So much is in flux right now that it’s hard to keep everything straight, but here’s an important update. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) will support the nomination of Dawn Johnsen to head the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel. Johnsen is a professor at Indiana University–one of Lugar’s constituents–and, as such, it makes sense that Lugar would be a swing vote.
Assuming nobody in the Democratic caucus (save, perhaps, it’s newest member) chooses to obstruct, that leaves Democrats one vote shy of the 60-votes needed to break a potential Republican filibuster. And that doesn’t account for the fact that a number of Republicans (moderates, and others who are on the record opposing the filibuster of presidential nominees) have yet to break silence.
Earlier today once and current Democrat Arlen Specter said he opposes Johnsen’s nomination, but his staff was unable to confirm just yet whether that means he’d support a filibuster or not.