Gallup numbers from twelve important swings states in the 2012 election show a virtual tie between President Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, where other Republican candidates fall to the President in a matchup. Romney bests Obama by a single point, 48 – 47 in combined data from Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Against former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Obama is up by 14 points.
Gallup trial heats for the 2012 general election between Obama and Romney have consistently shown a close race across five national polls conducted in August, September, October, December, and now in January, as well as in three swing-state polls conducted since October. Thus, even as Republican voters’ support for various candidates for their party’s nomination has fluctuated substantially, the preferences of all registered voters for Obama or Romney nationally and in key swing states have remained quite stable…The next major campaign event is Tuesday’s Florida primary, which Romney now appears poised to win. If Romney does win in the Sunshine State, the observed pattern of national Republican preferences so far this election cycle suggests he will once again become the front-runner. If that occurs, the national race at this stage will be close, because Obama and Romney remain essentially neck and neck in key swing states and nationally, as they have been for months.
