Neither Nate Silver nor Princeton University’s Sam Wang is backing down in their ongoing feud over the veracity of their forecasting models.
Silver penned a lengthy critique for Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire last week, and Wang provided his own extensive rebuttal Monday on Political Wire.
“He has made a number of factual and conceptual errors,” Wang wrote in reference to Silver. “If an experienced analyst like him could make those misreadings, so could many people.”
Wang then lays out five points on which he believes Silver has misunderstood his model. He also, on more than one occasion, notes that his forecast has been often been “superior to” Silver’s Five Thirty Eight forecast, dating back to 2008 and particularly regarding Senate races.
“Of perhaps greatest interest is the fact that on Election Eve in 2012, PEC called every close Senate race correctly – 10 out of 10,” Wang wrote. “Silver is protesting against a model that has consistently matched or outperformed his own calls since he came onto the scene (see 2008, 2010, and 2012).”
For his part, Silver told TPM last week that he understands Wang’s model — he just doesn’t believe it works.
“I think he’s taking a model that is flawed in its design in some very profound ways,” Silver said, “and mistaking that as a feature.”
Silver is floundering for anything because he simply doesn’t have the academic background that Wang has. Wang outperformed Silver consistently in 2010’s midterms while Silver crashed and burned on the close races. We are once again in midterms. Silver’s model is great in national electoral contests, he just doesn’t model statewide elections well when it’s close.
Can we just ignore this until November and then crown someone Biggest Brain and give the other guy his Runner Up walking papers?
Can’t we all just get along? I think both of them are intelligent and their models are both good. Obviously I prefer Wang’s model now since it shows the Dems holding on, but practically nobody else is saying that.
I also wonder if Wang harbors some jealousy at Silver’s financial success.
I wonder why TPM never puts out a picture of Wang. Too hard to find a picture that makes him look like a doof?
Further to the above: in what way is this not a slap-fight between two really sharp guys whose expertise slightly differs? And, if all it is, is a slap-fight, it’s definitely inside baseball–NOT a headline.