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About that Big Israeli Intel Story in the Times

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December 1, 2023 1:22 p.m.
11 November 2023, Israel, Tel Aviv: Annalena Baerbock (Bündnis90/Die Grünen), Foreign Minister of Germany, is welcomed by Benny Gantz, Minister without portfolio in Netanyahu's war cabinet. Against the backdrop of ... 11 November 2023, Israel, Tel Aviv: Annalena Baerbock (Bündnis90/Die Grünen), Foreign Minister of Germany, is welcomed by Benny Gantz, Minister without portfolio in Netanyahu's war cabinet. Against the backdrop of the Gaza war, Baerbock wants to hold talks on the liberation of Hamas hostages and humanitarian aid for the civilian population in Gaza during her trip. Photo: Michael Kappeler/dpa (Photo by Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images) MORE LESS

Yesterday The New York Times published a major article about Hamas’ October 7th massacres in southern Israel. If you haven’t had a chance to read it, I’m going to provide a brief summary and then share a few thoughts on how to contextualize the news.

The gist is that Israel had a lot of intelligence about Hamas’ plans to mount an attack something like the one that occurred on October 7th. And in the last year, Israeli intelligence got ahold of plans for an attack pretty much exactly like the one that unfolded on October 7th. (The Israelis gave the plan, some forty pages in length, the code name “Jericho Wall.”) But mid-level and, in some cases, high-level intelligence and military leaders dismissed the intelligence, considering it either aspirational, something Hamas lacked the resources to accomplish or something that conflicted with its current strategy of seeking “quiet” to focus on effective governance within Gaza.

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