There’s no analyzing Judge Cannon’s latest ruling in Florida. It’s absurd on its face and really makes no attempt to suggest its anything other than absurd. It’s an assertion of power rather than judicial interpretation. The Judge has now ordered a retired federal judge to review and recommend to her which highly classified documents should be covered by the executive privilege of a private citizen in Florida against the law enforcement and national security mandates of the President of the United States. I saw a respected legal commentator say this raises serious separation of power issues. That’s like saying turning someone’s body inside out might be harmful to their health. Judge Cannon further arrogates to herself the decision over what documents are actually classified. She won’t take the government’s word for which documents are or should be classified. Notably the former President has made no claim in court that he declassified anything. So on what basis the documents would not or should not be classified or on what basis a trial court judge in Florida could determine this is quite unclear.

Remember that there are remedies and processes that get into this at trial or prior to a trial. But no one has brought any charges against anyone. The only issue at the moment is the federal government has recovered its property and is using it to conduct both a national security and potentially criminal investigation.

From TPM Reader PP …

I just wanted to add a slightly different perspective to how women feel post-Dobbs and one reason for their anger.  I am a lesbian.  I have never been pregnant, I have never wanted to become pregnant.  I can have all the casual sex I want without being in danger of getting pregnant, so abortion doesn’t matter to me personally except … I can still be raped and end up pregnant as a result. 

It’s a given that this new GOP governor (with presidential ambitions) tactic of shipping migrants and asylum-seekers to symbolic “liberal” parts of the country as a sort of “own-the-libs” performance art is gross, degrading and the kind of thing that awful people do. That’s a given. But I’m very curious about this latest stunt by Ron DeSantis. First of all, Martha’s Vineyard? Again, it’s using these scared and generally helpless people as a stunt guffaw. But is this legal? In some cases migrants might be perfectly happy to be transported from Texas to New York. Maybe they have relatives there. Maybe the social climate seems more inviting. Who knows? But there’s news coming out today that these people shipped to Martha’s Vineyard were told they were being sent to Boston to get special job permits.

From TPM Reader JS …

As a native Kansan, my astonishment began with the media reaction day after KS primary where the mostly ladies in KS “surprised” many and even “shocked” others. Really? No polls but we knew registrations by mostly younger women spiked day after Dobbs and continued upward until the election. In one KS county, Douglas, home of KU and fondly labeled “one of the most liberal counties in the US”, the vote was roughly 80% no to 20% yes. My native county, rural, strongly Republican, Catholic, the vote was far closer than recent elections.

TPM Reader GX (not her initials) on the current Dobbs moment

I’ve listened with interest to your discussion of Dobbs and the political fallout, and I wanted to add my perspective. I’m a middle-aged lady, late Gen X, professional, no kids. 

One of the biggest generational difference I’ve noticed – comparing my group of female friends and women in their late teens/early twenties is how younger women don’t have the internalized shame around sex and female bodies that many in my generation carry. This really came into focus for me with this: Women allege sexual misconduct by Burger Records musicians – Los Angeles Times (latimes.com)

Kate Riga and I spent most of today’s episode of the podcast marveling at what on earth Lindsey Graham was thinking or smoking when he decided to push abortion even further to the center of the national campaign dialog. Nicole Lafond discusses the issue below, with Mike Pence getting on board with Graham’s proposal. What really surprises me though is Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Ted Bud who’s running for a Senate seat in North Carolina.

With the morning we have a bit more clarity on the national abortion ban Lindsey Graham announced last night and says he will be introducing today in the Senate. It appears to be a national ban on abortions past 15 weeks, with as yet unspecified exceptions. It’s still possible that the number will be 20 weeks. We’ll have to see that detail. This NBC News piece explains the strategy, which is more or less what we thought: an updated version of the GOP playbook over the last couple decades which is to move the debate from absolute bans, where their position is overwhelmingly unpopular, to “late term” abortions where a broad swathe of the public gets more squeamish and uncertain.

I’m still trying to understand the precise details of this. But Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) just announced that he will introduce a national abortion ban bill in the Senate tomorrow. The news just surfaced a short time ago. And I’m still seeing conflicting reports as to whether his bill is a ban at 15 weeks or 20 weeks. The first report was from TPM alum Alice Ollstein.

Over the last couple weeks we’ve seen write-ups pointing to the possibility or probability that polls in 2022 will underestimate Republican strength just as they did in 2020. Now Nate Cohn has one in The New York Times. Cohn’s analysis is particularly interesting to me since he’s been a fairly consistent skeptic of polls in recent cycles in terms of their ability to accurately gauge the strength of the Trump coalition. G. Elliott Morris had a similar write-up in The Economist last week. Philip Bump kicked the tires on Morris’s claims in the Post. While they break down the numbers, the gist is pretty straight-forward: If you take the polling error from 2016 and 2020 and plug it into our current polls you go from Dems being in a strong position for holding and even expanding their senate majority to more like a 50-50 odds of holding the chamber at all. On the House, a GOP majority and maybe a significant one is basically a given.

A friend of mine pointed out to me this tweet from the head of Leonard Leo’s new “Honest Elections” outfit, the one that was recently given more than a billion dollars. He’s referring to the “independent legislature theory” the right is now trying to push in a case before the Supreme Court.