success, there was something else in the mix. There was a whole population of people who had closed the door on ever supporting Democrats but were left entirely cold by the GOP’s reflexive focus on tax cuts, free trade and cutting “entitlements.”

A new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast is live! This week, Josh and Kate discuss the Wisconsin Supreme Court primary election, Senator Jon Tester’s (D-MT) decision to run again and President Biden’s clandestine trip to Kyiv.

You can listen to the new episode of The Josh Marshall Podcast here.

Kate Riga on how the biggest Social Security cutters — Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, etc — are out there doing their thing even as elected Republicans are in high dudgeon over the mere suggestion that the GOP has been trying to undermine Social Security since its inception.

Morning Memo is your daily highly caffeinated jolt of pure TPM news pumped right into your veins. You know you need it.

Donald Trump’s daughter and son-in-law have been subpoenaed by special counsel Jack Smith to appear before a federal grand jury for testimony. The New York Times’ Maggie Haberman and Michael Schmidt have the latest here.

Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump were reportedly both compelled to share testimony on Trump’s various schemes to stay in the White House after he lost the election to President Biden in 2020 and his role in siccing a mob of his supporters attacking the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

I’ve mentioned this many times before. But it’s one of the true privileges of this job to have the asset of this site’s readership as I explore new issues raised in the news. Readers who were only readers for years and now sometimes decades become active participants as the site’s focus shifts to their area of expertise. “20 year reader here,” said one last night, “finally you address a topic I’m an expert in!”

I’ve heard from a range of readers who are top executives and engineers at companies on the forefront of artificial intelligence, computer science academics, people who have some angle of expertise on the topic. I’ve been hearing from more people on the “pro-AI” side of things. But “pro” or “con” doesn’t really do justice to the conversation.

I just wanted to drop this in here because it’s an important set of facts that I suspect will be a big issue both in the coming GOP primary and — if DeSantis gets the GOP nomination — during the 2024 general election.

A week ago I noted that, contrary to press claims that only a few GOP outliers have called for cutting or phasing out Social Security, the great majority of House Republicans had already endorsed doing so during this fiscal year. There’s a lot of press special pleading surrounding proposals for Social Security cuts: It’s only Rick Scott or Ron Johnson or Mike Lee. In fact, such proposals are GOP orthodoxy and have been for decades. The Republican Study Committee, which is a caucus including about three-quarters of House Republicans, endorsed a proposed budget for this fiscal year calling for Social Security privatization, benefit cuts (through changed COLA formulas), raising the retirement age to 70 and more.