New Iowa Senate Poll Shows GOP With Sizable Lead

State Sen. Joni Ernst speaks to supporters at a primary election night rally after winning the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, Tuesday, June 3, 2014, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
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A new poll in the Iowa Senate race shows Republican Joni Ernst with a more than six-point lead over Democrat Bruce Braley.

Ernst earned 48 percent of the vote in the Loras College poll of likely voters released Friday well above Braley’s 41.7 percent. More than 10 percent said they are undecided. It follows a Rasmussen Reports poll, also released Friday, that showed the race in a statistical dead heat.

Braley has largely been viewed as the favorite in the race. The Cook Political Report still ranks the contest as Lean Democrat. The RealClearPolitics average gives Braley a 4.3 percentage-point advantage.

The Loras College poll, conducted from June 4 to 5, surveyed 600 likely voters. Its margin of error is 4 percentage points.

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Notable Replies

  1. First stiff Iowa wind that blows that gawd-awful wig off is gonna shave off 5 points, easy.

    I hate to be an appearance nag, but man, that thing is nasty!

  2. If Iowans put this clown into office then they deserve every dollar of what stupidity she’ll spout - and what damage she’ll do. Can they allow the pigs to vote in Iowa? They might get a more intelligent outcome.

  3. No way. This is an outlier … more to do with the GOP primary victory, name in the news this week than anything.

  4. The fine print:

    The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely 2014 general election voters; statewide results have a 4 percent margin of error.  The survey was conducted June 4-5, 2014.

    Likely voter sample included only those who voted in the 2010 general
    election or who have registered to vote since and indicated likeliness
    to vote.

    	 
    

    Survey includes both landlines (80 percent) and cell phones (20 percent). 
    The survey was conducted using live operator interviews through a contracted professional call center.

    	 
    

    In addition, the survey was balanced using historical voting patterns
    for partisanship, as well as demographic variables such as age, gender
    and geography.

    	 
    

    Script development and methodology used for the survey received input
    from Republican campaign consultant Steve Grubbs, and Democrat campaign
    consultant Dave Heller.

  5. In other words, a joke poll.

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