I think TPM Reader RR might really be on to something that could be a big thing in the years to come …
Josh, a quick comment on your post “An Eerie Silence,” which I think captures a huge issue. I work in Asia, for one of those giant multinationals. A really significant part of my job is business travel in the region and to and from the home office in the US. Given my location, I’ve been affected by the travel restrictions for quite some time, as well as the work-from-home moves and event cancellations. It’s really been ever-present, something you check and watch constantly when planning travel. Now, it’s moving to a new and more comprehensive phase where all non-essential travel is just out, and work-from-home goes from something you could do if you were worried to something you should do to something you must do.
TPM Reader DF checks in from the post-Brexit UK …
Thanks as usual for you thoughtful coverage of the big picture issues of the day, even if they are not always focused on politics. Coronavirus represents a global challenge, and is a real opportunity for the “adults in the room” to lead. With that in mind, let’s review the response of the UK government (I’m an expat/dual-citizen here, have lived in London for 10+ years, etc).
King County, Washington sends a detailed list of advisories to residents of the county recommending various social distancing practices to slow the spread of the virus. If you’re familiar with social distancing practices, nothing is terribly surprising: people with elevated risk (by age or medical conditions) should avoid large assemblages of people, recommending remote work where possible. Also an update on active cases in the county.
As I’ve noted, we’re getting and closely reading your emails with accounts of events in communities around the country. We’ve been particularly focused on the major epicenter of the outbreak in Washington state. There’s one broad theme in many or all these accounts I’d like to share with you. That is people who are hearing major news from their employers – often major national or multinational corporations-, from the school districts where their kids are in school, in some cases from local government or health authorities even while the federal government remains largely silent.
There’s a huge, huge story unfolding – many communities are already shifting behavior in major ways – and yet we hear little of it from the federal government or to a significant degree even from the news media.
Yesterday a number of major news organizations (including the Post, CNBC and others) reported that the WHO had released a new COVID-19 mortality rate of 3.4% which was significantly higher than earlier estimates.
As reported, this new information was at least significantly misleading.
Billions can’t buy you delegates.
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I’ve written a few times that my greatest fear of a Sanders general election campaign is that it would be one half against Donald Trump and one half against the Democratic party itself. The results last night help us understand some of these liabilities and dynamics. Insurgent candidacies and movements have certain enduring, inherent qualities. The simplest is the belief that there’s something wrong, outdated or corrupt about the organizational leadership you’re trying to overthrow. That’s obvious. Otherwise, why are you an insurgent?
Sanders is a twofold political figure. He’s been a federal legislator for a quarter century operating within the conventional political system. He’s also been a left activist for almost 60 years. That oppositionist mentality is deep in his political DNA and that of his campaign. It’s one of its core strengths. It’s magnified among his most vocal supporters.
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To state the obvious: Joe Biden now has to be the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Once he showed that he could win a primary, Democratic voters concerned above all about winning in the fall flocked to him; and Bernie Sanders is basically too radical for most of the Cold War-era voters over 40 or 45 years old. Of course, nothing is certain in politics these days, but if Biden’s lead holds up, what does that mean for the future of the Democratic Party? Read More
11:06 PM: I’m certainly not the first to say this but it remains remarkable how clearly support for Biden and Sanders comes down to key demographic groups. African Americans have been critical to Biden. Hispanic voters are a big strength for Sanders. Biden absolutely dominating in the Mid-Atlantic and the South and doing well in New England. Sanders winning big in the West. Seemingly decisively in California and ahead, though not by a big margin, in Texas.
11:04 PM: California appears to go Sanders. Pretty certain he wins it though not all the networks are calling it. Exit polls show Sanders winning California’s Hispanic voters by a big big margin.
9:29 PM: Just to bring us up to date, Joe Biden is having a night way beyond almost anyone’s expectations. Huge wins in Virginia, North Carolina and a bunch of Southern states. Biden at least for now is holding leads in Minnesota and Massachusetts. But it’s a much tighter race in Texas – with Sanders holding on to a lead. Sanders has a win in Colorado … California remains the big, big prize. The win in Colorado and the lead in Texas suggests that California is not going to get whipsawed in some Biden surge. But we don’t know. Dramatically different picture than what people assumed a week ago.
A longtime reader who is a CEO in tech manufacturing describes the knock-on effects of COVID-19:
The disruption to our supply chain is … just bewildering. It may be that it is massive. It may be that it is just bizarre? But at the moment, there is just confusion.
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