It took the biggest mass shooting in the country’s history, but Congress is debating a gun control provision — albeit a narrow one — more seriously now than we’ve seen them do in years.
The proposal–authored by Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)– would block gun sales to individuals on the no-fly and selectee lists in hopes that could stop would-be terrorists from carrying out attacks on U.S. soil. Individuals who felt their Second Amendment rights were being infringed upon could appeal the process.
The latest bipartisan gun-control bill before the U.S. Senate is just a sliver of what Democrats had once hoped for. Long gone are calls to resurrect the assault weapons ban. Most recognize now that even narrow provisions to expand background checks on sales made at gun shows are going nowhere. But the latest attack in Orlando–with the shooter pledging allegiance to the Islamic State after being self radicalized–has made it nearly untenable for Republicans and Democrats to do nothing.
In the last week, Democrats in the Senate have filibustered. Democrats in the House have staged a sit-in. On Monday, the Senate voted on four gun-related bills. All of them–which were rehashed versions of previous bills–failed.
The Collins’ compromise may be the Senate’s most serious attempt to do something in years. Unlike other proposals, the legislation is bringing together a wide array of Republicans and Democrats – many of whom have been on opposite sides of the gun debate in years past.
The unique circumstances surrounding the Orlando shooting seem to have much to do with that. Republican senators appear acutely aware of the precarious and competing tensions before them. For the first time in decades, Republicans concerns about national security may be trumping some fear of the National Rifle Association.
“I’m not worried about the NRA rating. I’m worried about my country. I’m worried about being able to stop a terrorist attack more than I’m worried about me,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), a national security hawk who owns an AR-15 and is a co-sponsor of the Collins compromise.
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), who is facing re-election in a swing state, is another co-sponsor of the Collins bill. So is Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who notably voted against the background check expansion bill in 2013 despite repeated pleas from former Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ), who’d been shot in the head and suffered serious injuries at a local outreach event in Tucson.
“I think you’re watching the grip of the NRA loosen on this place day by day,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), who was instrumental in leading the call for gun reform after the Sandy Hook Elementary shooting in his own state. “I think it’s significant that Susan and three other Republicans have worked on a proposal that’s meaningful, and I’m hopeful we’ll be able to iron out any rough edges that remain.”
Republican support signals a major shift for some within the party, but the legislation, which could be voted on as early as Thursday, still has an almost impossible distance to go to pass.
On Wednesday, after Collins presented her legislation to Republican leaders, many were still calling for changes.
“You’ve got to be satisfied that the due process provisions are sufficient and strong,” Sen. John Thune (R-SD) told reporters in describing his concerns about the bill.
Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) said that he believed he could potentially come around to the Collins’ bill if he could ensure that people who were wrongly on the no-fly list had an easier time getting their gun.
“It’s the same issue that has always been there and that is an appropriate due process. And yet, I think there is enough flexibility … that there is a way to solve this problem,” Corker said.
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX)–who had put forth his own legislation that would temporarily block gun sales to suspected terrorists and then give the Justice Department three days to show probable cause to bar them from obtaining the gun – said he has been talking with Collins about how her legislation could be amended to attract more Republicans.
“Well, obviously it’s a terrible tragedy, and we’d like to figure some way to come together and to demonstrate we’re serious about addressing it in a way that might actually prevent something like this from happening in the future, but obviously there is a lot of parts to this,” Cornyn said.
Amending the legislation, however, comes with its own set of risks. Collins has built a fragile coalition of Democratic support. Without it, the legislation would sink.
“Here they got five Republicans on it and it’s a clear compromise,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), who was skeptical of the “due process” argument. “I just hope we can get a vote on it.”
On Wednesday, Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) signaled he’d be supporting the bill and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said that he’d be thrilled to see a bipartisan gun bill finally pass in the Senate.
“I think the public is aroused, and I think our colleagues on the other side of the aisle are beginning to feel it and willing to tell the NRA ‘we can’t always take the extreme positions that you have,'” Schumer said.
Thune, a Republican, said that he was a little disappointed that the NRA came out so soon against Collins’ bill before the outline was officially finished.
“My preference would be that they wait until we get final language before they react to it too much,” Thune said.
But the NRA’s strong opposition still seemed to be weighing on many Republican senators.
“I’ll vote what I believe is the strongest Second Amendment position,” Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) said as he dipped into Cornyn’s office after being asked about whether he’d back Collins’ bill.
Collins will need more than a dozen Republicans to come along with her if she is actually going to get the Senate to stiff the NRA.
“I am skeptical there are 14 Republicans who are willing to break with the NRA and support this proposal. I do worry that the vote on this will just be groundhog day,” Murphy said.
