Does Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), who lost the GOP primary for Senate in a stunning upset two weeks ago to Christine O’Donnell, have a chance if he gets back into the general election as a write-in candidate? According to a new Rasmussen poll, the answer is no. Furthermore, it seems that he would more likely siphon votes away from Democrat Chris Coons, rather than hinder O’Donnell.
The numbers: Coons 49%, O’Donnell 40%, and Castle 5%. The survey of likely voters has a ±4.5% margin of error. In the previous Rasmussen poll from two weeks ago, just after O’Donnell won the primary, Coons led O’Donnell by 53%-42%.
From the pollster’s analysis: “Rasmussen Reports did ask Castle supporters who they would vote for in a two-person race and virtually all said either Coons or not sure.”
The pollster’s analysis also explains their methodology for such an unusual match-up: “Polling for write-in campaigns is always challenging, so results should be interpreted with caution. For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Coons and O’Donnell without mentioning Castle. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Castle’s name was mentioned.”
Castle is publicly mulling an indy bid, after he lost the primary to O’Donnell thanks to national Tea Party groups that attacked his moderate positions. Polls have consistently shown that he would be ahead of Coons if he had been the Republican nominee, while Coons easily leads O’Donnell. If he decides to run, Castle has until this Thursday to register his new candidacy with the state election commission.
